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2024-01-14

Model Predictions

Model Virginia Cavaliers North Carolina Tar Heels Spread Result
Elo 52.3% 47.7% -
Bradley-Terry 32.7% 67.3% -
Margin 8.6% 91.4% +13.0 (0.0 off)
Pythagorean 41.4% 58.6% -
Adjusted Efficiency 10.8% 89.2% -
Log Adjusted 9.9% 90.1% -

Actual: North Carolina Tar Heels +13 (81-68). Predictions use season-end ratings.

Virginia Cavaliers

Player MIN FG 3PT FT REB AST STL BLK TO PTS Numbers RAPM GS
L. Clarkson 31 4-7 0-0 2-4 7 0 1 0 0 10 11 -
K. Johnson 28 3-9 2-5 5-6 5 5 1 0 2 13 13 -
C. Taylor 26 5-15 2-3 4-4 7 0 1 0 2 16 7 -
P. Clark 25 1-8 0-0 2-2 2 1 1 0 1 4 -1 -
Y. Vaughn 24 1-6 1-3 0-0 1 3 0 0 3 3 -2 -
O. McGhee 22 4-7 2-4 2-3 4 1 0 0 2 12 8 -
A. Smith 16 2-7 0-0 0-0 5 5 0 0 1 4 6 -
S. Brunelle 14 1-5 1-4 0-0 1 0 1 0 1 3 -1 -
K. Lawson 6 0-0 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -
E. Noyan 5 0-0 0-0 0-0 2 1 0 0 0 0 3 -
T. Lauterbach 3 1-1 0-0 1-2 0 0 0 0 0 3 2 -

North Carolina Tar Heels

Player MIN FG 3PT FT REB AST STL BLK TO PTS Numbers RAPM GS
A. Ustby 37 8-15 0-0 1-2 12 5 1 3 3 17 20 -
D. Kelly 36 8-17 4-7 7-8 5 5 2 0 1 27 21 -
L. Donarski 32 1-5 1-3 0-0 4 3 0 0 0 3 5 -
I. Nivar 22 2-5 2-2 2-6 4 3 1 1 0 8 12 -
A. Poole 19 2-5 0-0 3-4 6 0 1 1 2 7 8 -
M. Gakdeng 18 3-4 0-0 1-2 6 0 0 0 1 7 8 -
R. Kelly 18 2-4 0-2 2-2 0 3 1 0 1 6 5 -
P. Paris 10 1-4 0-2 2-2 2 1 0 0 0 4 3 -
T. Key 5 1-2 0-0 0-0 1 0 0 1 1 2 1 -
A. Zelaya 3 0-1 0-1 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -

* = starter