Model Predictions
| Model | North Carolina Tar Heels | NC State Wolfpack | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 52.5% | 47.5% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 44.9% | 55.1% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 66.1% | 33.9% | -3.7 | ✓ (8.3 off) |
| Pythagorean | 65.9% | 34.1% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 94.0% | 6.0% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 89.9% | 10.1% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 90.0% | 10.0% | - | ✓ |
Actual: NC State Wolfpack -12 (68-80). Predictions use season-end ratings.
North Carolina Tar Heels
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Paige * | 33 | 4-9 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 4 | +2.4 |
| B. Johnson * | 32 | 9-17 | 0-0 | 4-5 | 11 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 22 | 20 | +0.4 |
| J. Jackson * | 27 | 7-12 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 14 | - |
| J. Berry II * | 27 | 3-7 | 0-1 | 5-5 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 11 | +14.4 |
| K. Meeks * | 24 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 9 | - |
| T. Pinson | 23 | 3-6 | 0-2 | 1-1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 6 | - |
| I. Hicks | 18 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 9 | +14.2 |
| N. Britt | 13 | 0-5 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | +0.1 |
| J. James | 3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | - |
NC State Wolfpack
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Martin | 25 | 3-9 | 3-9 | 2-2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 8 | - |
| C. Barber * | 39 | 12-26 | 1-5 | 7-7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 32 | 12 | -9.8 |
| A. Abu * | 32 | 6-12 | 0-0 | 3-3 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 11 | - |
| M. Rowan * | 31 | 2-12 | 2-8 | 2-3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | -2 | -11.9 |
| C. Martin * | 30 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - |
| B. Anya * | 28 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | - |
| L. Freeman | 15 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -10.7 |
* = starter