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Luther

Season: 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2017 2016
Also known as: Luther
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 980 (#280) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1010 (#319) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +62 elo More → 1000 (#442) HCA +62 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.3 More → +3.1 (#163) HCA +2.3
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.9 More → +0.5 (#362) HCA +2.9
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.630 (#385) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff -5.3 More → 0.332 (#407) NetEff -5.3
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +8.3 More → 0.722 (#308) AdjNet +8.3
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +8.2 More → 0.724 (#305) AdjNet +8.2
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 69.4 | AdjD 65.0 More → 0.598 (#302) AdjO 69.4 | AdjD 65.0
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 67.3 | AdjD 65.1 More → 0.549 (#306) AdjO 67.3 | AdjD 65.1
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.530 (#360) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.536 (#351) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 96 | GP 21 More → 987 (#329) RD 96 | GP 21

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-07 vs Johns Hopkins L 60 - 95
2025-11-08 @ Knox W 86 - 81
2025-11-13 @ Crown (MN) W 74 - 65
2025-11-22 @ Wis.-La Crosse L 60 - 83
2025-11-25 vs Northwestern-St. Paul W 94 - 68
2025-12-03 @ Wartburg L 46 - 64
2025-12-10 @ Martin Luther W 75 - 60
2025-12-13 vs Cornell College L 68 - 73
2025-12-30 vs Carthage L 52 - 78
2026-01-10 vs Central (IA) W 79 - 61
2026-01-14 vs Loras W 62 - 58
2026-01-17 @ Buena Vista L 61 - 73
2026-01-21 vs Dubuque W 76 - 64
2026-01-24 @ Neb. Wesleyan W 86 - 50
2026-01-28 vs Wartburg L 63 - 68
2026-01-31 @ Simpson W 85 - 76
2026-02-04 vs Coe L 56 - 89

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Natalie Beaver - 15 30.1 16.6 8.6 1.3 1.5 0.6 2.3 13.5 12.9 20 1.1 9.0 44.1 31.2 78.3 3.53 54.5 50.0
Haylie Strum - 17 33.7 16.1 5.4 4.5 2.1 1.2 3.1 13.0 13.2 5 0.3 1.7 45.2 26.4 78.7 3.44 53.7 48.4
Abigail Panka - 17 22.8 9.8 5.8 0.8 0.6 0.3 1.4 9.1 6.9 -47 -2.5 -19.5 38.7 27.6 76.5 -0.09 47.1 41.3
Lexi Thomas - 17 25.0 7.5 3.4 1.1 0.5 0.2 1.9 7.4 3.4 -1 -0.1 -0.4 36.0 35.6 75.0 0.62 49.4 48.4
Katie Hardtke - 17 16.9 4.8 2.8 1.2 0.9 0.0 1.2 5.4 3.1 -44 -2.4 -26.5 29.3 26.4 61.9 0.11 40.0 37.0
Abby Anderson - 16 14.4 4.4 2.4 0.2 0.6 0.2 1.4 3.1 3.4 -43 -2.4 -34.0 46.0 100.0 70.6 1.79 54.6 47.0
Ellie McMann - 17 22.5 3.9 3.4 2.6 1.3 0.1 2.7 3.7 4.9 -19 -1.0 -7.8 33.3 28.6 75.0 -1.08 44.9 38.1
Lyndee Northrop - 9 7.8 3.1 2.3 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.9 2.3 3.4 -4 -0.4 -5.7 47.6 0 72.7 -1.93 54.2 47.6
Kenai Holien - 16 13.4 2.8 1.1 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.9 3.2 0.8 -35 -1.9 -23.2 30.8 10.5 66.7 -1.35 37.5 32.7
Katelyn Ubl - 16 13.0 2.1 0.3 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.6 2.0 0.6 -37 -1.9 -28.6 34.4 36.7 0 -0.39 51.6 51.6
Nastya Cicala - 8 7.5 2.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.9 0.1 2 0.2 3.6 33.3 38.5 100.0 -0.51 53.5 50.0
Sydney Schradle - 13 9.7 1.8 1.4 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.5 1.5 1.8 -1 -0.1 -2.0 47.4 100.0 71.4 2.39 54.3 50.0
Piper Hicks - 2 1.5 1.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.0 - - - 100.0 100.0 0 - 150.0 150.0
Imani Toso - 1 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.0 -4.0 - - - 0.0 0.0 0 - 0.0 0.0
Faith Pavlos - 3 2.0 0.0 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 -0.15 0 0
Cadence Okerman - 1 2.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0
Kadence Popejoy - 3 2.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.3 -1.0 2 0.7 34.8 0.0 0 0 -0.18 0.0 0.0
Renae Foster - 1 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 - - - 0.0 0.0 0 - 0.0 0.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG