Model Predictions
| Model | Ball State Cardinals | Toledo Rockets | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 22.5% | 77.5% | +7.5 | ✗ (9.5 off) |
| Bradley-Terry | 36.9% | 63.1% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 40.6% | 59.4% | +2.1 | ✗ (4.1 off) |
| Pythagorean | 50.3% | 49.7% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 50.9% | 49.1% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 51.0% | 49.0% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 45.7% | 54.3% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Toledo Rockets -2 (68-70). Ratings: 2011-12 season-end ratings.
Ball State Cardinals
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randy Davis * | 32 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 3-4 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 16 | - |
| Jarrod Jones * | 31 | 7-11 | 1-2 | 7-7 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 22 | 16 | - |
| Tyrae Robinson * | 26 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 5 | - |
| Tyler Koch * | 25 | 1-4 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | - |
| Chris Bond * | 21 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 6 | - |
| Jauwan Scaife | 21 | 2-5 | 2-5 | 1-2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 6 | - |
| Jesse Berry | 21 | 6-11 | 5-7 | 1-2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 11 | - |
| Matt Kamieniecki | 14 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | - |
| Aaron Adeoye | 9 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | -1 | - |
Toledo Rockets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rian Pearson * | 38 | 7-14 | 0-1 | 5-6 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 22 | - |
| Julius Brown * | 35 | 2-8 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 2 | - |
| Dominique Buckley * | 33 | 5-10 | 4-6 | 2-2 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 10 | - |
| Matt Smith * | 26 | 3-4 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 9 | - |
| Reese Holliday * | 21 | 2-5 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | - |
| Curtis Dennis | 25 | 2-10 | 1-7 | 2-3 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 3 | - |
| Richard Wonnell | 14 | 4-4 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 8 | - |
| Aj Mathew | 6 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| DeLino Dear | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter