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Wartburg

Season: 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017
Also known as: Wartburg
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 1080 (#93) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1122 (#110) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +62 elo More → 1179 (#36) HCA +62 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.3 More → +18.5 (#39) HCA +2.3
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.9 More → +14.6 (#167) HCA +2.9
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.939 (#209) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff +15.3 More → 0.893 (#166) NetEff +15.3
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +30.8 More → 0.973 (#148) AdjNet +30.8
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +30.7 More → 0.975 (#149) AdjNet +30.7
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 69.8 | AdjD 51.5 More → 0.841 (#153) AdjO 69.8 | AdjD 51.5
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 62.3 | AdjD 47.0 More → 0.801 (#60) AdjO 62.3 | AdjD 47.0
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.847 (#107) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.850 (#98) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 100 | GP 22 More → 1191 (#72) RD 100 | GP 22

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-07 vs Knox W 84 - 61
2025-11-08 vs Johns Hopkins L 49 - 70
2025-11-14 vs DePauw L 56 - 63
2025-11-15 @ Wis. Lutheran L 53 - 67
2025-11-22 @ Carroll (WI) L 61 - 67
2025-12-03 vs Luther W 64 - 46
2025-12-13 @ Loras W 80 - 71
2025-12-20 @ Colorado Col. L 49 - 50
2025-12-29 vs Lake Forest W 81 - 26
2025-12-30 vs Concordia Wisconsin W 53 - 40
2026-01-14 vs Buena Vista W 87 - 49
2026-01-17 @ Central (IA) W 80 - 43
2026-01-21 vs Simpson W 58 - 39
2026-01-24 vs Coe W 52 - 46
2026-01-28 @ Luther W 68 - 63
2026-01-31 vs Loras W 60 - 43
2026-02-04 vs Dubuque W 73 - 44
2026-02-07 @ Neb. Wesleyan W 62 - 36

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Katie Boulanger - 18 27.8 17.1 4.4 0.8 1.7 0.6 2.3 12.1 10.3 102 4.6 18.7 50.7 47.7 85.2 0.51 64.0 60.4
Grace Hennessy - 18 27.2 11.6 3.5 1.1 1.3 1.9 1.6 10.6 7.4 69 3.1 12.8 39.5 31.9 71.0 3.15 51.3 49.2
Lauren Golinghorst - 14 23.0 10.4 4.3 1.1 1.1 0.4 1.6 8.9 6.7 57 3.8 15.4 42.7 41.7 90.5 2.73 54.4 50.8
Corrie Harrison - 11 22.0 10.1 6.7 1.9 1.1 0.6 2.8 7.3 10.4 24 1.7 9.6 58.8 0 63.0 0.96 60.4 58.8
Katelyn Aden - 13 17.2 5.6 2.2 0.9 1.2 0.3 1.8 5.8 2.6 55 3.2 25.1 30.3 27.7 87.5 1.58 44.0 38.8
Reagan Pagniano - 15 16.8 3.9 2.7 2.9 1.3 0.1 0.9 3.5 6.4 42 2.2 34.8 36.5 44.4 80.0 0.69 51.4 48.1
Carly Rich - 13 10.4 3.5 1.2 0.6 0.5 0.0 0.7 2.7 2.5 5 0.3 4.0 42.9 46.9 0.0 2.48 62.7 64.3
Lauren Donlea - 18 19.1 3.3 2.3 2.9 0.7 0.2 1.9 2.7 4.8 73 3.3 17.5 39.6 37.1 80.0 3.26 56.3 53.1
Laynee Hogan - 18 16.7 2.8 2.5 0.9 0.7 1.1 1.6 3.6 2.7 7 0.3 2.3 29.2 0.0 52.2 -0.1 33.3 29.2
Emma Townsley - 18 18.0 2.6 2.3 2.2 1.9 0.0 1.3 3.6 4.2 101 4.6 25.7 29.2 11.5 54.5 2.19 33.6 31.5
Ally Poegel - 9 8.5 2.4 1.6 0.4 0.7 0.1 0.3 2.4 2.4 -12 -1.2 -10.3 40.9 0.0 80.0 0.3 45.5 40.9
Lauren McLaughlin - 5 4.0 2.0 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.4 1.6 3 0.5 15.3 42.9 50.0 75.0 -0.43 57.1 50.0
Sydney Lamkin - 3 2.4 1.7 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3 1.0 4 1.0 39.8 50.0 50.0 0 -0.77 62.5 62.5
Maddie Pavelka - 13 14.3 1.5 3.0 1.1 0.5 0.2 1.0 3.0 2.2 2 0.1 2.8 20.5 0.0 42.9 -0.09 22.6 20.5
Finley Fitzgerald - 11 7.3 0.5 0.8 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.9 1.3 -0.3 -18 -1.4 -31.1 14.3 20.0 0.0 0.47 15.9 17.9
Ava Trettin - 10 5.5 0.4 1.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.5 1.6 -31 -2.6 -34.5 20.0 0 50.0 0.58 29.6 20.0
Addy Tupa - 6 3.6 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.3 14 1.8 99.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
Averie Landon - 2 4.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.0 -0.5 - - - 0.0 0.0 0 - 0.0 0.0
Brooklyn Murphy - 2 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 -1.0 8 2.7 243.0 0.0 0.0 0 -0.07 0.0 0.0
Brenna Bodensteiner - 1 3.5 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 -1.0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 -0.16 0.0 0.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG