🐻⬇️🏀

North Carolina Tar Heels

Also known as: North Carolina Tar Heels
Program History

2024 Team Stats (27 games)

68.4
PPG
62.4
Opp
+6.0
Margin
41.5%
FG%
30.0%
3P%
65.8%
FT%
39.0
RPG
12.8
APG
12.4
TO
82.3
Pace

Model Outputs

2023-2024
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 1116 (#90) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1274 (#40) -
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.6 More → +45.1 (#26) HCA +2.6
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.932 (#19) -
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +20.3 More → 0.913 (#24) AdjNet +20.3
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +21.2 More → 0.922 (#24) AdjNet +21.2

2024 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2023-11-08 vs Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs W 102 - 49
2023-11-12 vs Davidson Wildcats W 74 - 70
2023-11-15 vs Hampton Lady Pirates W 62 - 32
2023-11-18 vs Elon Phoenix W 68 - 39
2023-11-24 vs Vermont Catamounts W 54 - 51
2023-11-25 @ Kansas State Wildcats L 56 - 63
2023-11-26 vs Florida Gulf Coast Eagles L 64 - 65
2023-11-30 vs South Carolina Gamecocks L 58 - 65
2023-12-06 vs UNC Greensboro Spartans W 81 - 66
2023-12-10 @ UConn Huskies L 64 - 76
2023-12-15 vs Western Carolina Catamounts W 96 - 36
2023-12-19 @ Oklahoma Sooners W 61 - 52
2023-12-31 vs Clemson Tigers W 82 - 76
2024-01-04 vs Syracuse Orange W 75 - 51
2024-01-07 @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish W 61 - 57
2024-01-11 @ Florida State Seminoles L 62 - 70
2024-01-14 vs Virginia Cavaliers W 81 - 68
2024-01-18 @ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets W 73 - 68
2024-01-21 vs Louisville Cardinals W 79 - 68
2024-01-25 vs Miami Hurricanes W 66 - 61
2024-01-28 @ Virginia Cavaliers L 66 - 81
2024-02-01 @ NC State Wolfpack L 59 - 63
2024-02-04 vs Virginia Tech Hokies L 61 - 70
2024-02-22 vs NC State Wolfpack W 80 - 70
2024-02-25 @ Virginia Tech Hokies L 62 - 74
2024-03-22 vs Michigan State Spartans W 59 - 56
2024-03-24 @ South Carolina Gamecocks L 41 - 88

2024 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
D. Kelly D. Kelly G 27 35.3 16.5 3.6 3.2 1.4 0.3 2.5 15.0 7.5 -49 -4.9 -3.6 35.3 26.5 68.9 0.21 45.4 38.5
A. Ustby A. Ustby G 27 33.4 12.3 10.0 3.4 1.7 1.4 2.8 11.3 14.7 -30 -3.0 -2.8 47.4 0.0 57.5 0.31 49.1 47.4
L. Donarski L. Donarski G 27 35.0 10.4 2.8 1.3 0.9 0.1 1.1 10.1 4.3 -43 -4.8 -3.8 36.3 35.5 77.8 0.07 49.1 47.4
M. Gakdeng M. Gakdeng F 27 23.3 9.4 6.0 0.5 0.4 1.5 1.4 6.4 10.0 -27 -3.4 -4.5 63.2 0 63.5 0.16 64.3 63.2
I. Nivar I. Nivar G 27 21.2 6.7 4.3 1.4 1.4 0.4 1.6 6.7 6.0 -16 -1.8 -2.1 39.8 25.9 54.5 0.06 45.4 43.6
P. Paris P. Paris G 15 20.3 5.9 1.5 1.5 0.5 0.0 1.0 5.7 2.7 - - - 36.5 30.2 83.3 0.14 48.7 45.9
K. McPherson K. McPherson G 7 18.0 4.7 1.9 1.9 1.0 0.0 1.1 4.4 3.9 - - - 29.0 21.4 57.1 0.05 41.0 33.9
R. Kelly R. Kelly G 20 17.3 4.2 1.7 1.2 0.6 0.0 1.0 4.3 2.5 - - - 37.2 27.0 83.3 - 46.0 43.0
A. Poole A. Poole F 24 11.8 2.6 3.0 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.4 2.1 4.4 -20 -2.2 -5.4 45.1 0 63.0 -0.04 50.1 45.1
T. Key T. Key F 17 9.6 2.5 3.0 0.4 0.1 0.7 0.7 2.4 3.5 32 3.6 5.6 41.5 0.0 72.7 0.45 45.8 41.5
A. Zelaya A. Zelaya F 15 9.9 2.4 1.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 2.3 1.4 -28 -3.1 -8.9 32.4 37.0 66.7 -0.24 49.1 47.1
R. Grays R. Grays F 4 4.8 1.8 1.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.8 2.8 - - - 66.7 0 75.0 - 73.5 66.7
S. Barker S. Barker G 7 4.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.0 -2 -0.4 -2.9 25.0 0.0 0 0.01 25.0 25.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG