Carroll (WI)
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 1072 (#102) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1267 (#21) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 1213 (#19) | HCA +62 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +21.6 (#23) | HCA +2.3 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | +13.9 (#173) | HCA +2.9 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.885 (#253) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.779 (#237) | NetEff +10.1 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.979 (#143) | AdjNet +33.1 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.980 (#142) | AdjNet +32.9 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.870 (#139) | AdjO 80.7 | AdjD 59.8 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.766 (#79) | AdjO 71.6 | AdjD 58.5 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.871 (#87) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.866 (#84) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 1292 (#28) | RD 100 | GP 22 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-07 | vs | Wis.-Oshkosh | L | 59 - 62 |
| 2025-11-08 | @ | St. Norbert | W | 75 - 48 |
| 2025-11-12 | vs | Beloit | W | 72 - 45 |
| 2025-11-19 | @ | Wis.-Whitewater | L | 62 - 73 |
| 2025-11-22 | vs | Wartburg | W | 67 - 61 |
| 2025-11-25 | vs | UChicago | W | 73 - 52 |
| 2025-11-30 | vs | Ripon | W | 86 - 74 |
| 2025-12-03 | @ | Wheaton (IL) | W | 76 - 52 |
| 2026-01-10 | vs | Millikin | W | 82 - 64 |
| 2026-01-14 | @ | North Central (IL) | W | 78 - 74 |
| 2026-01-17 | @ | Augustana (IL) | W | 75 - 71 |
| 2026-01-21 | vs | North Park | W | 79 - 63 |
| 2026-01-24 | vs | Ill. Wesleyan | W | 68 - 48 |
| 2026-01-28 | vs | North Central (IL) | W | 74 - 63 |
| 2026-01-31 | vs | Wheaton (IL) | W | 81 - 56 |
| 2026-02-04 | @ | Elmhurst | W | 63 - 50 |
| 2026-02-07 | vs | Augustana (IL) | W | 75 - 55 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Natalie Gricius | - | 17 | 30.3 | 22.5 | 6.6 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 0.1 | 3.0 | 13.9 | 16.0 | 78 | 3.4 | 14.6 | 61.9 | 34.3 | 77.0 | 4.05 | 69.6 | 66.7 |
| Emilie Wizner | - | 17 | 33.1 | 16.7 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 1.4 | 14.0 | 7.8 | 83 | 3.6 | 13.8 | 41.2 | 39.2 | 72.5 | 3.06 | 54.5 | 51.9 |
| Julia Lokker | - | 17 | 24.1 | 14.6 | 3.7 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.2 | 1.6 | 12.4 | 8.7 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 46.0 | 34.8 | 79.5 | 0.46 | 54.6 | 51.7 |
| Anna Nielsen | - | 17 | 21.2 | 6.5 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.1 | 1.6 | 5.1 | 6.1 | 13 | 0.6 | 3.6 | 43.0 | 40.0 | 68.3 | 0.82 | 52.9 | 47.7 |
| Katie Barger | - | 16 | 28.1 | 3.9 | 4.6 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 0.2 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 9.6 | 40 | 1.8 | 8.7 | 67.6 | 0.0 | 75.0 | 2.59 | 70.4 | 67.6 |
| Ryann Wendt | - | 16 | 21.2 | 3.9 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 3.6 | 7.4 | 23 | 1.0 | 5.0 | 39.7 | 30.0 | 59.1 | 3.06 | 45.8 | 42.2 |
| Kacy Kratz | - | 17 | 17.6 | 2.4 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 2.9 | 4.4 | 43 | 1.9 | 12.6 | 30.0 | 21.4 | 33.3 | 1.44 | 33.9 | 33.0 |
| Kailey Wozniak | - | 3 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 2.0 | -8 | -1.3 | -58.4 | 66.7 | 0 | 100.0 | 0.36 | 72.7 | 66.7 |
| Lainey Gussman | - | 17 | 13.3 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 3.1 | 16 | 0.7 | 7.1 | 48.0 | 14.3 | 33.3 | 1.37 | 48.8 | 50.0 |
| Alayna Petalber | - | 11 | 10.4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 2.7 | -0.3 | 18 | 1.1 | 15.0 | 13.3 | 11.8 | 0.0 | 1.56 | 15.7 | 16.7 |
| Lauren Capstran | - | 11 | 3.9 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.8 | -29 | -2.1 | -91.9 | 33.3 | 0.0 | 75.0 | -0.57 | 52.5 | 33.3 |
| Ciara McMahon | - | 9 | 4.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | -18 | -1.5 | -49.6 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 50.0 | -1.26 | 18.4 | 15.0 |
| Shannon Earley | - | 5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 1.2 | -9 | -1.5 | -93.1 | 50.0 | 0 | 0 | -0.84 | 50.0 | 50.0 |
| Juliette Huff | - | 6 | 2.2 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.8 | -5 | -0.7 | -35.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | 0.03 | 34.7 | 0.0 |
| McKenna Delaney | - | 3 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.7 | -0.7 | -2 | -0.7 | -77.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | -0.35 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Payton Hayes | - | 2 | 1.3 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.35 | 0 | 0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG