Model Predictions
| Model | UC Santa Barbara Gauchos | Cal Poly Mustangs | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 53.9% | 46.1% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 56.2% | 43.8% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 47.5% | 52.5% | +0.5 | ✗ (3.5 off) |
| Pythagorean | 56.7% | 43.3% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 57.8% | 42.2% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 61.6% | 38.4% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 61.6% | 38.4% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 49.5% | 50.5% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Cal Poly Mustangs -3 (72-75). Predictions use season-end ratings.
UC Santa Barbara Gauchos
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Fontenet II | 33 | 2-6 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | +1.1 |
| Stephan Swenson | 32 | 8-12 | 6-9 | 0-0 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 22 | 20 | +10.6 |
| Cole Anderson | 29 | 6-11 | 6-9 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 12 | +7.5 |
| Kenny Pohto | 28 | 6-11 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 13 | 5 | +6.4 |
| Max Murrell | 27 | 4-8 | 2-5 | 2-2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 9 | -4.7 |
| Colin Smith | 21 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -11.8 |
| Ben Shtolzberg | 16 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 3-3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | +7.1 |
| Deuce Turner | 10 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | -8.4 |
| Ariel Bland | 4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | - |
Cal Poly Mustangs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mac Riniker | 31 | 2-6 | 1-3 | 2-3 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 10 | -2.4 |
| Owen Koonce | 31 | 8-13 | 2-7 | 5-6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 23 | 14 | -0.9 |
| Isaac Jessup | 27 | 2-6 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 7 | -1.2 |
| Jarred Hyder | 27 | 1-7 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -1 | +3.6 |
| Peter Bandelj | 23 | 5-7 | 2-3 | 6-6 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 22 | -2.4 |
| Guzman Vasilic | 23 | 1-5 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | +9.4 |
| Luka Tarlac | 12 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -7.3 |
| Cayden Ward | 9 | 2-8 | 0-3 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -1 | -7.3 |
| Ethan Menzies | 9 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | +3.1 |
| Aaron Price Jr. | 8 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | - |
* = starter