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Washington Mystics

Also known as: Washington Mystics
Program History

2016 Team Stats (34 games)

80.7
PPG
82.2
Opp
-1.5
Margin
42.3%
FG%
35.8%
3P%
80.0%
FT%
32.7
RPG
17.4
APG
11.8
TO
79.6
Est. poss./game
79.4
Adj PPG
80.7
Adj Opp PPG
#9
Scoring Rank

Model Outputs

2016
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More โ†’ 899 (#10) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More โ†’ 926 (#10) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +51 elo More โ†’ 942 (#10) HCA +51 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.5 More โ†’ -1.3 (#9) HCA +2.5
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.7 More โ†’ +0.6 (#6) HCA +3.7
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More โ†’ 0.448 (#9) -
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -1.7 More โ†’ 0.451 (#9) AdjNet -1.7
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -1.7 More โ†’ 0.451 (#9) AdjNet -1.7
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 79.4 | AdjD 80.7 More โ†’ 0.470 (#9) AdjO 79.4 | AdjD 80.7
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 79.8 | AdjD 79.3 More โ†’ 0.512 (#6) AdjO 79.8 | AdjD 79.3
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More โ†’ 0.438 (#10) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More โ†’ 0.447 (#9) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 165 | GP 34 More โ†’ 915 (#10) RD 165 | GP 34

2016 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2016-05-14 vs New York Liberty L 76 - 87
2016-05-18 vs Dallas Wings L 77 - 87
2016-05-20 vs Los Angeles Sparks L 67 - 97
2016-05-21 @ Connecticut Sun W 84 - 76
2016-05-26 @ Seattle Storm W 84 - 82
2016-05-29 @ Phoenix Mercury L 77 - 93
2016-06-01 vs Chicago Sky L 78 - 86
2016-06-03 @ Chicago Sky L 72 - 98
2016-06-05 @ Atlanta Dream W 86 - 79
2016-06-08 @ Dallas Wings W 87 - 79
2016-06-11 vs Minnesota Lynx L 76 - 83
2016-06-14 @ Connecticut Sun W 109 - 106
2016-06-18 vs Atlanta Dream W 95 - 65
2016-06-22 vs Indiana Fever W 76 - 62
2016-06-24 vs Phoenix Mercury L 79 - 91
2016-06-26 vs Minnesota Lynx W 87 - 63
2016-06-29 vs San Antonio Stars W 84 - 67
2016-07-01 @ Chicago Sky L 84 - 86
2016-07-06 @ San Antonio Stars L 70 - 77
2016-07-10 @ Los Angeles Sparks L 82 - 93
2016-07-13 @ Phoenix Mercury L 74 - 78
2016-07-15 @ Seattle Storm L 51 - 80
2016-07-20 vs New York Liberty L 81 - 88
2016-07-22 vs Los Angeles Sparks L 75 - 95
2016-08-27 @ Indiana Fever W 92 - 69
2016-08-28 vs San Antonio Stars L 74 - 85
2016-09-02 @ Minnesota Lynx L 69 - 75
2016-09-04 @ Dallas Wings W 88 - 83
2016-09-07 vs Chicago Sky W 118 - 81
2016-09-09 vs Seattle Storm L 76 - 81
2016-09-11 vs Indiana Fever L 73 - 80
2016-09-13 @ New York Liberty W 75 - 62
2016-09-15 @ Atlanta Dream L 91 - 94
2016-09-18 vs Connecticut Sun L 78 - 87

2016 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM GP PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
T. Hill T. Hill G 33 29.1 15.5 2.6 2.9 1.2 0.1 1.2 12.5 8.5 - - - - 35.6 35.2 82.9 - 51.6 43.1
Emma Meesseman Emma Meesseman C 34 29.2 15.2 5.6 2.3 1.2 0.7 1.3 11.6 12.2 - - - - 53.3 44.8 80.0 - 60.0 57.1
S. Dolson S. Dolson C 36 22.4 9.1 4.7 1.1 0.4 0.9 1.2 7.1 7.9 - - - - 48.8 29.0 83.3 - 56.2 50.6
I. Latta I. Latta G 22 20.7 8.3 1.7 1.9 0.4 0.0 1.4 7.5 3.3 - - - - 33.1 30.5 90.9 - 49.1 42.8
T. Ruffin-Pratt T. Ruffin-Pratt G 34 24.2 7.4 4.3 2.7 1.0 0.3 1.6 6.3 7.8 - - - - 37.4 30.2 73.3 - 48.4 41.1
Jeff Hagen Jeff Hagen - 4 17.5 7.2 3.0 0.2 0.8 2.5 0.8 4.5 8.5 - - - - 50.0 0 84.6 - 61.1 50.0
Kahleah Copper Kahleah Copper G 32 16.2 6.8 3.2 0.8 0.5 0.1 1.1 5.3 4.9 - - - - 43.2 46.7 72.2 - 53.2 47.3
B. Hartley B. Hartley G 24 16.9 6.5 2.0 2.2 0.4 0.0 1.5 5.5 4.2 - - - - 37.6 36.2 80.0 - 51.4 45.5
Kia Vaughn Kia Vaughn C 36 19.6 6.1 4.3 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.9 5.5 5.8 - - - - 50.3 0 73.3 - 52.3 50.3
Leilani Mitchell Leilani Mitchell Forward 10 16.1 5.9 1.7 1.9 0.1 0.0 1.3 4.6 3.7 - - - - 43.5 35.5 80.0 - 58.5 55.4
Natasha Cloud Natasha Cloud G 33 24.1 5.8 3.0 3.7 0.8 0.2 1.5 5.2 6.8 - - - - 35.3 33.8 75.4 - 48.3 42.4
Tianna Hawkins Tianna Hawkins F 26 11.0 5.0 2.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 1.0 3.7 3.7 - - - - 51.0 50.0 87.0 - 60.8 56.8
Z. Dimitrakou Z. Dimitrakou F 4 13.2 4.2 1.8 1.0 0.5 0.2 1.2 4.8 1.8 - - - - 26.3 33.3 100.0 - 39.3 28.9
L. Galdeira L. Galdeira G 2 14.5 4.0 2.5 1.5 0.5 0.0 7.0 4.0 -2.5 - - - - 25.0 0.0 57.1 - 36.1 25.0
D. Grant D. Grant G 2 6.0 3.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 1.0 2.5 0.0 - - - - 40.0 0 100.0 - 51.0 40.0
A. Malott A. Malott F 25 8.5 2.6 1.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.7 2.4 1.7 - - - - 35.0 36.8 76.9 - 50.2 46.7
J. Weisner J. Weisner G 7 3.7 1.7 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.3 0.7 - - - - 44.4 50.0 100.0 - 60.7 55.6
C. Lee C. Lee F 2 10.0 0.5 3.0 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.5 0.5 3.5 - - - - 0.0 0 50.0 - 26.6 0.0
J. Payne J. Payne G 1 14.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 4.0 -2.0 - - - - 0.0 0.0 0 - 0.0 0.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

Not enough players with both Numbers/Game and RAPM to plot.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG

2016 Shot Zones

2369 located field-goal attempts in 36 games (ESPN). Each zone is coloured by the player with the largest share of the team's made-shot points there (left) and of its misses there (right).

Meesseman22% Meesseman32% Meesseman32% Dolson34% Dolson24% Malott33% Latta29% Hill29% Meesseman28% Hill28%
Points: who the team's points here most likely come from
Hill20% Meesseman21% Meesseman25% Dolson22% Dolson16% Cloud23% Hill38% Hill32% Hill21% Hill25%
Misses: who misses most here

Emma MeessemanT. HillS. DolsonNatasha CloudI. LattaA. Malott

Zone FGM-FGA FG% Pts Top scorer Runner-up Most misses Runner-up
Restricted area 360-648 55.6 720 Emma Meesseman 22% (156 pts) T. Hill 15% (106 pts) T. Hill 20% (59 misses) Emma Meesseman 15% (44 misses)
Paint (non-RA) 131-353 37.1 262 Emma Meesseman 32% (84 pts) Kia Vaughn 19% (50 pts) Emma Meesseman 21% (46 misses) T. Hill 17% (37 misses)
Mid-range left 105-272 38.6 210 Emma Meesseman 32% (68 pts) T. Hill 14% (30 pts) Emma Meesseman 25% (42 misses) T. Hill 13% (22 misses)
Mid-range center 58-118 49.2 116 S. Dolson 34% (40 pts) Kahleah Copper 14% (16 pts) S. Dolson 22% (13 misses) T. Hill 15% (9 misses)
Mid-range right 119-301 39.5 238 S. Dolson 24% (56 pts) Emma Meesseman 16% (38 pts) S. Dolson 16% (30 misses) T. Hill 14% (25 misses)
Left corner 3 6-19 31.6 18 A. Malott 33% (6 pts) B. Hartley 17% (3 pts) Natasha Cloud 23% (3 misses) B. Hartley 15% (2 misses)
Right corner 3 7-15 46.7 21 I. Latta 29% (6 pts) Natasha Cloud 29% (6 pts) T. Hill 38% (3 misses) I. Latta 25% (2 misses)
Above-break 3 left 98-232 42.2 294 T. Hill 29% (84 pts) Emma Meesseman 14% (42 pts) T. Hill 32% (43 misses) I. Latta 15% (20 misses)
Above-break 3 center 40-136 29.4 120 Emma Meesseman 28% (33 pts) Natasha Cloud 15% (18 pts) T. Hill 21% (20 misses) I. Latta 18% (17 misses)
Above-break 3 right 86-275 31.3 258 T. Hill 28% (72 pts) I. Latta 14% (36 pts) T. Hill 25% (47 misses) I. Latta 17% (32 misses)