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Duke

Season: 2027 preview 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017
Also known as: Duke Blue Devils, Duke
Program History
Coach: Mike Krzyzewski

2018 Team Stats (31 games)

83.3
PPG
68.4
Opp
+14.8
Margin
49.1%
FG%
37.7%
3P%
71.7%
FT%
40.7
RPG
17.2
APG
12.7
TO
-
Est. poss./game
86.6
Adj PPG
64.5
Adj Opp PPG
#2
Scoring Rank

Model Outputs

2017-2018
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 1453 (#7) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1337 (#8) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +95 elo More → 1135 (#23) HCA +95 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.9 More → +23.4 (#2) HCA +2.9
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.8 More → +21.0 (#2) HCA +2.8
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.901 (#7) -
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +31.7 More → 0.975 (#3) AdjNet +31.7
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +32.0 More → 0.976 (#3) AdjNet +32.0
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 86.6 | AdjD 64.5 More → 0.882 (#2) AdjO 86.6 | AdjD 64.5
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 79.7 | AdjD 64.6 More → 0.797 (#2) AdjO 79.7 | AdjD 64.6
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.901 (#4) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.889 (#4) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 91 | GP 37 More → 1323 (#11) RD 91 | GP 37

2018 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2017-11-10 vs Elon Phoenix W 97 - 68
2017-11-11 vs Utah Valley Wolverines W 99 - 69
2017-11-14 @ Michigan State Spartans W 88 - 81
2017-11-17 vs Southern Jaguars W 78 - 61
2017-11-20 vs Furman Paladins W 92 - 63
2017-11-23 vs Portland State Vikings W 99 - 81
2017-11-24 @ Texas Longhorns W 85 - 78
2017-11-26 @ Florida Gators W 87 - 84
2017-11-29 @ Indiana Hoosiers W 91 - 81
2017-12-02 vs South Dakota Coyotes W 96 - 80
2017-12-05 vs Saint Francis Red Wolves W 124 - 67
2017-12-09 @ Boston College Eagles L 84 - 89
2017-12-20 vs Evansville Purple Aces W 104 - 40
2017-12-30 vs Florida State Seminoles W 100 - 93
2018-01-06 @ NC State Wolfpack L 85 - 96
2018-01-10 @ Pittsburgh Panthers W 87 - 52
2018-01-13 vs Wake Forest Demon Deacons W 89 - 71
2018-01-15 @ Miami Hurricanes W 83 - 75
2018-01-20 vs Pittsburgh Panthers W 81 - 54
2018-01-23 @ Wake Forest Demon Deacons W 84 - 70
2018-01-27 vs Virginia Cavaliers L 63 - 65
2018-01-29 vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish W 88 - 66
2018-02-03 @ St. John's Red Storm L 77 - 81
2018-02-08 @ North Carolina Tar Heels L 78 - 82
2018-02-11 @ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets W 80 - 69
2018-02-14 vs Virginia Tech Hokies W 74 - 52
2018-02-18 @ Clemson Tigers W 66 - 57
2018-02-21 vs Louisville Cardinals W 82 - 56
2018-02-24 vs Syracuse Orange W 60 - 44
2018-02-26 @ Virginia Tech Hokies L 63 - 64
2018-03-03 vs North Carolina Tar Heels W 74 - 64
2018-03-08 vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish W 88 - 70
2018-03-09 vs North Carolina Tar Heels L 69 - 74
2018-03-15 vs Iona Gaels W 89 - 67
2018-03-17 vs Rhode Island Rams W 87 - 62
2018-03-23 vs Syracuse Orange W 69 - 65
2018-03-25 @ Kansas Jayhawks L 81 - 85

2018 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM GP PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
M. Bagley III M. Bagley III - 32 33.8 20.6 11.0 1.5 0.8 0.9 2.2 11.5 21.0 382 28 13.6 17.2 61.0 42.9 62.1 3.44 73.5 63.8
Grayson Allen Grayson Allen - 36 35.9 15.6 3.3 4.6 1.8 0.1 2.2 10.2 13.0 440 30 14.7 17.2 40.7 35.1 83.0 6.93 67.4 52.2
G. Trent Jr. G. Trent Jr. - 36 33.8 14.4 4.1 1.4 1.2 0.1 1.1 10.3 9.9 369 30 12.3 15.6 42.3 42.5 85.7 0.52 63.6 54.6
W. Carter Jr. W. Carter Jr. - 36 26.6 13.5 9.0 2.0 0.8 2.1 2.0 7.8 17.6 345 30 11.5 18.4 54.8 41.3 77.5 4.41 71.3 58.2
Trevon Duval Trevon Duval G 36 29.6 10.4 2.0 5.6 1.4 0.1 2.7 8.0 9.0 325 30 10.8 15.6 42.2 32.3 64.8 0.33 59.1 47.4
Jordan Tucker Jordan Tucker - 1 8.0 6.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 3.0 3.0 - - - - 66.7 100.0 50.0 -0.33 77.3 83.3
Marques Bolden Marques Bolden - 28 12.9 4.0 3.7 0.6 0.3 1.0 0.6 2.5 6.5 79 24 3.3 10.9 64.8 0 61.9 -0.45 69.8 64.8
Javin DeLaurier Javin DeLaurier F 32 12.9 3.4 4.0 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.7 1.8 6.7 97 28 3.5 11.7 64.3 14.3 57.6 0.84 78.0 65.2
Alex O'Connell Alex O'Connell - 35 9.8 3.4 1.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.4 2.1 3.0 51 29 1.8 7.4 44.6 45.0 82.4 -1.6 72.4 56.8
Justin Robinson Justin Robinson F 17 4.8 1.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.5 0.3 1.1 1.2 -19 12 -1.6 -15.4 42.1 35.3 25.0 -4.66 55.4 57.9
Antonio Vrankovic Antonio Vrankovic C 14 4.7 1.0 1.1 0.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.9 4 11 0.4 3.1 50.0 0 0 -0.84 87.5 50.0
Jordan Goldwire Jordan Goldwire G 25 6.7 1.0 0.5 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.6 72 21 3.4 22.3 36.4 26.7 100.0 4.47 56.8 45.5
Jack White Jack White - 27 5.9 0.8 1.6 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.7 2.1 38 21 1.8 12.1 45.0 20.0 100.0 -1.03 52.7 50.0
Mike Buckmire Mike Buckmire G 4 1.2 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.0 - - - - 50.0 0 100.0 -1.52 61.5 50.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG