Model Predictions
| Model | Virginia Cavaliers | Duke Blue Devils | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 26.5% | 73.5% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 35.6% | 64.4% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 13.5% | 86.5% | +10.2 | ✗ (12.2 off) |
| Pythagorean | 48.1% | 51.9% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 71.0% | 29.0% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 70.9% | 29.1% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 70.9% | 29.1% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Duke Blue Devils -2 (63-65). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Virginia Cavaliers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Hall * | 39 | 6-15 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 10 | - |
| K. Guy * | 37 | 5-13 | 2-9 | 5-6 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 8 | - |
| T. Jerome * | 36 | 5-15 | 2-6 | 1-2 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 12 | - |
| J. Salt * | 31 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 11 | - |
| I. Wilkins * | 14 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -3 | - |
| D. Hunter | 24 | 6-13 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 5 | - |
| M. Diakite | 10 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | - |
| N. Johnson | 9 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
Duke Blue Devils
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Bagley III * | 40 | 13-18 | 2-4 | 2-3 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 30 | 24 | - |
| G. Allen * | 40 | 2-8 | 0-2 | 1-1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | - |
| G. Trent Jr. * | 40 | 3-11 | 1-5 | 1-2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 0 | - |
| T. Duval * | 37 | 3-7 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 7 | - |
| W. Carter Jr. * | 37 | 6-11 | 1-3 | 1-4 | 15 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 14 | 23 | - |
| J. DeLaurier | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - |
| A. O'Connell | 3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
* = starter