Model Predictions
| Model | South Alabama Jaguars | Texas State Bobcats | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 51.6% | 48.4% | -6.0 | ✓ (4.0 off) |
| Bradley-Terry | 56.3% | 43.7% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 59.8% | 40.2% | -4.4 | ✓ (5.6 off) |
| Pythagorean | 76.5% | 23.5% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 75.5% | 24.5% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 75.4% | 24.6% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 58.8% | 41.2% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Texas State Bobcats -10 (59-69). Ratings: 2025-26 season-end ratings.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
South Alabama Jaguars
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diawna Carter-Hartley * | 39 | 4-10 | 2-6 | 1-2 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 10 | - |
| Tamara Ortiz * | 32 | 5-13 | 3-6 | 9-9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 22 | 15 | - |
| Chrysta Narcisse * | 32 | 3-9 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 5 | - |
| Alicia Spann * | 30 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 3 | - |
| Ronaltha Marc * | 29 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 12 | - |
| Jeriyah Baines | 13 | 5-9 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 7 | - |
| Aroa Mangas | 13 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - |
| Princess Okafor Nweze | 11 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Chloe Donnell | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
Texas State Bobcats
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KP Parr * | 40 | 4-12 | 0-1 | 7-9 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 9 | - |
| Kyra Anderson * | 37 | 5-8 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 18 | - |
| Saniya Burks * | 32 | 3-11 | 2-9 | 3-3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 5 | - |
| Deja Jones * | 23 | 2-3 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 9 | - |
| Angela Carroll * | 23 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 8 | - |
| Mia Galbraith | 28 | 1-9 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -6 | - |
| Amyria Walker | 9 | 2-6 | 1-2 | 0-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | - |
| Kaliyah Murphy | 7 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -1 | - |
| Taleiyah Gibbs | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter