South Alabama Jaguars

Season: 2027 preview 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016

Also known as: South Alabama Jaguars

Program History

2026 Team Stats (36 games)

67.6

PPG

67.6

Opp

+0.0

Margin

41.0%

FG%

31.6%

3P%

67.8%

FT%

40.1

RPG

13.5

APG

19.5

72.6

Est. poss./game

64.8

Adj PPG

65.3

Adj Opp PPG

#173

Scoring Rank

Model Outputs

2025-2026

Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model	Output	Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More →	930 (#212)	-
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More →	926 (#231)	-
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +106 elo More →	984 (#203)	HCA +106 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.4 More →	-0.5 (#173)	HCA +2.4
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.6 More →	+1.7 (#147)	HCA +2.6
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More →	0.500 (#172)	-
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff +0.0 More →	0.500 (#172)	NetEff +0.0
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -0.2 More →	0.493 (#172)	AdjNet -0.2
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -0.3 More →	0.492 (#171)	AdjNet -0.3
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 64.8 \| AdjD 65.3 More →	0.490 (#173)	AdjO 64.8 \| AdjD 65.3
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 65.2 \| AdjD 63.8 More →	0.532 (#138)	AdjO 65.2 \| AdjD 63.8
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More →	0.497 (#172)	Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More →	0.505 (#169)	Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 105 \| GP 36 More →	967 (#202)	RD 105 \| GP 36

2026 Schedule & Results

Date	Vs/At	Opponent	Result	Score
2025-11-03	vs	Akron Zips	W	87 - 63
2025-11-08	@	UAB Blazers	W	91 - 68
2025-11-11	vs	Memphis Tigers	L	68 - 76
2025-11-14	vs	North Florida Ospreys	W	83 - 46
2025-11-20	vs	Florida Atlantic Owls	W	70 - 63
2025-11-25	vs	Kennesaw State Owls	W	66 - 54
2025-11-30	vs	Florida A&M Rattlers	W	75 - 54
2025-12-04	@	Louisiana Tech Lady Techsters	L	80 - 82
2025-12-07	@	Florida Gators	L	61 - 75
2025-12-14	vs	North Alabama Lions	W	70 - 58
2025-12-18	@	Southern Miss Lady Eagles	L	65 - 84
2025-12-20	@	Arkansas State Red Wolves	L	61 - 74
2026-01-01	@	UL Monroe Warhawks	L	44 - 61
2026-01-03	@	Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns	W	81 - 56
2026-01-08	vs	Arkansas State Red Wolves	L	67 - 107
2026-01-10	vs	UL Monroe Warhawks	W	73 - 67
2026-01-17	@	Coastal Carolina Chanticleers	L	59 - 63
2026-01-22	vs	Georgia State Panthers	L	75 - 78
2026-01-24	vs	Georgia Southern Eagles	L	46 - 69
2026-01-29	@	App State Mountaineers	L	57 - 60
2026-01-31	@	James Madison Dukes	L	52 - 88
2026-02-04	vs	Marshall Thundering Herd	L	60 - 69
2026-02-07	@	Western Michigan Broncos	L	67 - 73
2026-02-12	vs	Texas State Bobcats	L	63 - 69
2026-02-14	vs	Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns	L	54 - 57
2026-02-18	@	Troy Trojans	L	73 - 84
2026-02-21	@	Texas State Bobcats	W	64 - 59
2026-02-25	vs	Southern Miss Lady Eagles	W	57 - 43
2026-02-27	vs	Troy Trojans	W	76 - 69
2026-03-03	vs	App State Mountaineers	W	68 - 57
2026-03-04	@	Coastal Carolina Chanticleers	W	80 - 70
2026-03-05	@	Texas State Bobcats	W	69 - 59
2026-03-06	@	Marshall Thundering Herd	W	73 - 58
2026-03-07	@	James Madison Dukes	L	54 - 79
2026-03-21	@	Alcorn State Lady Braves	W	73 - 65
2026-03-24	@	Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons	L	72 - 77

2026 Roster

Show Alumni

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player	Pos	GP	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TO	FGA	Numbers	PM	PM GP	PM/G	PM/40	FG%	3P%	FT%	RAPM	TS%	eFG%
Amyah Sutton	G	35	27.5	11.6	1.8	1.8	1.3	0.1	2.5	11.2	2.9	-84	29	-2.9	-4.4	35.5	30.6	67.9	-2.71	47.2	44.4
Chaze Harris	F	35	26.2	11.0	8.7	0.5	1.0	1.7	1.6	8.9	12.5	-17	29	-0.6	-0.9	53.7	26.3	52.9	0.72	55.1	54.5
Daniela Gonzalez	F	35	34.5	9.9	4.8	2.7	1.3	0.5	3.1	8.7	7.5	-55	29	-1.9	-2.3	37.0	37.6	64.2	-0.11	50.3	47.2
Tamara Ortiz	G	33	25.5	9.2	2.9	2.4	1.1	0.1	3.2	8.2	4.2	-44	27	-1.6	-2.6	32.5	28.3	77.3	0.22	47.0	39.1
Diawna Carter-Hartley	F	36	28.3	8.8	6.3	2.0	1.5	0.5	2.3	7.8	8.8	-44	29	-1.5	-2.2	41.3	31.4	68.4	-0.22	50.2	47.0
Chrysta Narcisse	G	35	26.7	8.2	4.9	2.3	1.1	0.3	3.5	6.7	6.6	-35	28	-1.2	-2.0	42.1	35.9	77.0	-0.19	52.7	47.0
Ronaltha Marc	G	35	16.2	4.7	1.9	1.5	0.5	0.0	1.4	4.3	2.9	4	28	0.1	0.4	44.0	33.3	69.2	-0.5	49.4	46.0
Jeriyah Baines	F	13	5.6	3.4	1.0	0.4	0.2	0.1	0.9	2.8	1.3	-5	9	-0.6	-5.7	48.6	50.0	66.7	-2.76	55.5	54.1
Alicia Spann	C	36	10.7	3.4	2.7	0.3	0.2	0.2	0.9	2.7	3.1	-17	29	-0.6	-2.3	53.1	0.0	65.5	0.12	55.6	53.1
Miyah Holmes	G	7	8.3	1.9	0.7	0.0	0.4	0.0	0.6	1.7	0.7	-	-	-	-	50.0	0	50.0	0.24	50.5	50.0
Princess Okafor Nweze	F	13	7.5	1.4	1.3	0.3	0.2	0.2	0.5	0.8	2.1	-21	8	-2.6	-12.7	63.6	0	30.8	-3.33	53.8	63.6
Aroa Mangas	G	17	7.8	1.2	0.8	0.5	0.2	0.1	0.3	1.8	0.8	0	14	0.0	0.0	25.8	20.0	0	-1.87	33.9	33.9
Chloe Donnell	G	11	2.6	0.7	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.2	1.2	-0.3	-11	7	-1.6	-27.5	15.4	0.0	100.0	-4.33	27.1	15.4
Saneea Bevley	G	0	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Terren Coffil	G	0	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG

2025-2026 Shot Zones

2143 located field-goal attempts in 36 games (ESPN). Each zone is coloured by the player with the largest share of the team's made-shot points there (left) and of its misses there (right).

Points: who the team's points here most likely come from

Misses: who misses most here

Amyah SuttonChaze HarrisDaniela GonzalezChrysta Narcisse

Zone	FGM-FGA	FG%	Pts	Top scorer	Runner-up	Most misses	Runner-up
Restricted area	327-566	57.8	654	Chaze Harris 34% (222 pts)	Diawna Carter-Hartley 12% (78 pts)	Chaze Harris 30% (71 misses)	Diawna Carter-Hartley 14% (34 misses)
Paint (non-RA)	201-513	39.2	402	Chaze Harris 25% (100 pts)	Chrysta Narcisse 15% (62 pts)	Chaze Harris 18% (55 misses)	Tamara Ortiz 15% (47 misses)
Mid-range left	57-129	44.2	114	Amyah Sutton 25% (28 pts)	Chrysta Narcisse 23% (26 pts)	Amyah Sutton 29% (21 misses)	Chrysta Narcisse 19% (14 misses)
Mid-range center	15-59	25.4	30	Chrysta Narcisse 47% (14 pts)	Amyah Sutton 33% (10 pts)	Daniela Gonzalez 25% (11 misses)	Amyah Sutton 14% (6 misses)
Mid-range right	36-106	34.0	72	Chrysta Narcisse 25% (18 pts)	Diawna Carter-Hartley 22% (16 pts)	Chrysta Narcisse 19% (13 misses)	Ronaltha Marc 19% (13 misses)
Left corner 3	25-82	30.5	75	Amyah Sutton 28% (21 pts)	Daniela Gonzalez 24% (18 pts)	Amyah Sutton 32% (18 misses)	Diawna Carter-Hartley 18% (10 misses)
Right corner 3	24-64	37.5	72	Amyah Sutton 38% (27 pts)	Tamara Ortiz 21% (15 pts)	Amyah Sutton 35% (14 misses)	Tamara Ortiz 18% (7 misses)
Above-break 3 left	96-290	33.1	288	Daniela Gonzalez 35% (102 pts)	Amyah Sutton 23% (66 pts)	Daniela Gonzalez 31% (61 misses)	Amyah Sutton 25% (49 misses)
Above-break 3 center	27-98	27.6	81	Amyah Sutton 26% (21 pts)	Chaze Harris 19% (15 pts)	Amyah Sutton 25% (18 misses)	Tamara Ortiz 21% (15 misses)
Above-break 3 right	71-236	30.1	213	Amyah Sutton 35% (75 pts)	Daniela Gonzalez 21% (45 pts)	Amyah Sutton 36% (60 misses)	Tamara Ortiz 16% (27 misses)