Model Predictions
| Model | Cal Poly Mustangs | San Diego State Aztecs | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 1.8% | 98.2% | +27.5 | ✓ (21.5 off) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.9% | 96.1% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 1.8% | 98.2% | +21.9 | ✓ (15.9 off) |
| Pythagorean | 30.1% | 69.9% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 1.0% | 99.0% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 1.0% | 99.0% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 13.1% | 86.9% | - | ✓ |
Actual: San Diego State Aztecs +6 (51-45). Ratings: 2010-11 season-end ratings.
Cal Poly Mustangs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Hanson * | 38 | 3-12 | 2-5 | 4-5 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 2 | - |
| Will Donahue * | 37 | 4-12 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 3 | - |
| Shawn Lewis * | 35 | 4-14 | 3-10 | 3-3 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 9 | - |
| Maliik Love * | 25 | 0-3 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -2 | - |
| Chris O'Brien * | 22 | 1-3 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | - |
| Jordan Lewis | 19 | 2-3 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 8 | - |
| Jamal Johnson | 15 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | - |
| Ryan Pembleton | 5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - |
| Ben Kelly | 3 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | - |
| Dylan Royer | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
San Diego State Aztecs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.J. Gay * | 39 | 1-11 | 0-7 | 8-8 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 10 | -1 | - |
| James Rahon * | 37 | 6-13 | 0-4 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 6 | - |
| Malcolm Thomas * | 36 | 7-9 | 0-0 | 4-6 | 15 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 18 | 32 | - |
| Billy White * | 26 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 4-4 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 13 | - |
| LaBradford Franklin * | 23 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 0 | -3 | - |
| Jamaal Franklin | 20 | 1-4 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 4 | - |
| Tim Shelton | 11 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | - |
| Brian Carlwell | 4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | - |
| Mehdi Cheriet | 4 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
* = starter