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Murray State

Season: 2027 preview 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017
Also known as: Murray State Racers, Murray State
Program History
Coach: Matt McMahon

Model Outputs

2018-2019
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. Historical Elo fit predates the season cutoff fix and has no verified season-bounded input receipt. More → Data withheld: source-integrity hold Historical Elo fit predates the season cutoff fix and has no verified season-bounded input receipt.
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1280 (#20) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +83 elo More → 1185 (#10) HCA +83 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.8 More → +10.1 (#55) HCA +2.8
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.7 More → +11.1 (#41) HCA +2.7
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.865 (#13) -
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +13.2 More → 0.821 (#57) AdjNet +13.2
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +13.2 More → 0.822 (#57) AdjNet +13.2
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 77.0 | AdjD 67.0 More → 0.711 (#51) AdjO 77.0 | AdjD 67.0
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 77.1 | AdjD 67.1 More → 0.712 (#22) AdjO 77.1 | AdjD 67.1
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.788 (#35) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.788 (#31) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 119 | GP 31 More → 1272 (#24) RD 119 | GP 31

2019 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2018-11-10 vs Wright State Raiders W 73 - 54
2018-11-16 vs Spalding Pelicans W 106 - 36
2018-11-24 vs Missouri State Bears W 77 - 66
2018-11-26 @ Alabama Crimson Tide L 72 - 78
2018-12-01 vs Prairie View A&M Panthers W 83 - 67
2018-12-08 @ Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders W 64 - 42
2018-12-12 @ Southern Illinois Salukis W 80 - 52
2018-12-15 vs Jackson State Tigers W 74 - 57
2018-12-18 vs Evansville Purple Aces W 66 - 64
2018-12-22 @ Auburn Tigers L 88 - 93
2018-12-29 vs Bethel (TN) Wildcats W 110 - 82
2019-01-03 vs Morehead State Eagles W 90 - 69
2019-01-05 vs Eastern Kentucky Colonels W 97 - 85
2019-01-10 @ UT Martin Skyhawks W 98 - 77
2019-01-12 @ Southeast Missouri State Redhawks W 85 - 67
2019-01-17 @ Eastern Illinois Panthers W 83 - 61
2019-01-19 @ SIU Edwardsville Cougars W 82 - 72
2019-01-24 vs Belmont Bruins L 66 - 79
2019-01-26 vs Tennessee State Tigers W 100 - 62
2019-01-31 @ Jacksonville State Gamecocks L 68 - 88
2019-02-02 @ Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles W 67 - 63
2019-02-07 vs Eastern Illinois Panthers W 86 - 75
2019-02-09 vs SIU Edwardsville Cougars W 86 - 55
2019-02-14 @ Austin Peay Governors W 73 - 71
2019-02-16 @ Eastern Kentucky Colonels W 102 - 70
2019-02-21 vs UT Martin Skyhawks W 85 - 75
2019-02-23 vs Southeast Missouri State Redhawks W 103 - 67
2019-02-28 @ Morehead State Eagles W 71 - 52
2019-03-02 vs Austin Peay Governors W 94 - 83
2019-03-08 vs Jacksonville State Gamecocks W 76 - 74
2019-03-09 @ Belmont Bruins W 77 - 65
2019-03-21 @ Marquette Golden Eagles W 83 - 64
2019-03-23 @ Florida State Seminoles L 62 - 90

2019 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM GP PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Ja Morant Ja Morant - 29 36.6 24.7 5.6 9.8 1.9 0.8 5.3 3.2 34.3 448 29 15.4 17.6 50.0 45.5 86.0 5.91 323.2 55.4
S. Buchanan S. Buchanan F 29 33.6 13.0 4.0 1.8 1.8 0.6 1.4 2.5 17.4 399 29 13.8 16.8 45.8 37.9 66.7 1.13 239.8 53.5
Tevin Brown Tevin Brown G 29 32.6 11.4 4.8 2.2 1.2 0.5 1.2 2.0 16.9 414 29 14.3 18.0 50.8 50.0 90.9 2.12 259.2 69.5
Darnell Cowart Darnell Cowart F 29 20.8 10.9 6.4 1.2 0.8 0.3 1.2 1.9 16.5 285 29 9.8 19.6 46.4 0.0 57.7 3.25 233.5 46.4
Anthony Smith Anthony Smith F 5 18.0 7.6 5.0 0.8 0.0 1.6 1.0 0.0 14.0 - - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0
KJ Williams KJ Williams - 28 17.9 7.5 4.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 1.1 11.7 255 27 9.4 21.2 71.0 0 53.8 1.74 287.3 71.0
Devin Gilmore Devin Gilmore F 22 10.2 3.9 3.0 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.5 7.5 88 19 4.6 17.1 50.0 0 75.0 0.06 312.5 50.0
Jaiveon Eaves Jaiveon Eaves G 26 9.9 3.5 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.5 4.2 47 25 1.9 7.9 15.4 11.1 100.0 -1.83 331.4 19.2
Mike Davis Mike Davis F 23 14.6 3.3 2.7 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.7 0.4 6.2 80 23 3.5 10.1 10.0 14.3 50.0 -0.54 344.7 15.0
Brion Sanchious Brion Sanchious F 29 17.9 2.7 3.1 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.2 6.4 112 28 4.0 9.0 28.6 0 80.0 -5.11 423.9 28.6
Brion Whitley Brion Whitley - 3 5.0 2.0 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3 1.3 -1 24 0.0 -0.2 25.0 50.0 75.0 -5.29 52.1 37.5
DaQuan Smith DaQuan Smith - 3 5.0 1.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.3 0.3 - - - - 0.0 0.0 0 - 150.0 0.0
Jalen Johnson Jalen Johnson - 16 3.1 0.9 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.6 - - - - 50.0 0.0 0 - 350.0 50.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG