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San Diego State Aztecs

Season: 2027 preview 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017
Also known as: San Diego State Aztecs
Program History
Coach: Brian Dutcher

2018 Team Stats (7 games)

76.3
PPG
68.4
Opp
+7.9
Margin
44.2%
FG%
34.0%
3P%
72.1%
FT%
38.6
RPG
13.6
APG
12.4
TO
-
Est. poss./game
75.9
Adj PPG
64.5
Adj Opp PPG
#42
Scoring Rank

Model Outputs

2017-2018
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 1284 (#40) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1162 (#69) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +95 elo More → 1136 (#22) HCA +95 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.9 More → +12.1 (#42) HCA +2.9
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.8 More → +14.0 (#25) HCA +2.8
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.789 (#34) -
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +16.9 More → 0.875 (#45) AdjNet +16.9
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +17.0 More → 0.878 (#45) AdjNet +17.0
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 75.9 | AdjD 64.5 More → 0.737 (#42) AdjO 75.9 | AdjD 64.5
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 74.0 | AdjD 63.7 More → 0.718 (#19) AdjO 74.0 | AdjD 63.7
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.799 (#28) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.796 (#25) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 111 | GP 32 More → 1201 (#47) RD 111 | GP 32

2018 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2017-11-10 vs San Diego Christian Hawks W 91 - 52
2017-11-14 @ Arizona State Sun Devils L 68 - 90
2017-11-17 vs McNeese Cowboys W 83 - 52
2017-11-20 vs Eastern Illinois Panthers W 94 - 63
2017-11-23 @ Sacramento State Hornets W 89 - 52
2017-11-24 vs Georgia Bulldogs W 75 - 68
2017-11-26 vs Washington State Cougars L 86 - 93
2017-11-30 @ San Diego Toreros W 66 - 57
2017-12-03 vs Bradley Braves W 75 - 52
2017-12-09 vs California Golden Bears L 62 - 63
2017-12-21 vs Gonzaga Bulldogs W 72 - 70
2017-12-27 @ Wyoming Cowboys L 69 - 82
2017-12-30 vs Utah State Aggies W 79 - 59
2018-01-02 @ Colorado State Rams W 77 - 68
2018-01-09 vs San José State Spartans W 85 - 49
2018-01-13 @ Boise State Broncos L 80 - 83
2018-01-17 vs Fresno State Bulldogs L 73 - 77
2018-01-20 @ New Mexico Lobos L 75 - 79
2018-01-24 vs Colorado State Rams W 97 - 78
2018-01-27 @ UNLV Rebels L 78 - 88
2018-02-03 vs Air Force Falcons W 81 - 50
2018-02-06 @ Fresno State Bulldogs L 61 - 79
2018-02-10 @ Nevada Wolf Pack L 58 - 83
2018-02-14 vs Wyoming Cowboys W 87 - 77
2018-02-17 vs UNLV Rebels W 94 - 56
2018-02-21 @ Air Force Falcons W 67 - 56
2018-02-24 @ San José State Spartans W 71 - 59
2018-02-27 vs Boise State Broncos W 72 - 64
2018-03-03 vs Nevada Wolf Pack W 79 - 74
2018-03-08 @ Fresno State Bulldogs W 64 - 52
2018-03-09 @ Nevada Wolf Pack W 90 - 73
2018-03-10 @ New Mexico Lobos W 82 - 75
2018-03-15 @ Houston Cougars L 65 - 67

2018 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM GP PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
M. Pope M. Pope F 30 26.6 12.6 6.7 1.3 0.7 1.2 1.8 3.8 16.8 216 24 9.0 14.6 52.2 54.5 58.3 5.46 146.3 54.9
D. Watson D. Watson G 31 31.4 12.5 2.6 3.6 0.9 0.0 1.8 3.5 14.4 184 25 7.4 10.3 38.3 36.0 77.8 2.71 153.0 46.7
J. McDaniels J. McDaniels - 31 25.4 11.1 7.8 0.9 0.9 0.5 1.1 2.6 17.5 165 25 6.6 11.2 53.8 22.2 77.8 1.81 171.8 55.0
M. Mitchell M. Mitchell F 31 27.1 10.9 3.9 1.7 1.1 0.2 2.0 3.0 12.9 150 25 6.0 9.9 50.0 44.6 76.5 -0.83 157.5 63.6
T. Kell T. Kell G 26 28.7 10.3 4.0 4.2 1.2 0.2 1.5 3.9 14.5 151 23 6.6 9.9 41.2 31.4 76.4 0.52 106.6 46.6
J. Hemsley J. Hemsley G 30 21.7 7.3 1.7 1.9 0.6 0.2 1.7 2.3 7.6 73 24 3.0 6.5 42.9 33.3 61.1 1.3 127.0 50.7
M. Montana M. Montana F 24 16.1 6.5 3.0 0.8 0.2 0.2 0.7 1.5 8.4 -18 20 -0.9 -2.5 27.0 21.4 50.0 -3.23 191.3 35.1
M. Gill-Caesar M. Gill-Caesar G 6 11.5 4.5 2.5 0.7 0.3 0.2 1.5 1.7 5.0 15 5 3.0 12.2 20.0 40.0 83.3 -0.34 106.8 30.0
N. Narain N. Narain F 21 10.2 4.5 1.8 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.8 0.6 5.6 2 18 0.1 0.5 50.0 0.0 50.0 -1.07 321.0 50.0
J. Schakel J. Schakel - 31 13.9 3.1 2.0 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.3 0.8 5.1 29 25 1.2 3.8 20.0 23.5 60.0 -1.74 165.0 28.0
K. Rooks K. Rooks C 26 10.9 3.0 3.5 0.3 0.2 0.8 0.4 0.9 6.4 45 21 2.1 9.3 66.7 0 70.6 0.51 122.3 66.7
M. Sohikish M. Sohikish G 9 2.6 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.6 -2 6 -0.3 -7.7 50.0 0 0 -0.92 100.0 50.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG