Model Predictions
| Model | Duke Blue Devils | North Carolina Tar Heels | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 72.0% | 28.0% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 58.7% | 41.3% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 60.1% | 39.9% | -2.3 | ✗ (6.3 off) |
| Pythagorean | 51.6% | 48.4% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 65.0% | 35.0% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 66.1% | 33.9% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 66.3% | 33.7% | - | ✗ |
Actual: North Carolina Tar Heels +4 (82-78). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Duke Blue Devils
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Goldwire | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| G. Allen * | 40 | 3-9 | 2-8 | 1-2 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 9 | - |
| M. Bagley III * | 39 | 7-13 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 16 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 24 | - |
| G. Trent Jr. * | 35 | 6-11 | 2-5 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 8 | - |
| W. Carter Jr. * | 28 | 4-7 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 10 | - |
| T. Duval * | 20 | 2-9 | 0-3 | 5-5 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 2 | - |
| A. O'Connell | 18 | 4-8 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 6 | - |
| M. Bolden | 17 | 4-4 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 8 | - |
| J. White | 2 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
| J. DeLaurier | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
North Carolina Tar Heels
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Berry II * | 37 | 7-20 | 1-8 | 6-7 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 13 | - |
| C. Johnson * | 35 | 7-15 | 4-8 | 0-0 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 19 | - |
| L. Maye * | 33 | 7-15 | 0-3 | 1-2 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 9 | - |
| K. Williams * | 32 | 7-15 | 6-12 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 20 | 13 | - |
| T. Pinson * | 30 | 2-6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 10 | - |
| G. Brooks | 12 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | - |
| A. Platek | 8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| B. Robinson | 6 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
| S. Manley | 4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | - |
| S. Woods | 3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
* = starter