Model Predictions
| Model | Cal Poly Mustangs | UC Davis Aggies | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 50.1% | 49.9% | -1.7 | ✗ (12.7 off) |
| Bradley-Terry | 46.6% | 53.4% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 56.2% | 43.8% | -1.4 | ✗ (12.4 off) |
| Pythagorean | 55.9% | 44.1% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 64.9% | 35.1% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 65.2% | 34.8% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 52.1% | 47.9% | - | ✗ |
Actual: UC Davis Aggies +11 (77-66). Ratings: 2024-25 season-end ratings.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Cal Poly Mustangs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen Koonce * | 27 | 6-13 | 4-8 | 3-4 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 8 | - |
| Mac Riniker * | 27 | 3-9 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 3 | - |
| Peter Bandelj * | 24 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 5-6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 8 | - |
| Guzman Vasilic * | 23 | 3-8 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 2 | - |
| Luka Tarlac * | 20 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 7 | - |
| Cayden Ward | 19 | 3-8 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 1 | - |
| Ethan Menzies | 17 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 8 | - |
| Kieran Elliott | 13 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 4 | - |
| Hayden Jory | 11 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - |
| Logan McLaughlin | 9 | 0-3 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -5 | - |
| Aaron Price Jr. | 9 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | - |
UC Davis Aggies
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Sevilla * | 34 | 5-10 | 3-6 | 4-4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 10 | - |
| Ty Johnson * | 33 | 6-21 | 1-4 | 1-3 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 14 | 1 | - |
| Leo DeBruhl * | 27 | 4-9 | 3-5 | 2-3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 11 | - |
| Pablo Tamba * | 27 | 7-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 16 | - |
| Nils Cooper * | 16 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 3-4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 | - |
| Carl Daughtery Jr. | 24 | 5-11 | 2-5 | 2-2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 10 | - |
| Niko Rocak | 18 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | - |
| Sione Lose | 16 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - |
| Jamaal Unuakhalu | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | - |
* = starter