Model Predictions
| Model | North Carolina Tar Heels | Virginia Cavaliers | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 31.4% | 68.6% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 53.7% | 46.3% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 80.4% | 19.6% | -7.8 | ✗ (22.8 off) |
| Pythagorean | 52.6% | 47.4% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 83.2% | 16.8% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 84.1% | 15.9% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Virginia Cavaliers +15 (81-66). Predictions use season-end ratings.
North Carolina Tar Heels
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Kelly | 40 | 8-13 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 11 | - |
| D. Kelly | 40 | 2-13 | 0-4 | 6-10 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 5 | - |
| L. Donarski | 38 | 3-7 | 1-5 | 2-3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 5 | - |
| A. Ustby | 37 | 6-12 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 13 | 13 | - |
| M. Gakdeng | 13 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 2 | - |
| A. Poole | 12 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | - |
| I. Nivar | 12 | 2-4 | 1-1 | 3-5 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 8 | - |
| T. Key | 8 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1 | - |
Virginia Cavaliers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Clark | 32 | 4-5 | 1-1 | 5-5 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 14 | 13 | - |
| S. Brunelle | 30 | 5-9 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 15 | - |
| K. Johnson | 29 | 8-12 | 4-5 | 5-6 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 25 | 24 | - |
| E. Noyan | 23 | 2-5 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 4 | - |
| L. Clarkson | 22 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 4-5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 4 | - |
| A. Smith | 21 | 0-6 | 0-1 | 7-10 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 11 | - |
| J. Brown | 18 | 1-4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | - |
| O. McGhee | 11 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - |
| C. Pauley | 9 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | - |
| T. Lauterbach | 5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | - |
| K. Lawson | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter