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Texas Tech

Season: 2027 preview 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017
Also known as: Texas Tech Red Raiders, Texas Tech
Program History
Coach: Grant McCasland

2025 Team Stats (37 games)

80.9
PPG
68.5
Opp
+12.4
Margin
46.6%
FG%
36.7%
3P%
76.0%
FT%
37.1
RPG
16.4
APG
9.6
TO
67.1
Est. poss./game
83.3
Adj PPG
63.4
Adj Opp PPG
#10
Scoring Rank

Model Outputs

2024-2025
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 1435 (#11) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1290 (#15) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +87 elo More → 1154 (#19) HCA +87 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.7 More → +21.5 (#10) HCA +2.7
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.8 More → +20.5 (#12) HCA +2.8
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.872 (#10) -
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +30.6 More → 0.972 (#9) AdjNet +30.6
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +31.0 More → 0.973 (#9) AdjNet +31.0
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 83.3 | AdjD 63.4 More → 0.859 (#10) AdjO 83.3 | AdjD 63.4
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 80.3 | AdjD 67.4 More → 0.764 (#10) AdjO 80.3 | AdjD 67.4
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.905 (#9) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.894 (#10) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 90 | GP 37 More → 1349 (#9) RD 90 | GP 37

2025 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2024-11-05 vs Bethune-Cookman Wildcats W 94 - 61
2024-11-08 vs Northwestern State Demons W 86 - 65
2024-11-13 vs Wyoming Cowboys W 96 - 49
2024-11-18 vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions W 98 - 64
2024-11-21 @ Saint Joseph's Hawks L 77 - 78
2024-11-22 vs Syracuse Orange W 79 - 74
2024-11-29 vs Northern Colorado Bears W 89 - 64
2024-12-04 vs DePaul Blue Demons W 76 - 62
2024-12-08 vs Texas A&M Aggies L 67 - 72
2024-12-16 vs Oral Roberts Golden Eagles W 86 - 50
2024-12-21 vs Lamar Cardinals W 101 - 57
2024-12-31 vs UCF Knights L 83 - 87
2025-01-04 @ Utah Utes W 93 - 65
2025-01-07 @ BYU Cougars W 72 - 67
2025-01-11 vs Iowa State Cyclones L 84 - 85
2025-01-14 @ Kansas State Wildcats W 61 - 57
2025-01-18 vs Arizona Wildcats W 70 - 54
2025-01-21 @ Cincinnati Bearcats W 81 - 71
2025-01-26 vs Oklahoma State Cowboys W 64 - 54
2025-01-29 vs TCU Horned Frogs W 71 - 57
2025-02-01 @ Houston Cougars W 82 - 81
2025-02-04 vs Baylor Bears W 73 - 59
2025-02-08 @ Arizona Wildcats L 73 - 82
2025-02-12 vs Arizona State Sun Devils W 111 - 106
2025-02-15 @ Oklahoma State Cowboys W 93 - 55
2025-02-18 @ TCU Horned Frogs L 66 - 69
2025-02-22 vs West Virginia Mountaineers W 73 - 51
2025-02-24 vs Houston Cougars L 61 - 69
2025-03-01 @ Kansas Jayhawks W 78 - 73
2025-03-05 vs Colorado Buffaloes W 91 - 75
2025-03-08 @ Arizona State Sun Devils W 85 - 57
2025-03-13 vs Baylor Bears W 76 - 74
2025-03-14 vs Arizona Wildcats L 80 - 86
2025-03-20 vs UNC Wilmington Seahawks W 82 - 72
2025-03-22 vs Drake Bulldogs W 77 - 64
2025-03-27 vs Arkansas Razorbacks W 85 - 83
2025-03-29 @ Florida Gators L 79 - 84

2025 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM GP PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
JT Toppin JT Toppin - 33 27.3 18.2 9.4 1.2 0.8 1.5 1.5 13.5 16.1 - - - - 55.4 32.7 67.6 - 59.7 57.4
Dar. Williams Dar. Williams - 34 30.1 15.1 5.5 3.6 1.3 0.4 1.9 12.5 11.4 248 34 7.3 15.3 43.9 34.0 83.6 3.34 54.2 49.5
Chance Mcmillian Chance Mcmillian - 31 32.8 14.2 4.0 1.8 0.7 0.1 1.0 9.3 10.6 - - - - 52.3 43.3 88.5 - 68.5 64.6
Christian Anderson Christian Anderson - 35 30.5 10.6 3.0 2.2 1.2 0.1 1.0 7.9 8.2 - - - - 42.9 38.0 80.2 - 59.9 55.8
Elijah Hawkins Elijah Hawkins - 35 31.9 9.1 3.5 6.5 1.5 0.1 2.0 8.1 10.6 - - - - 32.3 31.6 84.2 - 48.7 41.8
Kevin Overton Kevin Overton - 36 22.2 7.8 3.7 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.9 6.2 5.9 101 26 3.9 18.2 42.2 33.1 77.9 0.73 55.3 50.9
Kerwin Walton Kerwin Walton - 37 18.6 6.0 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.4 5.0 2.7 - - - - 38.7 39.6 76.2 - 57.1 55.6
Dev. Cambridge Dev. Cambridge - 6 17.5 5.5 3.5 0.3 0.3 0.0 1.0 3.7 5.0 97 3 32.3 38.3 59.1 57.1 75.0 0.04 69.4 68.2
Federiko Federiko Federiko Federiko - 35 18.9 5.1 4.5 0.7 0.4 0.8 0.7 2.9 7.9 73 27 2.7 14.3 74.3 0 49.2 0.37 70.4 74.3
Eemeli Yalaho Eemeli Yalaho - 8 11.2 3.2 2.4 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.5 2.2 4.0 98 4 24.5 92.2 55.6 50.0 42.9 -0.34 61.7 63.9
Jack Francis Jack Francis - 11 1.7 0.2 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 7 6 1.2 73.4 33.3 0.0 0 -1.37 33.3 33.3
Leon Horner Leon Horner - 9 2.6 0.2 0.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.4 -10 3 -3.3 -187.5 25.0 0.0 0 -1.6 25.0 25.0
Corbin Green Corbin Green - 9 1.4 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.8 -5 4 -1.2 -52.4 0 0 50.0 -1.37 56.8 0
Jazz Henderson Jazz Henderson G 0 - 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG

2024-2025 Shot Zones

949 located field-goal attempts in 15 games (ESPN). Each zone is coloured by the player with the largest share of the team's made-shot points there (left) and of its misses there (right).

Toppin50% Toppin43% Toppin50% Williams50% Toppin47% Anderson33% Walton43% Walton25% Anderson29% Anderson26%
Points: who the team's points here most likely come from
Toppin41% Toppin41% Williams37% Williams30% Anderson35% Anderson27% Hawkins18% Walton25% Anderson24% Anderson22%
Misses: who misses most here

JT ToppinDar. WilliamsChristian AndersonKerwin WaltonElijah Hawkins

Zone FGM-FGA FG% Pts Top scorer Runner-up Most misses Runner-up
Restricted area 127-176 72.2 254 JT Toppin 50% (128 pts) Dar. Williams 14% (36 pts) JT Toppin 41% (20 misses) Dar. Williams 22% (11 misses)
Paint (non-RA) 109-244 44.7 218 JT Toppin 43% (94 pts) Dar. Williams 28% (60 pts) JT Toppin 41% (55 misses) Dar. Williams 24% (33 misses)
Mid-range left 8-27 29.6 16 JT Toppin 50% (8 pts) Chance Mcmillian 12% (2 pts) Dar. Williams 37% (7 misses) Kevin Overton 21% (4 misses)
Mid-range center 4-14 28.6 8 Dar. Williams 50% (4 pts) Chance Mcmillian 25% (2 pts) Dar. Williams 30% (3 misses) Elijah Hawkins 30% (3 misses)
Mid-range right 15-38 39.5 30 JT Toppin 47% (14 pts) Christian Anderson 27% (8 pts) Christian Anderson 35% (8 misses) JT Toppin 26% (6 misses)
Left corner 3 9-24 37.5 27 Christian Anderson 33% (9 pts) Dar. Williams 22% (6 pts) Christian Anderson 27% (4 misses) Dar. Williams 20% (3 misses)
Right corner 3 14-36 38.9 42 Kerwin Walton 43% (18 pts) Dar. Williams 29% (12 pts) Elijah Hawkins 18% (4 misses) Kerwin Walton 18% (4 misses)
Above-break 3 left 40-133 30.1 120 Kerwin Walton 25% (30 pts) Kevin Overton 22% (27 pts) Kerwin Walton 25% (23 misses) Elijah Hawkins 23% (21 misses)
Above-break 3 center 42-114 36.8 126 Christian Anderson 29% (36 pts) Elijah Hawkins 21% (27 pts) Christian Anderson 24% (17 misses) Elijah Hawkins 18% (13 misses)
Above-break 3 right 54-143 37.8 162 Christian Anderson 26% (42 pts) Kerwin Walton 26% (42 pts) Christian Anderson 22% (20 misses) Elijah Hawkins 17% (15 misses)