Model Predictions
| Model | UC San Diego Tritons | Cal Poly Mustangs | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 78.9% | 21.1% | -11.4 | ✓ (2.6 off) |
| Bradley-Terry | 81.0% | 19.0% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 89.1% | 10.9% | -11.5 | ✓ (2.5 off) |
| Pythagorean | 64.7% | 35.3% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 92.9% | 7.1% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 92.9% | 7.1% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 72.9% | 27.1% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Cal Poly Mustangs -14 (67-81). Ratings: 2024-25 season-end ratings.
UC San Diego Tritons
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler McGhie * | 34 | 6-15 | 5-14 | 0-0 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 12 | +0.3 |
| Hayden Gray * | 34 | 6-12 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 14 | +11.6 |
| Aniwaniwa Tait-Jones * | 31 | 5-7 | 0-1 | 9-15 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 27 | +16.9 |
| Chris Howell * | 31 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 12 | -3.5 |
| Nordin Kapic * | 26 | 2-7 | 0-4 | 2-2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 4 | +15.4 |
| Justin Rochelin | 24 | 6-11 | 0-5 | 2-2 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 9 | +0.0 |
| Aidan Burke | 11 | 2-6 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -1 | +2.7 |
| Maximo Milovich | 9 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -11.7 |
Cal Poly Mustangs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peter Bandelj * | 33 | 4-8 | 0-2 | 3-3 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 12 | -8.7 |
| Isaac Jessup * | 32 | 5-10 | 5-8 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 13 | +4.0 |
| Owen Koonce * | 26 | 2-8 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 | -5 | -2.5 |
| Jarred Hyder * | 24 | 2-11 | 1-8 | 1-1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -4 | -5.6 |
| Mac Riniker * | 17 | 3-5 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 3 | -5.1 |
| Cayden Ward | 30 | 7-12 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 13 | +1.3 |
| Guzman Vasilic | 20 | 1-5 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -7.1 |
| Aaron Price Jr. | 16 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | - |
| Ethan Menzies | 2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.6 |
* = starter