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North Carolina

Season: 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017
Also known as: North Carolina Tar Heels
Program History
Coach: Roy Williams

2016 Team Stats (31 games)

82.7
PPG
69.7
Opp
+12.9
Margin
47.8%
FG%
31.4%
3P%
74.9%
FT%
41.2
RPG
17.8
APG
10.9
TO
84.6
Pace

Model Outputs

2015-2016
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 1566 (#43) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1560 (#26) -
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.8 More → +40.7 (#12) HCA +2.8
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.839 (#5) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff +15.5 More → 0.848 (#3) NetEff +15.5
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +21.9 More → 0.926 (#2) AdjNet +21.9
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +22.0 More → 0.927 (#2) AdjNet +22.0

2016 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2015-11-15 vs Fairfield Stags W 92 - 65
2015-11-21 @ Northern Iowa Panthers L 67 - 71
2015-11-23 vs Northwestern Wildcats W 80 - 69
2015-12-06 vs Davidson Wildcats W 98 - 65
2015-12-16 vs Tulane Green Wave W 96 - 72
2015-12-19 vs UCLA Bruins W 89 - 76
2015-12-21 vs App State Mountaineers W 94 - 70
2015-12-28 vs UNC Greensboro Spartans W 96 - 63
2015-12-30 vs Clemson Tigers W 80 - 69
2016-01-02 vs Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets W 86 - 78
2016-01-04 @ Florida State Seminoles W 106 - 90
2016-01-09 @ Syracuse Orange W 84 - 73
2016-01-16 vs NC State Wolfpack W 67 - 55
2016-01-20 vs Wake Forest Demon Deacons W 83 - 68
2016-01-24 @ Virginia Tech Hokies W 75 - 70
2016-01-30 vs Boston College Eagles W 89 - 62
2016-02-01 @ Louisville Cardinals L 65 - 71
2016-02-06 @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish L 76 - 80
2016-02-09 @ Boston College Eagles W 68 - 65
2016-02-14 vs Pittsburgh Panthers W 85 - 64
2016-02-17 vs Duke Blue Devils L 73 - 74
2016-02-20 vs Miami Hurricanes W 96 - 71
2016-02-24 @ NC State Wolfpack W 80 - 68
2016-02-27 @ Virginia Cavaliers L 74 - 79
2016-02-29 vs Syracuse Orange W 75 - 70
2016-03-05 @ Duke Blue Devils W 76 - 72
2016-03-10 vs Pittsburgh Panthers W 88 - 71
2016-03-11 vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish W 78 - 47
2016-03-12 vs Virginia Cavaliers W 61 - 57
2016-03-17 vs Florida Gulf Coast Eagles W 83 - 67
2016-03-19 vs Providence Friars W 85 - 66
2016-03-25 vs Indiana Hoosiers W 101 - 86
2016-03-27 vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish W 88 - 74
2016-04-02 vs Syracuse Orange W 83 - 66
2016-04-04 vs Villanova Wildcats L 74 - 77

2016 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
B. Johnson B. Johnson F 35 28.6 17.3 10.6 1.5 1.1 1.5 1.9 10.1 20.1 124 4.6 4.3 60.5 0 79.1 1.9 71.9 60.5
J. Berry II J. Berry II G 35 30.4 12.9 3.4 3.8 1.3 0.2 1.4 9.1 11.1 - - - 43.3 37.7 89.4 1.69 63.4 51.9
Justin Jackson Justin Jackson - 35 28.4 12.3 4.1 2.7 0.5 0.4 1.0 9.8 9.2 108 5.1 5.4 46.9 28.1 67.1 1.76 57.6 50.9
M. Paige M. Paige G 32 31.5 12.1 2.5 3.8 1.2 0.4 1.2 9.2 9.5 78 3.0 4.0 39.0 32.8 76.7 1.61 59.3 48.8
I. Hicks I. Hicks F 35 18.4 8.9 4.7 0.6 0.5 0.6 1.3 5.1 8.9 116 5.8 9.3 60.0 0 74.3 1.58 69.7 60.0
K. Meeks K. Meeks F 28 19.5 8.3 5.8 0.9 0.7 0.9 1.2 6.0 9.4 44 2.2 3.3 54.5 0 66.0 1.36 61.8 54.5
N. Britt N. Britt G 34 14.9 5.1 1.4 1.8 0.6 0.0 0.9 4.4 3.7 69 3.0 4.3 37.6 32.3 83.7 1.5 52.1 44.6
Theo Pinson Theo Pinson - 35 18.1 4.4 3.0 2.9 0.7 0.1 1.1 3.3 6.6 27 1.2 1.8 41.7 25.0 70.4 1.33 55.9 47.0
J. James J. James F 32 7.7 2.1 2.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.8 2.5 11 1.4 2.4 45.6 0 44.4 0.62 51.6 45.6
L. Maye L. Maye F 28 5.6 1.4 1.6 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 1.3 1.8 - - - 40.5 33.3 45.5 0.07 47.8 43.2
K. Williams K. Williams G 27 4.0 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.7 -30 -4.3 -5.5 36.8 9.1 100.0 0.81 48.5 39.5
S. White S. White G 15 1.8 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 - - - 16.7 0.0 50.0 - 21.8 16.7
J. Coleman J. Coleman G 14 1.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 -5 -0.7 -0.9 25.0 0.0 50.0 0.82 30.7 25.0
K. Coker K. Coker G 11 1.2 0.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 - - - 33.3 0.0 0 - 33.3 33.3
S. Dalton S. Dalton G 16 1.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 -0.3 - - - 14.3 0.0 0 - 14.3 14.3
T. Egbuna T. Egbuna F 14 1.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 -0.3 - - - 0.0 0.0 0 - 0.0 0.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG