Cal Poly

Season: 2027 preview 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017

Also known as: Cal Poly Mustangs

Program History

Coach: Mike DeGeorge

2025 Team Stats (35 games)

82.1

PPG

82.9

Opp

-0.8

Margin

46.2%

FG%

36.2%

3P%

76.6%

FT%

34.9

RPG

15.3

APG

15.7

75.5

Est. poss./game

81.2

Adj PPG

82.4

Adj Opp PPG

#180

Scoring Rank

Model Outputs

2024-2025

Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model	Output	Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More →	948 (#191)	-
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More →	986 (#192)	-
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +87 elo More →	1042 (#105)	HCA +87 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.7 More →	-1.1 (#176)	HCA +2.7
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.8 More →	-0.5 (#169)	HCA +2.8
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More →	0.438 (#215)	-
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -2.8 More →	0.420 (#188)	AdjNet -2.8
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -2.8 More →	0.420 (#188)	AdjNet -2.8
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 81.2 \| AdjD 82.4 More →	0.473 (#180)	AdjO 81.2 \| AdjD 82.4
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 80.9 \| AdjD 80.0 More →	0.520 (#148)	AdjO 80.9 \| AdjD 80.0
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More →	0.489 (#172)	Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More →	0.499 (#170)	Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 128 \| GP 34 More →	999 (#173)	RD 128 \| GP 34

2025 Schedule & Results

Date	Vs/At	Opponent	Result	Score
2024-11-05	@	San Francisco Dons	L	78 - 86
2024-11-07	@	California Golden Bears	L	73 - 91
2024-11-10	vs	Menlo Oaks	W	99 - 66
2024-11-14	vs	Seattle U Redhawks	W	75 - 71
2024-11-17	@	Eastern Washington Eagles	W	82 - 78
2024-11-20	@	Arizona State Sun Devils	L	89 - 93
2024-11-23	@	Saint Mary's Gaels	L	66 - 80
2024-11-26	vs	Grambling Tigers	W	82 - 79
2024-11-30	@	Stanford Cardinal	W	97 - 90
2024-12-05	@	UC Davis Aggies	L	66 - 77
2024-12-07	vs	Cal State Northridge Matadors	L	91 - 102
2024-12-14	@	San José State Spartans	L	100 - 107
2024-12-17	vs	Denver Pioneers	W	95 - 94
2024-12-21	@	Omaha Mavericks	L	82 - 86
2025-01-02	vs	UC Irvine Anteaters	L	89 - 98
2025-01-04	@	Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors	L	55 - 68
2025-01-09	@	UC San Diego Tritons	L	68 - 95
2025-01-11	vs	UC Santa Barbara Gauchos	L	72 - 75
2025-01-16	vs	UC Davis Aggies	L	54 - 65
2025-01-18	@	UC Irvine Anteaters	L	71 - 101
2025-01-25	vs	Long Beach State Beach	W	78 - 69
2025-01-30	@	Cal State Bakersfield Roadrunners	W	90 - 81
2025-02-01	@	UC Riverside Highlanders	L	62 - 80
2025-02-06	vs	Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors	W	79 - 63
2025-02-13	@	Cal State Fullerton Titans	W	98 - 83
2025-02-15	@	Cal State Northridge Matadors	L	85 - 89
2025-02-20	vs	UC San Diego Tritons	L	67 - 81
2025-02-22	vs	UC Riverside Highlanders	W	112 - 100
2025-02-27	@	UC Santa Barbara Gauchos	L	77 - 96
2025-03-01	vs	Cal State Bakersfield Roadrunners	W	98 - 72
2025-03-06	vs	Cal State Fullerton Titans	W	100 - 61
2025-03-08	@	Long Beach State Beach	W	83 - 69
2025-03-12	@	UC Davis Aggies	W	86 - 76
2025-03-13	@	UC Riverside Highlanders	W	96 - 83
2025-03-14	@	UC Irvine Anteaters	L	78 - 96

2025 Roster

Show Alumni If everyone stayed four years

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player	Pos	GP	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TO	FGA	Numbers	PM	PM GP	PM/G	PM/40	FG%	3P%	FT%	RAPM	TS%	eFG%
Owen Koonce	-	35	30.2	16.9	4.8	1.8	1.1	0.5	2.6	11.8	10.9	-	-	-	-	51.7	40.4	88.1	-	64.2	60.0
Jarred Hyder	-	33	32.9	14.5	3.5	3.2	1.2	0.0	2.5	12.5	7.4	-	-	-	-	39.8	35.5	79.7	-	54.3	51.8
Isaac Jessup	-	31	30.7	11.7	3.5	2.6	1.5	0.1	1.3	8.8	9.3	-	-	-	-	45.6	42.8	76.0	-	64.0	63.1
Peter Bandelj	-	35	25.0	10.4	4.3	2.3	0.5	0.1	1.2	6.6	9.7	8	23	0.3	0.7	45.7	32.0	80.4	0.05	61.3	52.8
Mac Riniker	-	35	24.9	9.4	4.6	2.5	1.5	0.6	2.7	6.8	9.0	-	-	-	-	52.3	34.2	62.2	-	59.6	57.9
Cayden Ward	-	23	16.4	7.4	3.8	0.8	0.5	0.2	1.5	6.2	5.0	43	17	2.5	10.5	40.8	34.8	76.2	0.22	53.3	48.9
Kieran Elliott	-	11	14.8	5.4	3.7	0.5	0.3	0.0	1.4	4.5	4.0	25	3	8.3	17.3	49.0	16.7	58.8	-0.3	52.2	50.0
Guzman Vasilic	-	30	17.5	5.2	2.3	0.7	0.2	0.1	1.1	4.2	3.2	-41	19	-2.2	-5.1	43.7	35.6	73.7	-0.16	57.7	56.0
Aaron Price Jr.	-	31	10.7	4.7	1.9	0.3	0.3	0.1	0.6	3.6	3.0	-16	3	-5.3	-14.3	52.7	33.3	72.0	-0.48	59.3	57.1
Luka Tarlac	-	28	14.5	3.3	2.2	1.5	1.1	0.5	1.6	2.5	4.5	-18	18	-1.0	-3.1	50.0	0.0	64.7	0.12	54.1	50.0
Ethan Menzies	-	26	9.7	2.4	1.5	0.7	0.3	0.1	0.8	2.1	2.1	-	-	-	-	46.3	31.8	62.5	-	53.9	52.8
Eric Brown	-	3	3.0	2.0	0.3	0.0	0.0	0.3	0.0	1.3	1.3	-	-	-	-	75.0	0.0	0	-	75.0	75.0
Logan McLaughlin	-	9	4.9	1.7	0.7	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.6	1.6	0.7	-	-	-	-	28.6	23.1	100.0	-	47.6	39.3
Paul Bizimana	-	13	5.2	1.7	0.6	0.2	0.0	0.1	0.5	1.9	0.2	-	-	-	-	32.0	15.4	100.0	-	41.1	36.0
Isaac Spears	-	8	2.5	1.5	0.2	0.0	0.4	0.0	0.4	1.6	0.1	-	-	-	-	38.5	14.3	50.0	-	43.2	42.3
Hayden Jory	-	15	3.9	0.5	0.5	0.3	0.2	0.0	0.3	0.6	0.6	-	-	-	-	22.2	22.2	100.0	-	40.5	33.3
Jackson Mosley	PG	0	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG

2024-2025 Shot Zones

717 located field-goal attempts in 11 games (ESPN). Each zone is coloured by the player with the largest share of the team's made-shot points there (left) and of its misses there (right).

Points: who the team's points here most likely come from

Misses: who misses most here

Jarred HyderOwen KoonceIsaac JessupCayden WardMac Riniker

Zone	FGM-FGA	FG%	Pts	Top scorer	Runner-up	Most misses	Runner-up
Restricted area	97-145	66.9	194	Mac Riniker 18% (34 pts)	Owen Koonce 16% (32 pts)	Cayden Ward 23% (11 misses)	Mac Riniker 15% (7 misses)
Paint (non-RA)	84-176	47.7	168	Owen Koonce 19% (32 pts)	Jarred Hyder 15% (26 pts)	Owen Koonce 24% (22 misses)	Peter Bandelj 21% (19 misses)
Mid-range left	6-9	66.7	12	Owen Koonce 50% (6 pts)	Jarred Hyder 33% (4 pts)	Jarred Hyder 33% (1 misses)	Mac Riniker 33% (1 misses)
Mid-range center	1-6	16.7	2	Owen Koonce 100% (2 pts)	-	Cayden Ward 40% (2 misses)	Jarred Hyder 20% (1 misses)
Mid-range right	7-12	58.3	14	Owen Koonce 100% (14 pts)	-	Owen Koonce 80% (4 misses)	Jarred Hyder 20% (1 misses)
Left corner 3	16-49	32.7	48	Isaac Jessup 62% (30 pts)	Jarred Hyder 19% (9 pts)	Isaac Jessup 27% (9 misses)	Cayden Ward 24% (8 misses)
Right corner 3	17-34	50.0	51	Cayden Ward 29% (15 pts)	Isaac Jessup 18% (9 pts)	Cayden Ward 29% (5 misses)	Guzman Vasilic 18% (3 misses)
Above-break 3 left	50-123	40.7	150	Isaac Jessup 30% (45 pts)	Jarred Hyder 28% (42 pts)	Jarred Hyder 32% (23 misses)	Isaac Jessup 21% (15 misses)
Above-break 3 center	27-68	39.7	81	Jarred Hyder 33% (27 pts)	Owen Koonce 30% (24 pts)	Jarred Hyder 39% (16 misses)	Isaac Jessup 20% (8 misses)
Above-break 3 right	41-95	43.2	123	Owen Koonce 24% (30 pts)	Isaac Jessup 22% (27 pts)	Jarred Hyder 30% (16 misses)	Isaac Jessup 22% (12 misses)