Model Predictions
| Model | Virginia Cavaliers | North Carolina Tar Heels | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 52.3% | 47.7% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 32.7% | 67.3% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 8.6% | 91.4% | +13.0 | ✓ (0.0 off) |
| Pythagorean | 41.4% | 58.6% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 10.8% | 89.2% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 9.9% | 90.1% | - | ✓ |
Actual: North Carolina Tar Heels +13 (81-68). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Virginia Cavaliers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Clarkson | 31 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 11 | - |
| K. Johnson | 28 | 3-9 | 2-5 | 5-6 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 13 | - |
| C. Taylor | 26 | 5-15 | 2-3 | 4-4 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 7 | - |
| P. Clark | 25 | 1-8 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -1 | - |
| Y. Vaughn | 24 | 1-6 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -2 | - |
| O. McGhee | 22 | 4-7 | 2-4 | 2-3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 8 | - |
| A. Smith | 16 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 | - |
| S. Brunelle | 14 | 1-5 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -1 | - |
| K. Lawson | 6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| E. Noyan | 5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - |
| T. Lauterbach | 3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | - |
North Carolina Tar Heels
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Ustby | 37 | 8-15 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 12 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 17 | 20 | - |
| D. Kelly | 36 | 8-17 | 4-7 | 7-8 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 27 | 21 | - |
| L. Donarski | 32 | 1-5 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | - |
| I. Nivar | 22 | 2-5 | 2-2 | 2-6 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 12 | - |
| A. Poole | 19 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 8 | - |
| M. Gakdeng | 18 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 8 | - |
| R. Kelly | 18 | 2-4 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 5 | - |
| P. Paris | 10 | 1-4 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | - |
| T. Key | 5 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | - |
| A. Zelaya | 3 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
* = starter