Model Predictions
| Model | Cal Poly Mustangs | San Diego State Aztecs | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 2.3% | 97.7% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 13.8% | 86.2% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 2.7% | 97.3% | +19.7 | ✓ (13.7 off) |
| Pythagorean | 33.7% | 66.3% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 13.9% | 86.1% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 1.0% | 99.0% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 1.0% | 99.0% | - | ✓ |
Actual: San Diego State Aztecs +6 (51-45). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Cal Poly Mustangs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Hanson | 38 | 3-12 | 2-5 | 4-5 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 2 | - |
| W. Donahue | 37 | 4-12 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 3 | - |
| S. Lewis | 35 | 4-14 | 3-10 | 3-3 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 9 | - |
| M. Love | 25 | 0-3 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -2 | - |
| C. O'Brien | 22 | 1-3 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | - |
| J. Lewis | 19 | 2-3 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 8 | - |
| J. Johnson | 15 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | - |
| R. Pembleton | 5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - |
| B. Kelly | 3 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | - |
| D. Royer | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
San Diego State Aztecs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.J. Gay | 39 | 1-11 | 0-7 | 8-8 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 10 | -1 | - |
| J. Rahon | 37 | 6-13 | 0-4 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 6 | - |
| M. Thomas | 36 | 7-9 | 0-0 | 4-6 | 15 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 18 | 32 | - |
| B. White | 26 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 4-4 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 13 | - |
| L. Franklin | 23 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 0 | -3 | - |
| J. Franklin | 20 | 1-4 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 4 | - |
| T. Shelton | 11 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | - |
| B. Carlwell | 4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | - |
| M. Cheriet | 4 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
* = starter