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Toledo

Season: 2027 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018
Also known as: Toledo Rockets, Toledo
Program History
Coach: Tod Kowalczyk

Model Outputs

2011-2012
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 980 (#178) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 967 (#194) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +101 elo More → 1015 (#151) HCA +101 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +3.2 More → -2.3 (#206) HCA +3.2
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.2 More → -1.7 (#196) HCA +3.2
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.521 (#154) -
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -3.4 More → 0.402 (#196) AdjNet -3.4
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -3.5 More → 0.400 (#196) AdjNet -3.5
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 67.1 | AdjD 69.3 More → 0.450 (#205) AdjO 67.1 | AdjD 69.3
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 65.8 | AdjD 66.8 More → 0.478 (#186) AdjO 65.8 | AdjD 66.8
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.478 (#184) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.484 (#178) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 106 | GP 32 More → 1014 (#161) RD 106 | GP 32

2012 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2011-11-18 @ Texas State Bobcats L 91 - 94
2011-11-19 @ South Carolina Upstate Spartans W 75 - 70
2011-11-20 @ UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros W 64 - 54
2011-11-21 vs Victory University Eagles W 90 - 47
2011-11-26 vs UIC Flames W 82 - 67
2011-11-30 vs UNC Wilmington Seahawks W 75 - 73
2011-12-03 @ Chicago State Cougars W 73 - 61
2011-12-07 vs Temple Owls L 58 - 77
2011-12-10 vs Loyola Chicago Ramblers L 55 - 57
2011-12-17 vs Youngstown State Penguins W 86 - 77
2011-12-20 vs Norfolk State Spartans L 70 - 72
2011-12-22 @ Florida Gulf Coast Eagles L 80 - 83
2011-12-28 vs Cleveland State Vikings L 64 - 72
2012-01-03 vs IU-Northwest RedHawks W 107 - 43
2012-01-07 @ Central Michigan Chippewas L 69 - 85
2012-01-10 vs Ball State Cardinals L 68 - 70
2012-01-14 @ Western Michigan Broncos L 52 - 74
2012-01-18 vs Northern Illinois Huskies W 71 - 41
2012-01-25 @ Miami (OH) Redhawks W 63 - 61
2012-01-28 vs Kent State Golden Flashes L 61 - 77
2012-02-01 @ Akron Zips L 72 - 86
2012-02-04 vs Buffalo Bulls L 65 - 72
2012-02-08 vs Ohio Bobcats W 77 - 73
2012-02-15 @ Ball State Cardinals W 63 - 55
2012-02-18 @ Sam Houston Bearkats W 59 - 58
2012-02-22 vs Central Michigan Chippewas W 72 - 67
2012-02-25 vs Western Michigan Broncos W 83 - 74
2012-02-29 @ Northern Illinois Huskies L 61 - 65
2012-03-03 vs Eastern Michigan Eagles W 76 - 51
2012-03-05 vs Miami (OH) Redhawks W 60 - 53
2012-03-07 vs Central Michigan Chippewas W 75 - 72
2012-03-08 @ Ohio Bobcats L 57 - 65
2012-03-13 vs McNeese Cowboys W 76 - 63
2012-03-17 vs Robert Morris Colonials L 51 - 69

2012 Roster

Minutes by Position

Each player's share of the team's minutes per game (season minutes over the roster's), placed by position, so every column is one game's minutes. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM GP PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Rian Pearson Rian Pearson G 34 32.1 16.6 8.4 1.9 1.5 0.3 2.5 3.3 22.9 23 25 0.9 1.2 45.5 12.5 66.7 0.42 220.6 46.0
Curtis Dennis Curtis Dennis G-F 26 26.2 12.1 3.4 1.5 1.3 0.1 1.5 3.0 14.0 38 20 1.9 3.1 43.6 30.0 77.3 0.55 179.6 51.3
Julius Brown Julius Brown G 34 31.6 11.9 2.5 5.0 1.1 0.1 3.1 2.3 15.2 -26 25 -1.0 -1.5 45.5 29.2 65.4 -3.13 227.8 50.0
Dominique Buckley Dominique Buckley G 34 30.4 9.9 2.8 2.9 1.5 0.2 2.0 1.5 13.8 63 25 2.5 3.5 40.0 42.3 93.8 3.18 293.7 51.0
Matt Smith Matt Smith F 33 23.5 8.8 4.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.3 11.8 31 25 1.2 2.2 59.1 46.2 66.7 1.33 285.6 65.9
Reese Holliday Reese Holliday F 34 26.1 7.5 5.9 1.1 0.3 0.1 1.8 1.1 12.0 -24 25 -1.0 -1.8 53.8 50.0 64.0 -3.61 254.0 65.4
Ryan Majerle Ryan Majerle G 12 22.5 5.2 1.8 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.7 0.0 8.0 -2 8 -0.2 -0.6 0 0 0 0.51 0 0
Delino Dear Delino Dear F 32 13.7 3.5 2.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.2 5.4 -12 22 -0.5 -1.7 66.7 0 66.7 -2.2 492.0 66.7
Richard Wonnell Richard Wonnell C 25 12.3 1.4 2.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.6 3.0 2 16 0.1 0.5 57.1 0 66.7 -0.41 105.2 57.1
Zack Riddle Zack Riddle - 9 3.2 1.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.4 - - - - 20.0 0 100.0 - 93.5 20.0
A.J. Mathew A.J. Mathew G 29 6.5 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 1.7 11 20 0.6 4.8 33.3 25.0 100.0 -0.27 123.5 41.7
James Ewing James Ewing - 9 3.2 0.4 1.1 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.4 0.3 1.2 - - - - 33.3 0 0 - 66.7 33.3

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG