Duke

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Also known as: Duke Blue Devils, Duke

Program History

Coach: Mike Krzyzewski

2014 Team Stats (30 games)

77.0

PPG

66.2

Opp

+10.8

Margin

44.7%

FG%

39.0%

3P%

73.8%

FT%

35.1

RPG

14.3

APG

9.4

Est. poss./game

81.2

Adj PPG

64.2

Adj Opp PPG

Scoring Rank

Model Outputs

2013-2014

Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model	Output	Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More →	1228 (#35)	-
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More →	1278 (#24)	-
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +92 elo More →	1099 (#52)	HCA +92 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.8 More →	+18.1 (#9)	HCA +2.8
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.9 More →	+14.8 (#16)	HCA +2.9
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More →	0.851 (#13)	-
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +27.2 More →	0.959 (#6)	AdjNet +27.2
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +27.4 More →	0.960 (#6)	AdjNet +27.4
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 81.2 \| AdjD 64.2 More →	0.824 (#8)	AdjO 81.2 \| AdjD 64.2
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 75.2 \| AdjD 65.6 More →	0.705 (#21)	AdjO 75.2 \| AdjD 65.6
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More →	0.855 (#16)	Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More →	0.837 (#17)	Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 110 \| GP 35 More →	1280 (#23)	RD 110 \| GP 35

2014 Schedule & Results

Date	Vs/At	Opponent	Result	Score
2013-11-08	vs	Davidson Wildcats	W	111 - 77
2013-11-12	vs	Kansas Jayhawks	L	83 - 94
2013-11-15	vs	Florida Atlantic Owls	W	97 - 64
2013-11-18	vs	UNC Asheville Bulldogs	W	91 - 55
2013-11-19	vs	East Carolina Pirates	W	83 - 74
2013-11-24	vs	Vermont Catamounts	W	91 - 90
2013-11-27	vs	Alabama Crimson Tide	W	74 - 64
2013-11-29	@	Arizona Wildcats	L	66 - 72
2013-12-03	vs	Michigan Wolverines	W	79 - 69
2013-12-16	vs	Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs	W	85 - 66
2013-12-19	vs	UCLA Bruins	W	80 - 63
2013-12-28	vs	Eastern Michigan Eagles	W	82 - 59
2013-12-31	@	Elon Phoenix	W	86 - 48
2014-01-04	@	Notre Dame Fighting Irish	L	77 - 79
2014-01-07	vs	Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets	W	79 - 57
2014-01-11	@	Clemson Tigers	L	59 - 72
2014-01-13	vs	Virginia Cavaliers	W	69 - 65
2014-01-18	vs	NC State Wolfpack	W	95 - 60
2014-01-22	@	Miami Hurricanes	W	67 - 46
2014-01-25	vs	Florida State Seminoles	W	78 - 56
2014-01-27	@	Pittsburgh Panthers	W	80 - 65
2014-02-01	@	Syracuse Orange	L	89 - 91
2014-02-04	vs	Wake Forest Demon Deacons	W	83 - 63
2014-02-08	@	Boston College Eagles	W	89 - 68
2014-02-12	@	North Carolina Tar Heels	-	Postponed
2014-02-15	vs	Maryland Terrapins	W	69 - 67
2014-02-18	@	Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets	W	68 - 51
2014-02-20	@	North Carolina Tar Heels	L	66 - 74
2014-02-22	vs	Syracuse Orange	W	66 - 60
2014-02-25	vs	Virginia Tech Hokies	W	66 - 48
2014-03-05	@	Wake Forest Demon Deacons	L	72 - 82
2014-03-08	vs	North Carolina Tar Heels	W	93 - 81
2014-03-14	vs	Clemson Tigers	W	63 - 62
2014-03-15	vs	NC State Wolfpack	W	75 - 67
2014-03-16	@	Virginia Cavaliers	L	63 - 72
2014-03-21	vs	Mercer Bears	L	71 - 78

2014 Roster

Show Alumni If everyone stayed four years

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player	Pos	GP	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TO	FGA	Numbers	PM	PM GP	PM/G	PM/40	FG%	3P%	FT%	RAPM	TS%	eFG%
Jabari Parker	F	34	30.5	19.1	8.7	1.1	1.1	1.1	2.3	13.5	15.3	147	24	6.1	8.6	46.3	33.3	75.6	2.81	59.6	49.9
Rodney Hood	F	34	32.6	15.6	3.9	2.2	0.7	0.2	1.5	11.3	9.9	158	24	6.6	8.5	43.8	39.8	80.0	3.08	61.2	52.1
Quinn Cook	G	34	29.5	11.5	2.1	4.2	1.3	0.0	1.6	8.4	9.2	125	24	5.2	7.3	42.5	37.5	84.3	0.05	62.1	53.0
Rasheed Sulaimon	G	33	25.7	10.0	2.5	2.5	0.8	0.0	1.1	6.9	7.7	100	23	4.3	7.2	39.7	40.0	76.8	0.94	59.5	48.5
Andre Dawkins	G	32	13.8	8.1	1.3	0.4	0.4	0.2	0.5	5.6	4.3	74	22	3.4	10.9	44.1	42.1	80.0	1.34	66.9	61.2
Amile Jefferson	F	34	23.1	6.5	6.9	1.1	0.7	0.6	0.7	4.1	11.0	125	24	5.2	9.6	62.3	0	52.1	2.27	65.6	62.3
Tyler Thornton	G	34	21.1	3.2	1.7	2.3	1.3	0.0	0.7	2.0	5.9	87	24	3.6	7.5	42.0	45.5	85.0	1.4	70.1	60.1
Semi Ojeleye	F	16	4.7	1.8	0.8	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.6	2.3	10	8	1.2	14.3	44.4	66.7	100.0	-0.61	111.8	55.6
Matt Jones	G	31	7.5	1.7	0.9	0.2	0.4	0.0	0.1	1.4	1.6	22	21	1.0	6.0	30.2	16.7	48.5	0.23	46.9	33.7
Josh Hairston	F	29	9.5	1.4	1.2	0.4	0.1	0.1	0.3	1.0	1.9	42	20	2.1	9.2	50.0	0	50.0	0.61	59.6	50.0
Marshall Plumlee	C	30	8.5	1.3	2.2	0.3	0.2	0.6	0.3	0.9	3.2	26	22	1.2	6.1	55.6	0	35.3	1.21	55.1	55.6
Alex Murphy	F	5	6.6	1.0	1.0	0.4	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.6	1.6	-	-	-	-	0.0	0.0	50.0	0.19	52.5	0.0
Nick Pagliuca	G	3	1.7	0.3	0.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.3	0.7	-	-	-	-	0.0	0	50.0	-0.49	26.6	0.0
Todd Zafirovski	F	2	2.0	0.0	0.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.5	-	-	-	-	0	0	0	-0.53	0	0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG