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Indiana Fever

Also known as: Indiana Fever
Program History

2013 Team Stats (38 games)

71.2
PPG
70.4
Opp
+0.7
Margin
39.7%
FG%
33.9%
3P%
78.4%
FT%
32.2
RPG
13.8
APG
12.1
TO
74.1
Est. poss./game
69.2
Adj PPG
69.0
Adj Opp PPG
#6
Scoring Rank

Model Outputs

2013
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More โ†’ 950 (#8) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More โ†’ 971 (#8) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +48 elo More โ†’ 984 (#6) HCA +48 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +3.2 More โ†’ +0.1 (#6) HCA +3.2
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.8 More โ†’ +0.2 (#6) HCA +2.8
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More โ†’ 0.530 (#4) -
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +0.5 More โ†’ 0.513 (#6) AdjNet +0.5
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +0.5 More โ†’ 0.514 (#6) AdjNet +0.5
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 69.2 | AdjD 69.0 More โ†’ 0.504 (#6) AdjO 69.2 | AdjD 69.0
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 70.3 | AdjD 70.0 More โ†’ 0.507 (#6) AdjO 70.3 | AdjD 70.0
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More โ†’ 0.486 (#7) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More โ†’ 0.487 (#7) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 88 | GP 38 More โ†’ 978 (#7) RD 88 | GP 38

2013 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2013-05-24 @ San Antonio Silver Stars W 79 - 64
2013-05-31 vs Atlanta Dream L 77 - 86
2013-06-05 @ New York Liberty L 68 - 75
2013-06-08 vs Phoenix Mercury L 67 - 82
2013-06-12 vs Connecticut Sun L 61 - 73
2013-06-16 @ Washington Mystics L 60 - 64
2013-06-22 vs Chicago Sky L 61 - 71
2013-06-25 @ Atlanta Dream L 60 - 76
2013-06-28 vs Tulsa Shock W 80 - 69
2013-06-30 vs Seattle Storm W 71 - 63
2013-07-06 vs Connecticut Sun W 78 - 66
2013-07-11 vs Minnesota Lynx L 62 - 69
2013-07-13 @ New York Liberty W 74 - 53
2013-07-19 vs Washington Mystics W 77 - 70
2013-07-21 @ Washington Mystics W 65 - 52
2013-07-23 vs New York Liberty L 72 - 77
2013-07-25 @ Tulsa Shock W 71 - 60
2013-08-01 @ Connecticut Sun L 64 - 70
2013-08-03 vs Chicago Sky W 79 - 58
2013-08-06 @ Chicago Sky W 64 - 58
2013-08-08 vs Los Angeles Sparks L 64 - 74
2013-08-10 vs Atlanta Dream W 80 - 66
2013-08-14 @ Phoenix Mercury L 58 - 75
2013-08-16 @ Los Angeles Sparks L 72 - 94
2013-08-17 @ Seattle Storm L 70 - 77
2013-08-21 vs San Antonio Silver Stars W 80 - 63
2013-08-24 @ Minnesota Lynx L 77 - 84
2013-08-30 @ New York Liberty W 73 - 67
2013-09-04 @ Atlanta Dream L 80 - 89
2013-09-06 @ Chicago Sky W 82 - 77
2013-09-07 vs Connecticut Sun W 69 - 60
2013-09-10 vs Washington Mystics L 67 - 69
2013-09-13 vs New York Liberty W 66 - 63
2013-09-15 @ Connecticut Sun L 80 - 82
2013-09-20 @ Chicago Sky W 85 - 72
2013-09-22 vs Chicago Sky W 79 - 57
2013-09-26 @ Atlanta Dream L 79 - 84
2013-09-29 vs Atlanta Dream L 53 - 67

2013 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM GP PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
M. Camby M. Camby - 36 30.4 17.5 7.1 2.3 2.6 0.9 1.7 14.5 14.2 - - - - 40.3 31.8 84.6 - 51.7 44.4
E. Thomas E. Thomas - 35 30.6 14.1 3.5 1.7 0.9 0.7 1.6 11.6 7.6 - - - - 41.0 34.4 80.7 - 52.6 46.4
K. Douglas K. Douglas G 6 28.7 12.3 2.7 1.7 1.2 0.3 2.2 11.2 4.8 - - - - 40.3 30.0 100.0 - 51.5 47.0
Briann January Briann January Forward 38 29.1 9.2 2.4 3.7 1.0 0.2 2.4 9.3 4.9 - - - - 34.7 36.0 81.5 - 45.1 40.3
K. Christmas-Kelly K. Christmas-Kelly F 40 27.1 8.8 4.3 1.2 1.8 0.3 1.5 8.1 6.8 - - - - 37.8 30.3 81.1 - 48.3 42.9
E. Larkins E. Larkins F 40 29.9 8.0 7.9 1.8 1.4 0.4 1.5 5.7 12.3 - - - - 53.5 0 74.5 - 58.7 53.5
E. Phillips E. Phillips G 23 21.4 5.8 1.2 1.6 0.8 0.0 0.9 5.5 3.0 - - - - 34.9 42.2 78.3 - 48.9 45.6
S. Hunter S. Hunter - 32 14.8 5.2 4.2 0.6 0.6 1.1 1.1 5.2 5.3 - - - - 43.5 0 75.9 - 46.5 43.5
L. Clarendon L. Clarendon G 36 19.1 4.8 1.8 1.9 0.5 0.0 1.4 5.9 1.7 - - - - 35.1 31.2 43.3 - 38.1 37.4
J. Pohlen-Mavunga J. Pohlen-Mavunga G 16 13.9 3.1 1.8 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.7 3.2 1.8 - - - - 33.3 30.3 100.0 - 46.6 43.1
S. Goodlett S. Goodlett C 27 8.2 2.3 1.7 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.4 2.5 1.5 - - - - 38.2 0 75.0 - 41.6 38.2
J. Hassell J. Hassell F 23 8.1 1.7 1.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.4 2.5 0.3 - - - - 26.3 0.0 42.1 - 29.1 26.3
S. Marion S. Marion - 6 11.2 1.2 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.8 2.0 0.0 - - - - 16.7 16.7 100.0 - 27.2 20.8

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

Not enough players with both Numbers/Game and RAPM to plot.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG

2013 Shot Zones

2573 located field-goal attempts in 40 games (ESPN). Each zone is coloured by the player with the largest share of the team's made-shot points there (left) and of its misses there (right).

Larkins21% Hunter20% Camby28% Camby29% Camby25% Thomas31% Christmas-Kelly42% January26% Camby59% Camby21%
Points: who the team's points here most likely come from
Larkins16% Clarendon17% Camby24% Camby30% Camby31% Christmas-Kelly31% Christmas-Kelly25% Thomas24% Camby51% Camby20%
Misses: who misses most here

M. CambyE. ThomasBriann JanuaryK. Christmas-KellyE. LarkinsL. ClarendonS. Hunter

Zone FGM-FGA FG% Pts Top scorer Runner-up Most misses Runner-up
Restricted area 507-962 52.7 1014 E. Larkins 21% (214 pts) M. Camby 19% (194 pts) E. Larkins 16% (75 misses) M. Camby 16% (72 misses)
Paint (non-RA) 91-314 29.0 182 S. Hunter 20% (36 pts) M. Camby 16% (30 pts) L. Clarendon 17% (39 misses) K. Christmas-Kelly 15% (34 misses)
Mid-range left 96-287 33.4 192 M. Camby 28% (54 pts) E. Thomas 21% (40 pts) M. Camby 24% (45 misses) E. Thomas 19% (37 misses)
Mid-range center 42-121 34.7 84 M. Camby 29% (24 pts) S. Hunter 24% (20 pts) M. Camby 30% (24 misses) E. Thomas 20% (16 misses)
Mid-range right 64-254 25.2 128 M. Camby 25% (32 pts) E. Thomas 20% (26 pts) M. Camby 31% (59 misses) Briann January 15% (28 misses)
Left corner 3 26-65 40.0 78 E. Thomas 31% (24 pts) Briann January 27% (21 pts) K. Christmas-Kelly 31% (12 misses) E. Thomas 23% (9 misses)
Right corner 3 19-43 44.2 57 K. Christmas-Kelly 42% (24 pts) E. Phillips 26% (15 pts) K. Christmas-Kelly 25% (6 misses) J. Pohlen-Mavunga 21% (5 misses)
Above-break 3 left 72-219 32.9 216 Briann January 26% (57 pts) E. Thomas 25% (54 pts) E. Thomas 24% (36 misses) Briann January 22% (33 misses)
Above-break 3 center 29-101 28.7 87 M. Camby 59% (51 pts) Briann January 14% (12 pts) M. Camby 51% (37 misses) Briann January 11% (8 misses)
Above-break 3 right 67-207 32.4 201 M. Camby 21% (42 pts) E. Phillips 19% (39 pts) M. Camby 20% (28 misses) E. Thomas 19% (26 misses)