Model Predictions
| Model | North Carolina Tar Heels | Duke Blue Devils | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 15.3% | 84.7% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 29.2% | 70.8% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 25.9% | 74.1% | +5.8 | ✗ (9.8 off) |
| Pythagorean | 53.6% | 46.4% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 78.7% | 21.3% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 75.1% | 24.9% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 75.0% | 25.0% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Duke Blue Devils -4 (72-76). Predictions use season-end ratings.
North Carolina Tar Heels
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Johnson * | 35 | 6-15 | 0-0 | 6-6 | 21 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 18 | 26 | +4.8 |
| J. Berry II * | 35 | 3-11 | 2-9 | 4-4 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 7 | +2.7 |
| M. Paige * | 33 | 3-10 | 1-8 | 4-4 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 10 | +3.7 |
| J. Jackson * | 31 | 4-16 | 1-5 | 4-5 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 2 | - |
| K. Meeks * | 24 | 6-12 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 13 | +2.1 |
| T. Pinson | 21 | 2-3 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 11 | - |
| N. Britt | 12 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | - |
| I. Hicks | 9 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -4 | - |
Duke Blue Devils
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G. Allen * | 40 | 11-28 | 6-11 | 1-2 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 29 | 10 | - |
| M. Plumlee * | 37 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 1-5 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 14 | - |
| M. Jones * | 36 | 2-8 | 1-7 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | - |
| B. Ingram * | 29 | 3-12 | 1-5 | 3-4 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 9 | - |
| D. Thornton * | 15 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | - |
| L. Kennard | 36 | 6-13 | 4-9 | 4-4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 14 | - |
| C. Jeter | 7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter