Model Predictions
| Model | Toledo Rockets | Western Michigan Broncos | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 36.7% | 63.3% | +2.8 | ✓ (19.2 off) |
| Bradley-Terry | 48.2% | 51.8% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 29.8% | 70.2% | +4.7 | ✓ (17.3 off) |
| Pythagorean | 52.8% | 47.2% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 40.6% | 59.4% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 40.8% | 59.2% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 40.3% | 59.7% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Western Michigan Broncos +22 (74-52). Ratings: 2011-12 season-end ratings.
Toledo Rockets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rian Pearson * | 34 | 6-15 | 0-2 | 3-7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 3 | - |
| Julius Brown * | 31 | 7-13 | 1-4 | 2-3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 8 | - |
| Reese Holliday * | 30 | 3-6 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 8 | - |
| Dominique Buckley * | 25 | 2-7 | 0-4 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -2 | - |
| Matt Smith * | 15 | 1-6 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | - |
| Richard Wonnell | 26 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - |
| Curtis Dennis | 24 | 1-6 | 0-3 | 1-2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | - |
| Aj Mathew | 11 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - |
| DeLino Dear | 4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | - |
Western Michigan Broncos
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demetrius Ward * | 31 | 1-8 | 1-7 | 0-0 | 6 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 6 | - |
| Matt Stainbrook * | 28 | 6-11 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 11 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 20 | - |
| Mike Douglas * | 28 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 13 | - |
| Flenard Whitfield * | 22 | 8-11 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 19 | 16 | - |
| Nate Hutcheson * | 17 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 1 | - |
| Austin Richie | 24 | 4-10 | 1-5 | 1-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 1 | - |
| Hayden Hoerdemann | 18 | 3-4 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 9 | - |
| Dan Loney | 12 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | - |
| Muhammed Conteh | 9 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | - |
| Caleb Dean | 4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | - |
| Shayne Whittington | 4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Tim Brennan | 3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
* = starter