Model Predictions
| Model | Virginia Cavaliers | Duke Blue Devils | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 28.2% | 71.8% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 34.7% | 65.3% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 19.3% | 80.7% | +7.9 | ✓ (3.9 off) |
| Pythagorean | 47.9% | 52.1% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 44.0% | 56.0% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 55.0% | 45.0% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 55.2% | 44.8% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Duke Blue Devils +4 (69-65). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Virginia Cavaliers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Brogdon * | 35 | 6-13 | 0-3 | 5-5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 7 | - |
| J. Harris * | 33 | 5-12 | 2-4 | 3-3 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 12 | - |
| A. Mitchell * | 33 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 1-5 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 10 | - |
| L. Perrantes * | 26 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | - |
| M. Tobey * | 25 | 2-9 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 4 | - |
| J. Anderson | 26 | 4-10 | 2-3 | 2-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 6 | - |
| A. Gill | 10 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | - |
| E. Nolte | 6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
| D. Atkins | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | - |
| T. Jones | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
Duke Blue Devils
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Hood * | 29 | 5-12 | 2-6 | 2-2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 6 | - |
| Q. Cook * | 29 | 2-7 | 1-3 | 2-3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 2 | - |
| A. Jefferson * | 28 | 4-4 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 15 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 24 | - |
| J. Parker * | 26 | 3-11 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 | - |
| M. Jones * | 19 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 4-6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | - |
| R. Sulaimon | 24 | 7-11 | 4-5 | 3-4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 14 | - |
| A. Dawkins | 12 | 1-3 | 1-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | - |
| M. Plumlee | 12 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - |
| T. Thornton | 12 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - |
| J. Hairston | 7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| S. Ojeleye | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - |
* = starter