Model Predictions
| Model | Toledo Rockets | Chicago State Cougars | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 89.5% | 10.5% | -15.6 | ✓ (3.6 off) |
| Bradley-Terry | 83.4% | 16.6% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 90.5% | 9.5% | -12.4 | ✓ (0.4 off) |
| Pythagorean | 87.8% | 12.2% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 93.8% | 6.2% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 93.9% | 6.1% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 74.7% | 25.3% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Chicago State Cougars -12 (61-73). Ratings: 2011-12 season-end ratings.
Toledo Rockets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Majerle | 32 | 3-9 | 2-6 | 6-6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 14 | 9 | - |
| Dominique Buckley | 31 | 5-10 | 5-8 | 6-6 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 21 | 18 | - |
| Reese Holliday | 28 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 4-4 | 9 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 13 | - |
| Matt Smith | 27 | 6-8 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 16 | - |
| Julius Brown | 27 | 3-8 | 1-4 | 1-4 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 8 | -2 | - |
| Rian Pearson | 24 | 2-10 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 4 | - |
| DeLino Dear | 17 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 1-5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 6 | - |
| Aj Mathew | 11 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Richard Wonnell | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| James Ewing | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Zack Riddle | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
Chicago State Cougars
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Samuels | 35 | 5-15 | 1-2 | 4-6 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 10 | - |
| Ardarius Simmons | 33 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | - |
| Lee Fisher | 30 | 4-13 | 1-3 | 5-7 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 12 | - |
| Jeremy Robinson | 24 | 7-12 | 1-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 17 | 7 | - |
| Clarke Rosenberg | 23 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -1 | - |
| D'Jari Nelson | 17 | 2-4 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | - |
| Aaron Williams | 15 | 0-4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -4 | - |
| Quincy Ukaigwe | 13 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - |
| Jacobby Anderson | 10 | 2-4 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 5 | - |
* = starter