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Cal Poly

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Also known as: Cal Poly Mustangs
Program History
Coach: Mike DeGeorge

2011 Team Stats (2 games)

60.5
PPG
55.5
Opp
+5.0
Margin
37.1%
FG%
38.2%
3P%
69.8%
FT%
34.5
RPG
10.5
APG
19.0
TO
-
Est. poss./game
56.9
Adj PPG
58.3
Adj Opp PPG
#186
Scoring Rank

Model Outputs

2010-2011
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 847 (#251) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 934 (#218) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +91 elo More → 959 (#236) HCA +91 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +3.0 More → -1.4 (#183) HCA +3.0
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.8 More → -2.1 (#203) HCA +2.8
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.439 (#195) -
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -3.9 More → 0.390 (#202) AdjNet -3.9
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -3.9 More → 0.390 (#201) AdjNet -3.9
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 56.9 | AdjD 58.3 More → 0.468 (#186) AdjO 56.9 | AdjD 58.3
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 58.9 | AdjD 60.1 More → 0.474 (#193) AdjO 58.9 | AdjD 60.1
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.405 (#218) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.406 (#223) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 140 | GP 25 More → 874 (#261) RD 140 | GP 25

2011 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2010-11-14 @ Seattle U Redhawks W 76 - 60
2010-11-18 vs CS Monterey Bay Otters L 47 - 50
2010-11-21 @ Montana State Bobcats L 57 - 73
2010-11-24 vs Loyola Marymount Lions W 55 - 48
2010-11-27 @ Sacramento State Hornets L 67 - 71
2010-12-01 vs Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors W 54 - 53
2010-12-04 @ Loyola Marymount Lions L 48 - 67
2010-12-11 @ UCLA Bruins L 61 - 72
2010-12-13 @ San Diego State Aztecs L 45 - 51
2010-12-18 @ California Golden Bears L 41 - 51
2010-12-21 @ Pepperdine Waves W 70 - 64
2010-12-30 vs Long Beach State Beach L 53 - 69
2011-01-06 @ Pacific Tigers W 43 - 39
2011-01-08 @ UC Davis Aggies W 48 - 43
2011-01-15 vs UC Irvine Anteaters L 53 - 65
2011-01-20 @ UC Riverside Highlanders W 65 - 60
2011-01-22 @ Cal State Northridge Matadors L 65 - 80
2011-01-27 vs UC Santa Barbara Gauchos L 70 - 71
2011-01-29 @ Cal State Bakersfield Roadrunners W 77 - 61
2011-02-03 vs UC Davis Aggies W 65 - 56
2011-02-16 vs Cal State Northridge Matadors W 72 - 49
2011-02-19 vs Northern Arizona Lumberjacks L 56 - 59
2011-02-24 @ Long Beach State Beach L 55 - 61
2011-02-26 @ Cal State Fullerton Titans W 75 - 70
2011-03-05 @ UC Santa Barbara Gauchos L 43 - 49
2011-03-10 vs UC Riverside Highlanders L 66 - 70

2011 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM GP PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Shawn Lewis Shawn Lewis G 14 32.2 17.1 5.6 2.2 1.2 0.4 2.9 6.1 17.6 43 28 1.5 2.2 44.2 34.2 72.7 1.22 119.4 51.7
David Hanson David Hanson F 14 34.6 14.9 6.6 2.1 1.1 0.1 1.2 5.6 18.0 38 28 1.4 1.7 41.0 37.5 71.4 1.91 124.2 50.6
Will Donahue Will Donahue C 14 30.1 8.7 8.8 1.1 0.4 0.1 2.0 2.4 14.6 24 28 0.9 1.2 52.9 0 47.4 -1.13 144.0 52.9
Chris O'Brien Chris O'Brien G 14 27.0 6.0 3.6 2.0 0.6 0.4 1.4 2.6 8.6 32 25 1.3 2.0 24.3 11.8 100.0 0.36 102.5 27.0
Maliik Love Maliik Love G 14 26.1 5.6 2.5 1.5 0.6 0.1 1.2 1.6 7.5 28 28 1.0 1.6 27.3 0.0 72.7 -0.7 145.3 27.3
Dylan Royer Dylan Royer G 8 6.2 3.6 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.4 0.8 3.2 10 11 0.9 8.3 83.3 80.0 0.0 -0.14 225.2 116.7
Jamal Johnson Jamal Johnson G 14 16.2 3.3 0.9 1.4 0.5 0.0 1.1 1.5 3.4 -27 28 -1.0 -3.6 42.9 40.0 57.1 -3.55 95.5 57.1
Drake U'u Drake U'u G 8 10.4 2.9 2.2 0.5 0.9 0.1 1.1 0.8 4.8 9 17 0.5 1.9 16.7 0.0 100.0 -0.08 167.2 16.7
Matt Titchenal Matt Titchenal G 7 7.6 2.4 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.1 1.0 -27 12 -2.2 -11.1 33.3 41.7 25.0 -2.99 50.7 50.0
Jordan Lewis Jordan Lewis F 14 18.2 2.1 2.1 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.7 0.9 4.0 -23 28 -0.8 -2.0 41.7 60.0 50.0 -2.48 109.0 54.2
Ben Eisenhardt Ben Eisenhardt F 11 3.9 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.9 3 17 0.2 2.0 0.0 0.0 0 -0.52 100.0 0.0
Ryan Pembleton Ryan Pembleton C 4 3.0 0.2 0.8 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 -23 13 -1.8 -16.8 0.0 0 0 -2.91 50.0 0.0
Ben Kelly Ben Kelly G-F 2 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.5 -1.0 -17 6 -2.8 -28.2 0.0 0.0 0 -2.54 0.0 0.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG