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Murray State

Season: 2027 preview 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017
Also known as: Murray State Racers, Murray State
Program History
Coach: Matt McMahon

2018 Team Stats (1 games)

68.0
PPG
85.0
Opp
-17.0
Margin
41.2%
FG%
30.4%
3P%
82.6%
FT%
36.0
RPG
12.0
APG
16.0
TO
-
Est. poss./game
74.7
Adj PPG
67.1
Adj Opp PPG
#77
Scoring Rank

Model Outputs

2017-2018
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 1183 (#75) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1224 (#33) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +95 elo More → 1155 (#9) HCA +95 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.9 More → +7.7 (#79) HCA +2.9
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.8 More → +8.1 (#72) HCA +2.8
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.841 (#11) -
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +10.8 More → 0.776 (#79) AdjNet +10.8
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +10.8 More → 0.776 (#80) AdjNet +10.8
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 74.7 | AdjD 67.1 More → 0.667 (#77) AdjO 74.7 | AdjD 67.1
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 73.6 | AdjD 65.9 More → 0.669 (#35) AdjO 73.6 | AdjD 65.9
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.741 (#60) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.741 (#50) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 121 | GP 30 More → 1190 (#54) RD 121 | GP 30

2018 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2017-11-10 vs Brescia Bearcats W 118 - 61
2017-11-13 vs Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders L 67 - 72
2017-11-18 @ Wright State Raiders W 80 - 61
2017-11-25 vs Southern Illinois Salukis W 81 - 73
2017-11-28 vs Harris Stowe State Hornets W 85 - 56
2017-12-02 vs Florida A&M Rattlers W 80 - 59
2017-12-09 @ Illinois State Redbirds W 78 - 72
2017-12-12 @ Saint Louis Billikens L 55 - 69
2017-12-16 vs Marist Red Foxes W 100 - 63
2017-12-19 vs Auburn Tigers L 77 - 81
2017-12-22 @ Detroit Mercy Titans W 81 - 72
2017-12-28 vs Eastern Illinois Panthers W 80 - 52
2017-12-30 vs SIU Edwardsville Cougars W 87 - 63
2018-01-04 vs Southeast Missouri State Redhawks W 89 - 73
2018-01-06 vs UT Martin Skyhawks W 82 - 68
2018-01-11 @ Jacksonville State Gamecocks L 71 - 76
2018-01-13 @ Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles W 71 - 45
2018-01-18 @ Belmont Bruins L 72 - 79
2018-01-20 @ Tennessee State Tigers W 76 - 57
2018-01-25 vs Morehead State Eagles W 87 - 81
2018-01-27 vs Eastern Kentucky Colonels W 88 - 73
2018-02-01 @ Southeast Missouri State Redhawks W 87 - 75
2018-02-03 @ UT Martin Skyhawks W 66 - 53
2018-02-08 vs Austin Peay Governors W 84 - 63
2018-02-10 @ SIU Edwardsville Cougars W 75 - 66
2018-02-15 vs Jacksonville State Gamecocks W 68 - 60
2018-02-17 vs Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles W 75 - 65
2018-02-22 @ Eastern Illinois Panthers W 76 - 66
2018-02-24 @ Austin Peay Governors W 73 - 64
2018-03-02 vs Jacksonville State Gamecocks W 70 - 63
2018-03-03 vs Belmont Bruins W 68 - 51
2018-03-16 @ West Virginia Mountaineers L 68 - 85

2018 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM GP PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Jonathan Stark Jonathan Stark G 25 36.9 22.4 2.6 4.0 1.4 0.1 2.6 3.7 24.2 187 23 8.1 10.0 39.8 34.0 96.3 4.43 267.4 49.5
T. Miller Jr. T. Miller Jr. F 25 30.4 14.7 8.7 1.3 0.8 0.5 2.0 2.9 21.0 150 23 6.5 9.7 42.5 51.6 73.1 1.54 217.3 53.4
Ja Morant Ja Morant - 25 34.8 12.7 6.5 6.2 1.0 0.5 2.6 2.4 21.8 149 23 6.5 8.7 45.0 36.4 83.3 -0.3 224.6 51.7
S. Buchanan S. Buchanan F 25 28.4 9.0 4.1 0.8 1.5 0.4 1.3 1.8 12.7 80 23 3.5 5.7 52.3 46.2 42.9 -1.86 239.0 59.1
Byron Hawkins Byron Hawkins G 24 17.7 6.3 1.2 0.8 0.5 0.0 0.8 1.2 6.8 102 22 4.6 12.6 42.9 35.7 55.6 0.7 236.2 51.8
Jalen Dupree Jalen Dupree F 24 17.2 4.8 4.2 0.1 0.2 1.0 0.7 0.4 9.2 83 21 4.0 12.0 33.3 0 63.6 1.09 307.8 33.3
Anthony Smith Anthony Smith F 25 15.6 3.8 3.6 0.4 0.6 0.6 1.0 0.4 7.6 49 23 2.1 7.3 40.0 0 54.5 -1.28 320.1 40.0
Brion Sanchious Brion Sanchious F 25 16.4 2.6 2.6 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.7 0.6 5.1 55 23 2.4 5.7 80.0 0 50.0 -2.09 204.7 80.0
Zach Hopewell Zach Hopewell G 10 1.5 0.9 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.0 - - - - 100.0 100.0 0 -2.36 450.0 150.0
Devin Gilmore Devin Gilmore F 9 1.7 0.4 0.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.1 - - - - 100.0 0 0 -2.36 200.0 100.0
Jachai Taylor Jachai Taylor G 12 4.5 0.3 0.5 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.8 -6 6 -1.0 -13.3 0 0 0 -2.46 0 0
Brion Whitley Brion Whitley - 1 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 -5 5 -1.0 -18.5 0 0 0 -1.83 0 0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG