Model Predictions
| Model | North Carolina Tar Heels | NC State Wolfpack | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 43.2% | 56.8% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 42.0% | 58.0% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 31.1% | 68.9% | +4.4 | ✓ (0.4 off) |
| Pythagorean | 48.8% | 51.2% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 16.7% | 83.3% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 17.5% | 82.5% | - | ✓ |
Actual: NC State Wolfpack +4 (63-59). Predictions use season-end ratings.
North Carolina Tar Heels
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Kelly | 38 | 8-20 | 2-6 | 3-3 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 5 | - |
| A. Ustby | 37 | 5-10 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 20 | - |
| L. Donarski | 36 | 3-8 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 3 | - |
| M. Gakdeng | 34 | 5-9 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 12 | - |
| R. Kelly | 31 | 2-6 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | - |
| I. Nivar | 12 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | - |
| A. Zelaya | 10 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | - |
| T. Key | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| A. Poole | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
NC State Wolfpack
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Rivers | 40 | 5-14 | 0-1 | 4-6 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 14 | - |
| M. Collins | 37 | 6-11 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 10 | - |
| M. Hayes | 37 | 3-9 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 1 | - |
| R. Baldwin | 31 | 1-8 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | - |
| A. James | 21 | 4-10 | 0-5 | 2-2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 2 | - |
| Z. Brooks | 19 | 4-7 | 0-2 | 2-4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 8 | - |
| M. Cox | 12 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 3-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 7 | - |
| L. Steele | 3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
* = starter