Model Predictions
| Model | Cal Poly Mustangs | UC Davis Aggies | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 61.7% | 38.3% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 38.8% | 61.2% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 56.1% | 43.9% | -1.3 | ✗ (12.3 off) |
| Pythagorean | 55.9% | 44.1% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 54.0% | 46.0% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 64.9% | 35.1% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 65.2% | 34.8% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 51.7% | 48.3% | - | ✗ |
Actual: UC Davis Aggies +11 (77-66). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Cal Poly Mustangs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O. Koonce | 27 | 6-13 | 4-8 | 3-4 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 8 | -6.4 |
| M. Riniker | 27 | 3-9 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 3 | -10.6 |
| P. Bandelj | 24 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 5-6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 8 | -6.9 |
| G. Vasilic | 23 | 3-8 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 2 | -12.0 |
| L. Tarlac | 20 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 7 | +3.8 |
| C. Ward | 19 | 3-8 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 1 | -11.7 |
| E. Menzies | 17 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 8 | +6.6 |
| K. Elliott | 13 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 4 | -5.6 |
| H. Jory | 11 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +6.6 |
| L. McLaughlin | 9 | 0-3 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -5 | -11.8 |
| A. Price Jr. | 9 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | - |
UC Davis Aggies
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Sevilla | 34 | 5-10 | 3-6 | 4-4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 10 | +9.4 |
| Ty Johnson | 33 | 6-21 | 1-4 | 1-3 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 14 | 1 | +11.7 |
| P. Tamba | 27 | 7-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 16 | +16.2 |
| L. DeBruhl | 27 | 4-9 | 3-5 | 2-3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 11 | -12.5 |
| C. Daughtery Jr. | 24 | 5-11 | 2-5 | 2-2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 10 | +16.0 |
| N. Rocak | 18 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | +5.4 |
| N. Cooper | 16 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 3-4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 | +1.8 |
| S. Lose | 16 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -0.4 |
| J. Unuakhalu | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | - |
* = starter