Michigan

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Also known as: Michigan Wolverines, Michigan

Program History

Coach: John Beilein

2012 Team Stats (28 games)

65.6

PPG

60.4

Opp

+5.2

Margin

44.9%

FG%

35.7%

3P%

73.3%

FT%

30.4

RPG

13.0

APG

10.4

Est. poss./game

68.7

Adj PPG

57.4

Adj Opp PPG

#31

Scoring Rank

Model Outputs

2011-2012

Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model	Output	Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More →	1281 (#36)	-
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More →	1289 (#15)	-
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +101 elo More →	1095 (#57)	HCA +101 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +3.2 More →	+12.4 (#31)	HCA +3.2
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.2 More →	+10.7 (#37)	HCA +3.2
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More →	0.680 (#86)	-
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +19.8 More →	0.907 (#30)	AdjNet +19.8
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +20.0 More →	0.910 (#30)	AdjNet +20.0
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 68.7 \| AdjD 57.4 More →	0.738 (#31)	AdjO 68.7 \| AdjD 57.4
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 65.5 \| AdjD 59.4 More →	0.635 (#58)	AdjO 65.5 \| AdjD 59.4
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More →	0.791 (#31)	Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More →	0.775 (#34)	Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 108 \| GP 33 More →	1259 (#26)	RD 108 \| GP 33

2012 Schedule & Results

Date	Vs/At	Opponent	Result	Score
2011-11-11	vs	Ferris State Bulldogs	W	59 - 33
2011-11-14	vs	Towson Tigers	W	64 - 47
2011-11-17	vs	Western Illinois Leathernecks	W	59 - 55
2011-11-21	@	Memphis Tigers	W	73 - 61
2011-11-22	@	Duke Blue Devils	L	75 - 82
2011-11-23	@	UCLA Bruins	W	79 - 63
2011-11-29	@	Virginia Cavaliers	L	58 - 70
2011-12-03	vs	Iowa State Cyclones	W	76 - 66
2011-12-10	@	Oakland Golden Grizzlies	W	90 - 80
2011-12-13	vs	Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions	W	63 - 50
2011-12-17	vs	Alabama A&M Bulldogs	W	87 - 57
2011-12-22	vs	Bradley Braves	W	77 - 66
2011-12-29	vs	Penn State Nittany Lions	W	71 - 53
2012-01-01	vs	Minnesota Golden Gophers	W	61 - 56
2012-01-05	@	Indiana Hoosiers	L	71 - 73
2012-01-08	vs	Wisconsin Badgers	W	59 - 41
2012-01-11	vs	Northwestern Wildcats	W	66 - 64
2012-01-14	@	Iowa Hawkeyes	L	59 - 75
2012-01-17	vs	Michigan State Spartans	W	60 - 59
2012-01-21	@	Arkansas Razorbacks	L	64 - 66
2012-01-24	@	Purdue Boilermakers	W	66 - 64
2012-01-29	@	Ohio State Buckeyes	L	49 - 64
2012-02-01	vs	Indiana Hoosiers	W	68 - 56
2012-02-05	@	Michigan State Spartans	L	54 - 64
2012-02-08	@	Nebraska Cornhuskers	W	62 - 46
2012-02-12	vs	Illinois Fighting Illini	W	70 - 61
2012-02-18	vs	Ohio State Buckeyes	W	56 - 51
2012-02-21	@	Northwestern Wildcats	W	67 - 55
2012-02-25	vs	Purdue Boilermakers	L	61 - 75
2012-03-01	@	Illinois Fighting Illini	W	72 - 61
2012-03-04	@	Penn State Nittany Lions	W	71 - 65
2012-03-09	vs	Minnesota Golden Gophers	W	73 - 69
2012-03-10	vs	Ohio State Buckeyes	L	55 - 77
2012-03-16	vs	Ohio Bobcats	L	60 - 65

2012 Roster

Show Alumni If everyone stayed four years

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player	Pos	GP	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TO	FGA	Numbers	PM	PM GP	PM/G	PM/40	FG%	3P%	FT%	RAPM	TS%	eFG%
Trey Burke	G	34	36.1	14.8	3.5	4.6	0.9	0.4	2.8	10.9	10.6	38	24	1.6	1.8	42.8	34.9	75.0	1.36	60.2	49.7
T. Hardaway Jr.	G	34	34.2	14.6	3.8	2.1	0.5	0.3	1.9	10.3	9.1	56	24	2.3	2.8	41.0	28.4	71.7	2.12	60.8	47.9
Zack Novak	G-F	34	33.7	9.2	4.5	1.8	0.8	0.1	1.0	6.0	9.4	36	24	1.5	1.9	46.1	38.9	87.8	1.95	70.7	56.9
Evan Smotrycz	F	34	21.1	7.7	4.9	0.9	0.8	0.3	1.4	4.7	8.5	12	24	0.5	1.1	50.0	46.9	76.9	-0.24	71.9	61.9
Stu Douglass	G	34	30.5	7.5	2.6	2.3	0.8	0.1	1.0	5.9	6.3	33	24	1.4	1.9	41.6	34.6	81.5	2.94	59.8	52.7
Jordan Morgan	F	34	24.4	7.3	5.6	0.3	0.6	0.3	1.6	4.9	7.8	58	24	2.4	4.0	63.0	0	54.3	1.75	67.2	63.0
Jon Horford	C	9	10.8	2.7	3.6	0.1	0.3	1.0	0.6	0.9	6.2	4	6	0.7	3.0	25.0	0	100.0	-1.0	123.0	25.0
Matt Vogrich	G	34	10.7	2.3	1.3	0.4	0.4	0.1	0.3	2.0	2.1	-44	24	-1.8	-7.8	37.3	32.7	50.0	-3.74	56.7	49.3
Eso Akunne	G	12	4.0	1.7	0.7	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.3	0.6	1.5	1	7	0.1	2.2	85.7	80.0	100.0	0.07	126.9	114.3
Corey Person	G	10	1.1	1.1	0.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.4	0.8	-3	5	-0.6	-14.5	50.0	0.0	0	-1.17	137.5	50.0
Blake McLimans	C	29	4.4	0.9	0.7	0.0	0.0	0.3	0.2	0.7	1.1	-4	20	-0.2	-2.0	52.6	50.0	0	-0.25	65.8	65.8
Colton Christian	F	19	2.7	0.4	0.3	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.5	0.2	-17	12	-1.4	-24.5	30.0	0	0.0	-2.53	32.2	30.0
Carlton Brundidge	G	15	2.9	0.4	0.5	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.3	0.3	0.5	8	8	1.0	15.9	25.0	0.0	33.3	0.36	56.4	25.0
Josh Bartelstein	G	11	1.3	0.3	0.1	0.3	0.2	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.5	-3	5	-0.6	-15.5	0.0	0.0	0	-1.2	75.0	0.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG