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Atlanta Dream

Also known as: Atlanta Dream
Program History

2013 Team Stats (42 games)

75.3
PPG
74.8
Opp
+0.5
Margin
41.4%
FG%
26.8%
3P%
74.0%
FT%
35.5
RPG
16.1
APG
14.1
TO
81.1
Est. poss./game
74.2
Adj PPG
73.6
Adj Opp PPG
#4
Scoring Rank

Model Outputs

2013
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More โ†’ 1041 (#5) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More โ†’ 997 (#5) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +48 elo More โ†’ 969 (#8) HCA +48 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +3.2 More โ†’ +0.6 (#4) HCA +3.2
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.8 More โ†’ -1.3 (#9) HCA +2.8
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More โ†’ 0.520 (#5) -
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +1.1 More โ†’ 0.533 (#4) AdjNet +1.1
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +1.1 More โ†’ 0.533 (#4) AdjNet +1.1
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 74.2 | AdjD 73.6 More โ†’ 0.513 (#4) AdjO 74.2 | AdjD 73.6
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 72.9 | AdjD 74.2 More โ†’ 0.472 (#9) AdjO 72.9 | AdjD 74.2
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More โ†’ 0.508 (#5) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More โ†’ 0.500 (#6) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 76 | GP 42 More โ†’ 993 (#6) RD 76 | GP 42

2013 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2013-05-25 vs Tulsa Shock W 98 - 81
2013-05-31 @ Indiana Fever W 86 - 77
2013-06-02 @ Washington Mystics W 73 - 63
2013-06-07 vs New York Liberty W 75 - 56
2013-06-09 @ New York Liberty L 67 - 76
2013-06-14 vs Seattle Storm W 68 - 59
2013-06-16 vs Chicago Sky W 88 - 74
2013-06-23 @ Connecticut Sun W 78 - 77
2013-06-25 vs Indiana Fever W 76 - 60
2013-06-28 vs Washington Mystics W 86 - 75
2013-06-30 vs San Antonio Silver Stars W 93 - 67
2013-07-09 @ Minnesota Lynx L 72 - 94
2013-07-14 @ Seattle Storm L 65 - 73
2013-07-17 @ Los Angeles Sparks L 73 - 77
2013-07-21 @ Tulsa Shock L 63 - 90
2013-07-24 vs Connecticut Sun W 74 - 65
2013-08-03 @ Phoenix Mercury L 76 - 82
2013-08-10 @ Indiana Fever L 66 - 80
2013-08-11 vs New York Liberty L 82 - 88
2013-08-14 @ Connecticut Sun L 86 - 88
2013-08-16 vs Connecticut Sun W 88 - 57
2013-08-18 vs Washington Mystics W 76 - 58
2013-08-20 vs Minnesota Lynx W 88 - 75
2013-08-23 @ Washington Mystics L 64 - 74
2013-08-24 vs Chicago Sky L 56 - 67
2013-08-28 vs Washington Mystics L 80 - 85
2013-08-31 @ Chicago Sky L 68 - 85
2013-09-02 vs Los Angeles Sparks W 92 - 82
2013-09-04 vs Indiana Fever W 89 - 80
2013-09-06 @ New York Liberty W 70 - 57
2013-09-08 vs Phoenix Mercury L 71 - 79
2013-09-11 @ Connecticut Sun L 77 - 78
2013-09-13 @ Chicago Sky L 82 - 87
2013-09-15 @ San Antonio Silver Stars L 68 - 97
2013-09-19 vs Washington Mystics L 56 - 71
2013-09-21 @ Washington Mystics W 63 - 45
2013-09-23 vs Washington Mystics W 80 - 72
2013-09-26 vs Indiana Fever W 84 - 79
2013-09-29 @ Indiana Fever W 67 - 53
2013-10-06 @ Minnesota Lynx L 59 - 84
2013-10-08 @ Minnesota Lynx L 63 - 88
2013-10-10 vs Minnesota Lynx L 77 - 86

2013 Roster

Minutes by Position

Each player's share of the team's minutes per game (season minutes over the roster's), placed by position, so every column is one game's minutes. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM GP PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Angel McCoughtry Angel McCoughtry F 41 31.3 20.8 5.0 4.3 2.6 0.8 4.0 18.3 11.2 - - - - 39.3 21.4 82.5 - 48.8 41.3
D. Nowitzki D. Nowitzki - 6 30.2 14.3 8.5 2.5 2.3 1.3 2.2 11.7 15.2 - - - - 52.9 40.0 66.7 - 56.1 54.3
E. de Souza E. de Souza F 42 30.0 12.5 9.9 1.3 1.3 1.6 1.7 10.0 14.8 - - - - 53.7 0 66.4 - 55.9 53.7
Tiffany Hayes Tiffany Hayes G 33 23.6 11.2 3.8 1.8 1.0 0.1 1.8 8.7 7.6 - - - - 40.1 36.5 74.5 - 53.0 46.2
Jasmine Thomas Jasmine Thomas G 44 27.1 8.0 2.9 2.8 0.8 0.3 2.2 9.4 3.3 - - - - 35.5 19.3 69.0 - 39.9 37.6
A. Bentley A. Bentley G 44 21.1 7.8 1.4 2.6 1.0 0.1 1.1 8.2 3.7 - - - - 38.2 29.9 72.9 - 44.9 42.7
C. Kraayeveld C. Kraayeveld F 2 16.5 7.5 5.5 1.0 2.0 1.0 1.5 6.0 9.5 - - - - 33.3 14.3 60.0 - 45.7 37.5
A. Herrington A. Herrington G 38 28.7 7.3 3.7 2.4 2.3 0.2 1.6 5.8 8.4 - - - - 49.1 0 61.9 - 52.5 49.1
B. Alverson B. Alverson G 2 11.0 5.5 3.0 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.0 4.5 4.5 - - - - 55.6 0.0 100.0 - 58.3 55.6
S. Carter S. Carter G 2 19.5 5.0 2.5 2.0 1.0 0.0 1.5 6.5 2.5 - - - - 38.5 0.0 0 - 38.5 38.5
A. Henry-Morello A. Henry-Morello F 44 15.0 4.7 4.6 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.8 3.9 5.9 - - - - 48.8 0 80.4 - 53.3 48.8
S. Nash S. Nash - 40 21.6 3.8 4.0 0.8 0.8 0.3 1.2 3.7 4.8 - - - - 40.3 26.9 65.4 - 47.1 45.0
C. Clements C. Clements G 32 9.4 3.0 1.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.3 3.9 0.5 - - - - 26.4 25.0 81.0 - 35.4 31.2
R. Riley R. Riley C 20 7.4 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 0.9 - - - - 39.1 50.0 62.5 - 49.0 45.7
K. Swanier K. Swanier G 2 11.5 1.0 1.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 1.5 1.0 1.5 - - - - 0.0 0 100.0 - 34.7 0.0
A. Armstrong A. Armstrong G 11 5.0 0.9 1.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.9 1.3 - - - - 40.0 40.0 0 - 50.0 50.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

Not enough players with both Numbers/Game and RAPM to plot.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG

2013 Shot Zones

3045 located field-goal attempts in 44 games (ESPN). Each zone is coloured by the player with the largest share of the team's made-shot points there (left) and of its misses there (right).

Souza25% McCoughtry20% Thomas25% McCoughtry24% McCoughtry30% Thomas40% Hayes67% Bentley24% Bentley28% McCoughtry26%
Points: who the team's points here most likely come from
McCoughtry22% McCoughtry24% McCoughtry27% McCoughtry29% McCoughtry29% Clements33% Thomas80% McCoughtry24% McCoughtry37% McCoughtry26%
Misses: who misses most here

Angel McCoughtryE. de SouzaA. BentleyJasmine ThomasTiffany HayesC. Clements

Zone FGM-FGA FG% Pts Top scorer Runner-up Most misses Runner-up
Restricted area 632-1038 60.9 1264 E. de Souza 25% (312 pts) Angel McCoughtry 24% (302 pts) Angel McCoughtry 22% (90 misses) E. de Souza 17% (70 misses)
Paint (non-RA) 220-562 39.1 440 Angel McCoughtry 20% (88 pts) E. de Souza 16% (72 pts) Angel McCoughtry 24% (83 misses) E. de Souza 21% (71 misses)
Mid-range left 108-390 27.7 216 Jasmine Thomas 25% (54 pts) Angel McCoughtry 23% (50 pts) Angel McCoughtry 27% (75 misses) Jasmine Thomas 21% (58 misses)
Mid-range center 59-165 35.8 118 Angel McCoughtry 24% (28 pts) A. Bentley 22% (26 pts) Angel McCoughtry 29% (31 misses) A. Bentley 14% (15 misses)
Mid-range right 110-330 33.3 220 Angel McCoughtry 30% (66 pts) E. de Souza 15% (32 pts) Angel McCoughtry 29% (63 misses) Jasmine Thomas 16% (35 misses)
Left corner 3 5-17 29.4 15 Jasmine Thomas 40% (6 pts) Tiffany Hayes 40% (6 pts) C. Clements 33% (4 misses) Jasmine Thomas 33% (4 misses)
Right corner 3 3-8 37.5 9 Tiffany Hayes 67% (6 pts) Jasmine Thomas 33% (3 pts) Jasmine Thomas 80% (4 misses) Tiffany Hayes 20% (1 misses)
Above-break 3 left 54-209 25.8 162 A. Bentley 24% (39 pts) Tiffany Hayes 24% (39 pts) Angel McCoughtry 24% (37 misses) Jasmine Thomas 17% (27 misses)
Above-break 3 center 32-143 22.4 96 A. Bentley 28% (27 pts) S. Nash 22% (21 pts) Angel McCoughtry 37% (41 misses) A. Bentley 22% (24 misses)
Above-break 3 right 53-183 29.0 159 Angel McCoughtry 26% (42 pts) Tiffany Hayes 23% (36 pts) Angel McCoughtry 26% (34 misses) A. Bentley 18% (24 misses)