Model Predictions
| Model | Arkansas State Red Wolves | Dayton Flyers | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 14.6% | 85.4% | +11.4 | ✓ (1.6 off) |
| Bradley-Terry | 26.9% | 73.1% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 27.2% | 72.8% | +10.9 | ✓ (2.1 off) |
| Pythagorean | 51.3% | 48.7% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 23.2% | 76.8% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 21.8% | 78.2% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 28.3% | 71.7% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Dayton Flyers +13 (74-61). Ratings: 2012-13 season-end ratings (they include this game).
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Arkansas State Red Wolves
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kendrick Washington * | 37 | 7-13 | 0-1 | 1-4 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 12 | -0.2 |
| Brandon Peterson * | 35 | 3-10 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 7 | -5.8 |
| Trey Finn * | 30 | 2-6 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 5 | -1.7 |
| Marcus Hooten * | 24 | 2-7 | 0-3 | 3-3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 3 | +2.4 |
| Cameron Golden * | 19 | 2-7 | 1-5 | 3-3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 1 | -12.6 |
| Ed Townsel | 32 | 5-10 | 3-6 | 1-2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 8 | -2.2 |
| Rakeem Dickerson | 9 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 | +5.0 |
| Kelvin Downs | 8 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -2.3 |
| Raeford Worsham | 6 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.2 |
Dayton Flyers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Dillard * | 35 | 3-13 | 2-6 | 4-4 | 6 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 11 | +1.8 |
| Vee Sanford * | 30 | 7-10 | 3-5 | 1-1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 11 | +6.1 |
| Devin Oliver * | 30 | 3-4 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 11 | +8.7 |
| Josh Benson * | 27 | 7-9 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 11 | +6.4 |
| Jalen Robinson * | 16 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 2 | +0.8 |
| Devon Scott | 19 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -5.6 |
| Alex Gavrilovic | 18 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | +5.5 |
| Matt Derenbecker | 14 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | +6.2 |
| Dyshawn Pierre | 10 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 9 | -4.0 |
| Brian Vonderhaar | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3.1 |
* = starter