Model Predictions
| Model | North Carolina Tar Heels | Virginia Cavaliers | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 25.7% | 74.3% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 34.7% | 65.3% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 50.5% | 49.5% | -0.1 | ✗ (5.1 off) |
| Pythagorean | 49.0% | 51.0% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 60.7% | 39.3% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 49.6% | 50.4% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 49.6% | 50.4% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Virginia Cavaliers +5 (79-74). Predictions use season-end ratings.
North Carolina Tar Heels
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Williams | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| J. Berry II * | 35 | 8-15 | 5-9 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 14 | +0.2 |
| B. Johnson * | 35 | 5-9 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 11 | +4.3 |
| M. Paige * | 35 | 4-13 | 3-7 | 2-2 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 9 | +0.2 |
| J. Jackson * | 27 | 5-9 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 7 | - |
| K. Meeks * | 19 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 5 | -0.0 |
| I. Hicks | 19 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 10 | +3.7 |
| T. Pinson | 14 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1-4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | - |
| N. Britt | 10 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +3.6 |
| L. Maye | 5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - |
| J. James | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
Virginia Cavaliers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Brogdon * | 38 | 9-16 | 3-5 | 5-5 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 26 | 21 | - |
| L. Perrantes * | 37 | 3-10 | 2-5 | 4-4 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 7 | +2.4 |
| A. Gill * | 35 | 6-11 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 13 | +1.5 |
| I. Wilkins * | 30 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 10 | - |
| D. Hall * | 27 | 3-11 | 2-4 | 3-5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 4 | +2.4 |
| M. Shayok | 14 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | -1.3 |
| M. Tobey | 9 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 5 | +2.4 |
| J. Reuter | 5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| D. Thompson | 4 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | -1.5 |
| E. Nolte | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter