Model Predictions
| Model | Dayton Flyers | Saint Louis Billikens | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 29.2% | 70.8% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 38.9% | 61.1% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 45.0% | 55.0% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 48.5% | 51.5% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 41.6% | 58.4% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 41.9% | 58.1% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 45.5% | 54.5% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Saint Louis Billikens +29 (81-52). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Dayton Flyers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Dillard * | 33 | 4-10 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 9 | -2 | -21.2 |
| Vee Sanford * | 33 | 5-9 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 10 | 0 | -24.9 |
| Dyshawn Pierre * | 30 | 2-6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 7 | -9.0 |
| Devin Oliver * | 25 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 0 | -16.1 |
| Jalen Robinson * | 11 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -8.2 |
| Josh Benson | 30 | 4-10 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 12 | -24.9 |
| Matt Derenbecker | 19 | 1-5 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -2 | -18.4 |
| Alex Gavrilovic | 9 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -5.0 |
| Devon Scott | 7 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -0.7 |
| Brian Vonderhaar | 3 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | +7.2 |
Saint Louis Billikens
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kwamain Mitchell * | 29 | 4-9 | 3-5 | 1-2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 4 | +17.5 |
| Dwayne Evans * | 26 | 6-9 | 0-0 | 3-3 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 17 | +18.6 |
| Mike McCall Jr. * | 26 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 8 | +22.5 |
| Rob Loe * | 23 | 5-9 | 3-6 | 4-5 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 16 | +19.3 |
| Grandy Glaze * | 19 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | +9.2 |
| Cody Ellis | 20 | 3-8 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 5 | +18.2 |
| Jordair Jett | 19 | 4-6 | 0-1 | 3-3 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 17 | +30.0 |
| Jake Barnett | 16 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | +8.4 |
| Cory Remekun | 13 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 4 | +12.9 |
| John Manning | 4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | -5.5 |
| Sean Duff | 3 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -7.5 |
| Joey LePak | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -5.5 |
* = starter