Model Predictions
| Model | Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | Cal Poly Mustangs | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 19.2% | 80.8% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 39.9% | 60.1% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 24.6% | 75.4% | +6.1 | ✗ (9.1 off) |
| Pythagorean | 52.5% | 47.5% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 2.2% | 97.8% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 74.8% | 25.2% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 75.1% | 24.9% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Cal Poly Mustangs -3 (56-59). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Jones * | 38 | 9-22 | 1-9 | 0-2 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 4 | - |
| S. Johannsen * | 32 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 18 | - |
| S. Saldivar * | 32 | 2-6 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | - |
| G. Rogers * | 27 | 1-8 | 1-3 | 4-4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | - |
| A. Smith * | 15 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 6 | - |
| E. Platt | 28 | 4-6 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 9 | - |
| D. Norman | 16 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 6 | - |
| J. Olubuyi | 9 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | - |
| J. Lepley | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
Cal Poly Mustangs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Lewis * | 36 | 10-15 | 3-6 | 2-5 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 25 | 16 | - |
| D. Hanson * | 32 | 4-15 | 0-6 | 2-4 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 5 | - |
| C. O'Brien * | 29 | 2-7 | 0-2 | 4-4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 5 | - |
| W. Donahue * | 28 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 1-4 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 10 | - |
| M. Love * | 18 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 3 | - |
| J. Johnson | 21 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| J. Lewis | 18 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
| D. U'u | 12 | 1-4 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | - |
| M. Titchenal | 3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
| B. Eisenhardt | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
* = starter