Model Predictions
| Model | North Carolina Tar Heels | Duke Blue Devils | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 16.7% | 83.3% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 28.3% | 71.7% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 25.4% | 74.6% | +5.9 | ✓ (6.1 off) |
| Pythagorean | 34.0% | 66.0% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 13.3% | 86.7% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 9.8% | 90.2% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 9.8% | 90.2% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Duke Blue Devils +12 (93-81). Predictions use season-end ratings.
North Carolina Tar Heels
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Paige * | 37 | 9-14 | 3-6 | 3-4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 24 | 14 | - |
| L. McDonald * | 30 | 5-9 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 3 | - |
| J.P. Tokoto * | 26 | 3-9 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 6 | - |
| J. McAdoo * | 24 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 5-6 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 12 | - |
| K. Meeks * | 12 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
| B. Johnson | 27 | 7-9 | 0-0 | 1-3 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 16 | - |
| N. Britt | 23 | 3-5 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 6 | - |
| D. Hubert | 10 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| J. Simmons | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| I. Hicks | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | - |
| J. James | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | - |
Duke Blue Devils
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Parker * | 35 | 10-17 | 2-4 | 8-9 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 30 | 26 | - |
| R. Hood * | 33 | 8-13 | 3-7 | 5-5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 24 | 12 | - |
| T. Thornton * | 20 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| A. Dawkins * | 20 | 3-8 | 1-5 | 1-1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 1 | - |
| J. Hairston * | 10 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | - |
| Q. Cook | 27 | 2-5 | 1-4 | 6-6 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 11 | - |
| A. Jefferson | 27 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 16 | - |
| R. Sulaimon | 20 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 5-6 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 10 | - |
| M. Plumlee | 5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| M. Jones | 3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
* = starter