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2014-01-13

Model Predictions

Model Virginia Cavaliers Duke Blue Devils Spread Result
Elo 28.2% 71.8% -
Bradley-Terry 34.7% 65.3% -
Margin 19.3% 80.7% +7.9 (3.9 off)
Pythagorean 47.9% 52.1% -
Efficiency 44.0% 56.0% -
Adjusted Efficiency 55.0% 45.0% -
Log Adjusted 55.2% 44.8% -

Actual: Duke Blue Devils +4 (69-65). Predictions use season-end ratings.

Virginia Cavaliers

Player MIN FG 3PT FT REB AST STL BLK TO PTS Numbers RAPM GS
M. Brogdon * 35 6-13 0-3 5-5 5 0 0 0 2 17 7 -
J. Harris * 33 5-12 2-4 3-3 7 0 3 0 1 15 12 -
A. Mitchell * 33 3-7 0-0 1-5 9 1 1 1 2 7 10 -
L. Perrantes * 26 1-2 0-0 0-0 2 3 0 0 1 2 4 -
M. Tobey * 25 2-9 0-0 4-4 4 1 0 0 0 8 4 -
J. Anderson 26 4-10 2-3 2-3 3 1 1 0 1 12 6 -
A. Gill 10 0-2 0-0 2-4 2 0 0 0 0 2 2 -
E. Nolte 6 0-0 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 0 1 0 -1 -
D. Atkins 4 0-0 0-0 2-2 1 0 0 0 0 2 3 -
T. Jones 2 0-0 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -

Duke Blue Devils

Player MIN FG 3PT FT REB AST STL BLK TO PTS Numbers RAPM GS
R. Hood * 29 5-12 2-6 2-2 2 2 0 0 0 14 6 -
Q. Cook * 29 2-7 1-3 2-3 3 2 0 0 3 7 2 -
A. Jefferson * 28 4-4 0-0 2-3 15 2 2 1 2 10 24 -
J. Parker * 26 3-11 2-7 0-0 3 1 0 1 2 8 0 -
M. Jones * 19 0-1 0-0 4-6 1 0 0 0 0 4 4 -
R. Sulaimon 24 7-11 4-5 3-4 1 2 2 0 1 21 14 -
A. Dawkins 12 1-3 1-1 2-2 1 1 0 0 0 5 4 -
M. Plumlee 12 0-0 0-0 0-0 1 0 0 1 0 0 2 -
T. Thornton 12 0-0 0-0 0-0 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 -
J. Hairston 7 0-0 0-0 0-0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 -
S. Ojeleye 2 0-0 0-0 0-0 2 1 0 0 0 0 3 -

* = starter