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UCF

Season: 2027 preview 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017
Also known as: UCF Knights, UCF
Program History
Coach: Donnie Jones

2016 Team Stats (2 games)

68.0
PPG
76.5
Opp
-8.5
Margin
41.7%
FG%
31.8%
3P%
64.0%
FT%
36.5
RPG
12.0
APG
16.5
TO
-
Est. poss./game
69.0
Adj PPG
69.5
Adj Opp PPG
#171
Scoring Rank

Model Outputs

2015-2016
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 913 (#221) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 935 (#219) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +98 elo More → 891 (#307) HCA +98 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.9 More → -0.2 (#170) HCA +2.9
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.9 More → -1.8 (#193) HCA +2.9
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.386 (#225) -
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -0.2 More → 0.495 (#167) AdjNet -0.2
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -0.1 More → 0.496 (#167) AdjNet -0.1
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 69.0 | AdjD 69.5 More → 0.488 (#171) AdjO 69.0 | AdjD 69.5
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 65.3 | AdjD 69.6 More → 0.403 (#257) AdjO 65.3 | AdjD 69.6
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.423 (#202) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.406 (#216) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 132 | GP 30 More → 947 (#206) RD 132 | GP 30

2016 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2015-11-14 @ Davidson Wildcats L 85 - 90
2015-11-18 vs UC Irvine Anteaters L 60 - 61
2015-11-21 vs UNC Greensboro Spartans W 65 - 54
2015-11-28 @ Miami (OH) RedHawks L 63 - 64
2015-12-02 @ Stetson Hatters W 94 - 85
2015-12-05 vs UIC Flames W 88 - 58
2015-12-08 vs Massachusetts Minutemen W 67 - 63
2015-12-12 vs Florida Atlantic Owls W 75 - 61
2015-12-19 @ Detroit Mercy Titans L 89 - 95
2015-12-22 vs Bethune-Cookman Wildcats W 101 - 96
2015-12-29 vs George Washington Revolutionaries L 50 - 67
2016-01-02 @ East Carolina Pirates W 71 - 68
2016-01-06 vs South Florida Bulls W 75 - 64
2016-01-10 @ SMU Mustangs L 73 - 88
2016-01-16 vs East Carolina Pirates W 89 - 69
2016-01-20 @ South Florida Bulls W 64 - 54
2016-01-24 @ Tulsa Golden Hurricane L 60 - 75
2016-01-26 vs Memphis Tigers L 86 - 97
2016-01-31 vs UConn Huskies L 41 - 67
2016-02-04 @ Tulane Green Wave W 70 - 62
2016-02-06 vs Temple Owls L 60 - 62
2016-02-09 vs Cincinnati Bearcats L 51 - 69
2016-02-13 @ Houston Cougars L 58 - 82
2016-02-17 @ Memphis Tigers L 56 - 73
2016-02-21 vs Tulsa Golden Hurricane L 67 - 75
2016-02-24 vs Houston Cougars L 61 - 88
2016-02-27 @ Temple Owls L 61 - 63
2016-03-02 vs Tulane Green Wave W 73 - 65
2016-03-06 @ UConn Huskies L 46 - 67
2016-03-10 vs Tulane Green Wave L 63 - 65

2016 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM GP PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
A.J. Davis A.J. Davis F 28 31.2 12.1 5.9 3.0 0.9 0.5 2.8 2.1 17.6 -47 26 -1.8 -2.5 34.5 35.3 82.8 1.82 239.5 39.7
Adonys Henriquez Adonys Henriquez G 24 32.1 10.3 3.2 2.0 0.6 0.1 1.1 1.9 13.4 14 23 0.6 0.9 37.8 43.3 70.0 0.95 251.0 52.2
Daiquan Walker Daiquan Walker G 28 28.4 8.4 3.6 3.9 1.1 0.1 2.1 1.6 13.4 -50 26 -1.9 -3.1 42.2 33.3 61.5 -1.41 231.7 50.0
Matt Williams Matt Williams G 28 25.9 7.9 2.6 0.9 0.4 0.0 0.8 2.0 9.0 -53 26 -2.0 -3.7 43.6 35.3 80.0 -0.02 194.1 54.5
Tacko Fall Tacko Fall - 28 18.0 7.8 6.0 0.4 0.1 2.4 1.6 0.6 14.4 64 26 2.5 6.2 64.7 0 70.0 4.81 509.3 64.7
Justin McBride Justin McBride C 26 11.8 6.1 3.9 0.2 0.2 0.5 1.5 1.2 8.3 -70 24 -2.9 -10.6 66.7 0 50.0 -3.11 200.4 66.7
Shaheed Davis Shaheed Davis F 28 19.4 6.1 4.5 0.7 0.2 0.2 1.6 1.0 9.1 -84 26 -3.2 -7.4 32.1 23.1 33.3 -2.25 266.0 37.5
Chance McSpadden Chance McSpadden G 28 16.2 5.6 1.6 1.6 0.5 0.1 1.7 1.1 6.6 -107 26 -4.1 -12.3 45.2 36.4 77.8 -5.5 226.0 51.6
Tanksley Efianayi Tanksley Efianayi G 26 13.7 3.8 1.6 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.4 0.7 5.4 -57 24 -2.4 -7.9 27.8 12.5 60.0 0.52 242.6 30.6
Staphon Blair Staphon Blair F 26 9.6 3.0 2.8 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.6 5.3 -109 24 -4.5 -24.0 50.0 0 66.7 -6.16 211.9 50.0
Djordjije Mumin Djordjije Mumin G 6 2.5 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.8 - - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0
Chad Brown Chad Brown F 14 4.1 0.4 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3 1.2 -8 12 -0.7 -6.8 0.0 0 0 -0.38 62.5 0.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG