Model Predictions
| Model | UC Santa Barbara Gauchos | Sacramento State Hornets | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 76.6% | 23.4% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 64.0% | 36.0% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 75.3% | 24.7% | -6.1 | ✓ (1.1 off) |
| Pythagorean | 68.2% | 31.8% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 97.0% | 3.0% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 82.1% | 17.9% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 82.1% | 17.9% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 62.9% | 37.1% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Sacramento State Hornets -5 (87-92). Predictions use season-end ratings.
UC Santa Barbara Gauchos
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Little * | 35 | 3-9 | 1-5 | 10-10 | 5 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 25 | +0.1 |
| A. Mahaney * | 33 | 6-12 | 2-5 | 3-5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 8 | -5.4 |
| C. Smith * | 30 | 5-8 | 5-7 | 2-2 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 19 | +7.3 |
| J. Fontenet II * | 28 | 6-13 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 8 | -6.0 |
| H. Kitenge * | 21 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 | -4.4 |
| Z. Sensley | 15 | 2-5 | 2-5 | 1-2 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 10 | -2.0 |
| M. Simcoe | 14 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | +2.0 |
| C. Shaw | 12 | 3-5 | 1-2 | 2-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 3 | +2.1 |
| E. Kipruto | 11 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | +1.5 |
Sacramento State Hornets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Williams * | 39 | 10-16 | 4-7 | 6-8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 30 | 19 | +1.6 |
| J. Cherry * | 38 | 8-13 | 0-0 | 4-8 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 20 | 18 | +1.0 |
| P. Johnson * | 37 | 7-11 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 11 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 25 | +6.3 |
| J. Summers * | 27 | 3-9 | 1-5 | 3-4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 5 | -2.5 |
| S. O'Neal * | 15 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -8.5 |
| J. Teat | 18 | 0-5 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | +1.1 |
| M. Lavrenov | 12 | 3-3 | 2-2 | 0-1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 8 | +5.7 |
| B. Gardner | 10 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1.8 |
| R. Robinson | 3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1.3 |
* = starter