Model Predictions
| Model | Indiana Fever | Phoenix Mercury | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 7.5% | 92.5% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 11.8% | 88.2% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 8.1% | 91.9% | +13.4 | ✓ (3.6 off) |
| Pythagorean | 33.5% | 66.5% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 8.0% | 92.0% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 8.0% | 92.0% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 22.2% | 77.8% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Phoenix Mercury +17 (75-58). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Indiana Fever
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erin Phillips * | 32 | 5-10 | 3-6 | 1-2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 7 | - |
| Tamika Catchings * | 30 | 6-15 | 1-4 | 3-4 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 13 | - |
| Karima Christmas-Kelly * | 30 | 1-7 | 0-3 | 4-4 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 3 | - |
| Erlana Larkins * | 29 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 8 | - |
| Briann January * | 23 | 2-10 | 0-2 | 3-3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 2 | - |
| Jeanette Pohlen-Mavunga | 21 | 2-7 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | - |
| Jessica Breland | 14 | 2-8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -1 | - |
| Layshia Clarendon | 11 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Sasha Goodlett | 5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
Phoenix Mercury
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diana Taurasi * | 36 | 4-7 | 1-1 | 3-3 | 6 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 21 | - |
| DeWanna Bonner * | 32 | 5-10 | 1-5 | 4-4 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 14 | - |
| Brittney Griner * | 28 | 5-8 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 13 | - |
| Candice Dupree * | 23 | 7-11 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 11 | - |
| Briana Butler * | 18 | 1-5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | - |
| Alexis Hornbuckle | 17 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | -1 | - |
| Charde Houston | 14 | 3-7 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 2 | - |
| Krystal Thomas | 11 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | - |
| Lynetta Kizer | 10 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | - |
| Jasmine James | 5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | - |
* = starter