🐻⬇️🏀

Dubuque

Also known as: Dubuque
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 911 (#392) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 868 (#492) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +62 elo More → 766 (#706) HCA +62 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.3 More → -6.9 (#264) HCA +2.3
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.9 More → -16.1 (#570) HCA +2.9
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.384 (#503) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff -19.2 More → 0.071 (#504) NetEff -19.2
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +2.7 More → 0.576 (#357) AdjNet +2.7
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +2.6 More → 0.577 (#353) AdjNet +2.6
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 61.7 | AdjD 60.6 More → 0.524 (#357) AdjO 61.7 | AdjD 60.6
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 56.3 | AdjD 69.2 More → 0.237 (#641) AdjO 56.3 | AdjD 69.2
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.158 (#628) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.156 (#635) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 101 | GP 21 More → 730 (#526) RD 101 | GP 21

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-08 @ Marian (WI) W 74 - 67
2025-11-12 @ Lakeland W 77 - 75
2025-11-15 @ Saint Benedict L 42 - 75
2025-11-16 @ Cornell College L 52 - 61
2025-11-21 vs Wis.-Platteville L 48 - 68
2025-11-25 @ Wheaton (IL) L 43 - 54
2025-12-03 vs Loras W 63 - 51
2025-12-13 @ Central (IA) W 63 - 58
2025-12-29 vs Wis.-Stout L 52 - 76
2025-12-30 vs Augustana (IL) L 64 - 83
2026-01-10 @ Neb. Wesleyan L 59 - 64
2026-01-14 @ Coe L 37 - 77
2026-01-17 vs Simpson L 52 - 84
2026-01-21 @ Luther L 64 - 76
2026-01-28 @ Loras L 54 - 71
2026-01-31 @ Buena Vista L 52 - 89
2026-02-04 @ Wartburg L 44 - 73
2026-02-07 vs Central (IA) L 75 - 86

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Christina Simonetti - 18 24.0 11.7 9.7 0.7 1.1 0.7 2.4 9.5 11.8 -73 -3.8 -22.9 40.9 0 70.0 -1.19 48.8 40.9
Felicity Figlinski - 11 34.3 9.0 4.2 2.8 1.8 0.5 2.7 7.9 7.6 -43 -3.1 -35.5 37.9 38.0 87.5 -0.14 52.6 48.9
Lilly Craig - 18 31.4 8.9 4.9 1.2 0.8 0.7 2.1 8.9 5.6 -154 -7.3 -34.7 36.9 27.7 65.2 -0.84 44.7 40.9
Grace Brumley - 17 22.1 8.5 3.8 0.8 0.7 0.2 2.2 9.2 2.6 -27 -1.5 -10.7 29.9 31.2 65.2 -0.73 40.6 36.3
Avery Green - 17 29.8 7.0 2.8 3.1 1.4 0.1 2.5 7.1 4.8 -135 -6.8 -44.6 35.0 20.4 73.5 -1.68 44.1 39.2
Taylor Martin - 18 29.4 6.7 3.9 2.1 0.9 0.2 2.8 6.7 4.1 -186 -8.9 -53.7 35.5 25.0 69.4 -2.45 43.8 39.3
Karsyn Pankonen - 16 18.0 3.4 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.1 1.8 3.5 0.8 -160 -8.9 -57.1 35.7 27.3 69.2 -1.43 44.6 41.1
Zoe Njus - 15 8.0 2.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.0 2.3 0.5 -9 -0.6 -6.1 38.2 50.0 88.9 -0.43 58.0 52.9
Ella Gabbert - 18 17.9 2.8 0.8 0.8 0.1 0.1 1.4 2.9 0.2 -99 -5.2 -41.0 30.8 28.9 83.3 -1.39 45.8 43.3
Claire Nazos - 8 3.2 0.9 0.9 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.4 0.5 1.2 4 0.4 564.7 25.0 0.0 62.5 -0.01 46.5 25.0
Boden Budrecki - 9 5.8 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.7 -14 -1.4 -15.5 0.0 0.0 83.3 -2.16 32.7 0.0
Lexi Seabaugh - 5 3.1 0.2 1.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.4 -12 -2.0 -37.3 0.0 0.0 50.0 -1.03 10.2 0.0
Mya Gillespie - 6 2.7 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.5 -1.0 5 0.7 52.6 0.0 0 0 0.01 0.0 0.0
Kristina Tierney - 1 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG