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Dayton

Also known as: Dayton Flyers, Dayton
Program History

2013 Team Stats (3 games)

66.7
PPG
66.7
Opp
+5.1
Margin
41.3%
FG%
32.6%
3P%
67.5%
FT%
35.3
RPG
9.7
APG
16.0
TO
81.1
Pace

Model Outputs

2012-2013
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 1561 (#50) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1482 (#56) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +147 elo More → 1024 (#138) HCA +147 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +3.0 More → +34.0 (#49) HCA +3.0
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.3 More → +17.5 (#58) HCA +3.3
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.679 (#25) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff +0.0 More → 0.500 (#98) NetEff +0.0
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +8.2 More → 0.717 (#38) AdjNet +8.2
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +8.3 More → 0.720 (#40) AdjNet +8.3
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 71.1 | AdjD 64.9 More → 0.636 (#79) AdjO 71.1 | AdjD 64.9
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.824 (#73) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.797 (#74) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 132 | GP 32 More → 1111 (#115) RD 132 | GP 32

2013 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2012-11-10 vs Arkansas State Red Wolves W 74 - 61
2012-11-15 @ Colorado Buffaloes L 57 - 67
2012-11-16 @ Boston College Eagles W 87 - 71
2012-11-18 @ Auburn Tigers W 73 - 63
2012-11-24 vs Manhattan Jaspers W 66 - 58
2012-11-28 vs Weber State Wildcats L 61 - 62
2012-12-01 vs Northern Illinois Huskies W 60 - 43
2012-12-05 @ Alabama Crimson Tide W 81 - 76
2012-12-08 vs Miami (OH) Redhawks W 83 - 61
2012-12-15 vs Florida Atlantic Owls W 81 - 56
2012-12-19 vs Illinois State Redbirds L 73 - 74
2012-12-22 vs Murray State Racers W 77 - 68
2012-12-30 @ USC Trojans L 61 - 63
2013-01-05 vs UAB Blazers W 78 - 71
2013-01-09 @ VCU Rams L 62 - 74
2013-01-12 vs Butler Bulldogs L 73 - 79
2013-01-16 @ La Salle Explorers L 70 - 72
2013-01-23 vs Fordham Rams W 96 - 51
2013-01-26 vs Duquesne Dukes W 72 - 56
2013-01-30 @ Xavier Musketeers L 61 - 66
2013-02-02 @ Saint Louis Billikens L 52 - 81
2013-02-06 vs Saint Joseph's Hawks W 60 - 54
2013-02-09 vs Temple Owls L 71 - 72
2013-02-13 @ Rhode Island Rams L 72 - 75
2013-02-16 vs Xavier Musketeers W 70 - 59
2013-02-23 @ UMass Minutemen L 66 - 76
2013-02-27 @ Charlotte 49ers W 88 - 67
2013-03-02 vs Richmond Spiders W 78 - 74
2013-03-06 vs St. Bonaventure Bonnies W 75 - 63
2013-03-09 @ George Washington Colonials L 80 - 81
2013-03-14 @ Butler Bulldogs L 67 - 73

2013 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
C. Sant C. Sant - 1 0.0 19.0 5.0 4.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 14.0 15.0 - - - 64.3 50.0 0 - 67.9 67.9
K. Dillard K. Dillard G 31 33.0 15.3 1.9 4.5 1.1 0.1 3.2 3.1 16.7 131 4.2 6.0 39.2 45.9 89.5 1.39 208.0 47.9
V. Sanford V. Sanford G 31 29.1 12.3 2.7 2.3 1.0 0.3 2.1 3.0 13.5 127 4.1 6.0 48.9 38.9 89.5 1.19 189.8 56.5
J. Hudson J. Hudson - 1 0.0 12.0 4.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 14.0 4.0 - - - 35.7 50.0 50.0 - 40.3 39.3
A. Hoover A. Hoover - 1 0.0 12.0 11.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 14.0 11.0 - - - 28.6 33.3 100.0 - 40.3 35.7
J. Benson J. Benson F-C 31 23.4 10.6 4.2 0.9 0.5 1.0 2.2 1.8 13.4 124 4.0 7.5 56.4 0 53.8 1.03 246.8 56.4
D. Oliver D. Oliver F 31 28.5 8.9 7.8 1.8 1.2 0.2 2.0 2.0 15.9 85 2.7 4.2 40.3 21.4 47.4 0.77 196.8 42.7
D. Pierre D. Pierre F 31 27.3 8.8 5.1 2.0 0.4 0.2 1.6 1.2 13.7 90 2.9 4.7 52.6 50.0 55.6 0.97 297.3 61.8
J. Robinson J. Robinson C 31 18.7 6.1 5.1 0.5 0.7 0.3 1.2 1.1 10.3 257 7.6 11.9 31.4 0 65.0 1.23 214.6 31.4
S. MacKay S. MacKay - 1 0.0 6.0 8.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 5.0 9.0 6.0 - - - 22.2 0.0 100.0 - 30.4 22.2
M. Derenbecker M. Derenbecker F 30 13.6 4.5 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.8 4.9 61 2.0 4.5 48.0 45.5 0.0 0.47 267.3 68.0
K. Price K. Price G 24 18.3 2.8 1.5 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.8 0.7 4.8 70 2.9 5.3 47.1 53.8 100.0 0.45 181.2 67.6
A. Deane A. Deane - 1 0.0 2.0 3.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 2.0 1.0 3.0 - - - 0.0 0 100.0 - 53.2 0.0
A. Gavrilovic A. Gavrilovic F 22 8.2 2.0 1.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.5 2.6 61 2.8 9.1 60.0 0 80.0 0.59 176.2 60.0
D. Scott D. Scott C 27 8.9 2.0 1.7 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.3 3.5 214 6.5 8.4 44.4 0 46.2 1.07 186.8 44.4
B. Vonderhaar B. Vonderhaar G 11 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.4 12 1.0 13.8 0 0 0 0.13 0 0
M. Asmus M. Asmus - 4 1.8 0.0 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 - - - 0.0 0 0 - 0.0 0.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG