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Toledo Rockets

Season: 2027 preview 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017
Also known as: Toledo Rockets
Program History
Coach: Tod Kowalczyk

Model Outputs

2011-2012
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 980 (#178) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 967 (#194) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +101 elo More → 1015 (#151) HCA +101 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +3.2 More → -2.3 (#206) HCA +3.2
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.2 More → -1.7 (#196) HCA +3.2
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.521 (#154) -
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -3.4 More → 0.402 (#196) AdjNet -3.4
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -3.5 More → 0.400 (#196) AdjNet -3.5
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 67.1 | AdjD 69.3 More → 0.450 (#205) AdjO 67.1 | AdjD 69.3
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 65.8 | AdjD 66.8 More → 0.478 (#186) AdjO 65.8 | AdjD 66.8
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.478 (#184) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.484 (#178) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 106 | GP 32 More → 1014 (#161) RD 106 | GP 32

2012 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2011-11-18 @ Texas State Bobcats L 91 - 94
2011-11-19 @ South Carolina Upstate Spartans W 75 - 70
2011-11-20 @ UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros W 64 - 54
2011-11-21 vs Victory University Eagles W 90 - 47
2011-11-26 vs UIC Flames W 82 - 67
2011-11-30 vs UNC Wilmington Seahawks W 75 - 73
2011-12-03 @ Chicago State Cougars W 73 - 61
2011-12-07 vs Temple Owls L 58 - 77
2011-12-10 vs Loyola Chicago Ramblers L 55 - 57
2011-12-17 vs Youngstown State Penguins W 86 - 77
2011-12-20 vs Norfolk State Spartans L 70 - 72
2011-12-22 @ Florida Gulf Coast Eagles L 80 - 83
2011-12-28 vs Cleveland State Vikings L 64 - 72
2012-01-03 vs IU-Northwest RedHawks W 107 - 43
2012-01-07 @ Central Michigan Chippewas L 69 - 85
2012-01-10 vs Ball State Cardinals L 68 - 70
2012-01-14 @ Western Michigan Broncos L 52 - 74
2012-01-18 vs Northern Illinois Huskies W 71 - 41
2012-01-25 @ Miami (OH) Redhawks W 63 - 61
2012-01-28 vs Kent State Golden Flashes L 61 - 77
2012-02-01 @ Akron Zips L 72 - 86
2012-02-04 vs Buffalo Bulls L 65 - 72
2012-02-08 vs Ohio Bobcats W 77 - 73
2012-02-15 @ Ball State Cardinals W 63 - 55
2012-02-18 @ Sam Houston Bearkats W 59 - 58
2012-02-22 vs Central Michigan Chippewas W 72 - 67
2012-02-25 vs Western Michigan Broncos W 83 - 74
2012-02-29 @ Northern Illinois Huskies L 61 - 65
2012-03-03 vs Eastern Michigan Eagles W 76 - 51
2012-03-05 vs Miami (OH) Redhawks W 60 - 53
2012-03-07 vs Central Michigan Chippewas W 75 - 72
2012-03-08 @ Ohio Bobcats L 57 - 65
2012-03-13 vs McNeese Cowboys W 76 - 63
2012-03-17 vs Robert Morris Colonials L 51 - 69

2012 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM GP PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
R. Pearson R. Pearson G 34 32.1 16.6 8.4 1.9 1.5 0.3 2.5 3.3 22.9 23 25 0.9 1.2 45.5 12.5 66.7 0.42 220.6 46.0
C. Dennis C. Dennis G-F 26 26.2 12.1 3.4 1.5 1.3 0.1 1.5 3.0 14.0 38 20 1.9 3.1 43.6 30.0 77.3 0.55 179.6 51.3
J. Brown J. Brown G 34 31.6 11.9 2.5 5.0 1.1 0.1 3.1 2.3 15.2 -26 25 -1.0 -1.5 45.5 29.2 65.4 -3.13 227.8 50.0
D. Buckley D. Buckley G 34 30.4 9.9 2.8 2.9 1.5 0.2 2.0 1.5 13.8 63 25 2.5 3.5 40.0 42.3 93.8 3.18 293.7 51.0
M. Smith M. Smith F 33 23.5 8.8 4.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.3 11.8 31 25 1.2 2.2 59.1 46.2 66.7 1.33 285.6 65.9
R. Holliday R. Holliday F 34 26.1 7.5 5.9 1.1 0.3 0.1 1.8 1.1 12.0 -24 25 -1.0 -1.8 53.8 50.0 64.0 -3.61 254.0 65.4
R. Majerle R. Majerle G 12 22.5 5.2 1.8 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.7 0.0 8.0 -2 8 -0.2 -0.6 0 0 0 0.51 0 0
D. Dear D. Dear F 32 13.7 3.5 2.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.2 5.4 -12 22 -0.5 -1.7 66.7 0 66.7 -2.2 492.0 66.7
R. Wonnell R. Wonnell C 25 12.3 1.4 2.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.6 3.0 2 16 0.1 0.5 57.1 0 66.7 -0.41 105.2 57.1
Z. Riddle Z. Riddle - 9 3.2 1.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.4 - - - - 20.0 0 100.0 - 93.5 20.0
A. Mathew A. Mathew G 29 6.5 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 1.7 11 20 0.6 4.8 33.3 25.0 100.0 -0.27 123.5 41.7
J. Ewing J. Ewing - 9 3.2 0.4 1.1 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.4 0.3 1.2 - - - - 33.3 0 0 - 66.7 33.3

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG