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Murray State

Season: 2027 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018
Also known as: Murray State Racers, Murray State
Program History
Coach: Matt McMahon

2019 Team Stats (5 games)

76.2
PPG
70.0
Opp
+6.2
Margin
46.6%
FG%
37.7%
3P%
70.5%
FT%
36.2
RPG
17.2
APG
13.8
TO
-
Est. poss./game
77.0
Adj PPG
67.0
Adj Opp PPG
#51
Scoring Rank

Model Outputs

2018-2019
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. Historical Elo fit predates the season cutoff fix and has no verified season-bounded input receipt. More → Data withheld: source-integrity hold Historical Elo fit predates the season cutoff fix and has no verified season-bounded input receipt.
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1280 (#20) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +83 elo More → 1185 (#10) HCA +83 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.8 More → +10.1 (#55) HCA +2.8
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.7 More → +11.1 (#41) HCA +2.7
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.865 (#13) -
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +13.2 More → 0.821 (#57) AdjNet +13.2
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +13.2 More → 0.822 (#57) AdjNet +13.2
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 77.0 | AdjD 67.0 More → 0.711 (#51) AdjO 77.0 | AdjD 67.0
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 77.1 | AdjD 67.1 More → 0.712 (#22) AdjO 77.1 | AdjD 67.1
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.788 (#35) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.788 (#31) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 119 | GP 31 More → 1272 (#24) RD 119 | GP 31

2019 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2018-11-10 vs Wright State Raiders W 73 - 54
2018-11-16 vs Spalding Pelicans W 106 - 36
2018-11-24 vs Missouri State Bears W 77 - 66
2018-11-26 @ Alabama Crimson Tide L 72 - 78
2018-12-01 vs Prairie View A&M Panthers W 83 - 67
2018-12-08 @ Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders W 64 - 42
2018-12-12 @ Southern Illinois Salukis W 80 - 52
2018-12-15 vs Jackson State Tigers W 74 - 57
2018-12-18 vs Evansville Purple Aces W 66 - 64
2018-12-22 @ Auburn Tigers L 88 - 93
2018-12-29 vs Bethel (TN) Wildcats W 110 - 82
2019-01-03 vs Morehead State Eagles W 90 - 69
2019-01-05 vs Eastern Kentucky Colonels W 97 - 85
2019-01-10 @ UT Martin Skyhawks W 98 - 77
2019-01-12 @ Southeast Missouri State Redhawks W 85 - 67
2019-01-17 @ Eastern Illinois Panthers W 83 - 61
2019-01-19 @ SIU Edwardsville Cougars W 82 - 72
2019-01-24 vs Belmont Bruins L 66 - 79
2019-01-26 vs Tennessee State Tigers W 100 - 62
2019-01-31 @ Jacksonville State Gamecocks L 68 - 88
2019-02-02 @ Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles W 67 - 63
2019-02-07 vs Eastern Illinois Panthers W 86 - 75
2019-02-09 vs SIU Edwardsville Cougars W 86 - 55
2019-02-14 @ Austin Peay Governors W 73 - 71
2019-02-16 @ Eastern Kentucky Colonels W 102 - 70
2019-02-21 vs UT Martin Skyhawks W 85 - 75
2019-02-23 vs Southeast Missouri State Redhawks W 103 - 67
2019-02-28 @ Morehead State Eagles W 71 - 52
2019-03-02 vs Austin Peay Governors W 94 - 83
2019-03-08 vs Jacksonville State Gamecocks W 76 - 74
2019-03-09 @ Belmont Bruins W 77 - 65
2019-03-21 @ Marquette Golden Eagles W 83 - 64
2019-03-23 @ Florida State Seminoles L 62 - 90

2019 Roster

Minutes by Position

Each player's share of the team's minutes per game (season minutes over the roster's), placed by position, so every column is one game's minutes. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM GP PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Ja Morant Ja Morant - 29 37.4 25.0 5.8 9.8 1.8 0.8 5.3 5.2 32.7 448 29 15.4 17.6 48.7 42.5 81.7 5.91 198.1 54.3
S. Buchanan S. Buchanan F 29 34.4 13.1 4.3 1.7 1.8 0.6 1.4 3.7 16.4 399 29 13.8 16.8 45.8 30.0 73.1 1.13 160.4 51.4
Tevin Brown Tevin Brown G 29 33.1 11.5 4.8 2.2 1.1 0.6 1.2 2.8 16.2 414 29 14.3 18.0 46.2 45.2 90.9 2.12 196.8 63.7
Darnell Cowart Darnell Cowart F 29 20.8 10.9 6.6 1.2 0.8 0.4 1.1 2.4 16.2 285 29 9.8 19.6 42.3 0.0 56.8 3.25 180.5 42.3
KJ Williams KJ Williams F 28 18.0 7.3 4.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.6 1.4 11.1 255 27 9.4 21.2 68.4 0 60.0 1.74 229.8 68.4
Anthony Smith Anthony Smith F 4 20.0 6.0 5.0 0.2 0.0 1.8 1.2 0.8 11.0 - - - - 100.0 0 100.0 - 309.3 100.0
Devin Gilmore Devin Gilmore F 21 9.7 3.4 2.7 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.8 6.3 88 19 4.6 17.1 43.8 0.0 75.0 0.06 184.4 43.8
Mike Davis Mike Davis F 23 14.6 3.3 2.7 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.6 0.8 5.7 80 23 3.5 10.1 21.1 23.1 66.7 -0.54 173.3 28.9
Jaiveon Eaves Jaiveon Eaves G 26 9.2 3.2 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.7 3.3 47 25 1.9 7.9 27.8 28.6 100.0 -1.83 219.8 38.9
Brion Sanchious Brion Sanchious F 29 18.4 2.6 3.0 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.9 0.4 6.0 112 28 4.0 9.0 27.3 0 80.0 -5.11 287.9 27.3
Brion Whitley Brion Whitley G 6 7.0 1.8 0.3 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 1.3 0.8 -1 24 0.0 -0.2 37.5 40.0 50.0 -5.29 51.7 50.0
DaQuan Smith DaQuan Smith G 3 5.0 1.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.3 0.3 - - - - 0.0 0.0 0 - 150.0 0.0
Jalen Johnson Jalen Johnson - 14 2.0 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.9 - - - - 50.0 0.0 0 - 250.0 50.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG