Model Predictions
| Model | Cal State Fullerton Titans | Cal Poly Mustangs | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 9.3% | 90.7% | +15.2 | ✓ (23.8 off) |
| Bradley-Terry | 13.8% | 86.2% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 4.7% | 95.3% | +16.6 | ✓ (22.4 off) |
| Pythagorean | 9.8% | 90.2% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 2.8% | 97.2% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 2.7% | 97.3% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 18.2% | 81.8% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Cal Poly Mustangs +39 (100-61). Ratings: 2024-25 season-end ratings.
Cal State Fullerton Titans
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kobe Young * | 35 | 3-7 | 1-3 | 2-4 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 13 | -27.1 |
| Kendrick De Luna * | 34 | 6-9 | 0-0 | 2-5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 5 | - |
| LoLo Rudolph * | 32 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 0 | -1 | -25.1 |
| Antwan Robinson * | 25 | 6-16 | 4-12 | 1-2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 17 | 1 | -22.1 |
| Donovan Oday * | 14 | 0-4 | 0-3 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -1 | -17.4 |
| Keith Richard | 31 | 1-8 | 0-4 | 4-5 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 3 | -35.4 |
| Zachary Visentin | 29 | 5-8 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 9 | - |
Cal Poly Mustangs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mac Riniker * | 25 | 3-5 | 2-3 | 0-1 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 15 | +28.5 |
| Isaac Jessup * | 25 | 5-9 | 5-9 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 16 | +32.1 |
| Owen Koonce * | 23 | 8-15 | 3-5 | 2-2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 10 | +24.4 |
| Jarred Hyder * | 21 | 5-10 | 5-10 | 1-2 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 12 | +29.2 |
| Peter Bandelj * | 19 | 3-4 | 1-1 | 3-3 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 16 | +9.3 |
| Luka Tarlac | 16 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | +24.4 |
| Cayden Ward | 15 | 3-7 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 3 | +8.8 |
| Guzman Vasilic | 14 | 2-5 | 1-4 | 1-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 1 | -0.9 |
| Aaron Price Jr. | 13 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | - |
| Hayden Jory | 8 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | +5.0 |
| Logan McLaughlin | 6 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +5.0 |
| Isaac Spears | 6 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | +5.0 |
| Paul Bizimana | 6 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +5.0 |
| Eric Brown | 3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | +5.0 |
* = starter