Model Predictions
| Model | UC Davis Aggies | Cal Poly Mustangs | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 38.1% | 61.9% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 30.3% | 69.7% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 26.3% | 73.7% | +5.7 | ✓ (3.3 off) |
| Pythagorean | 44.0% | 56.0% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 37.2% | 62.8% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 37.2% | 62.8% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 37.7% | 62.3% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Cal Poly Mustangs +9 (65-56). Predictions use season-end ratings.
UC Davis Aggies
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Payne * | 37 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 26 | - |
| Todd Lowenthal * | 33 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 8 | - |
| Joe Harden * | 31 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 25 | - |
| Eddie Miller * | 29 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 14 | - |
| Ryan Sypkens * | 21 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | -4 | - |
| Josh Ritchart | 12 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | - |
| Ryan Silva | 10 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Alex Tiffin | 10 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | - |
| Tyler Les | 9 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | - |
| Ryan Howley | 5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | - |
| Mike Kurtz | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
Cal Poly Mustangs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shawn Lewis * | 35 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 23 | 32 | - |
| David Hanson * | 34 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 15 | - |
| Will Donahue * | 32 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 22 | - |
| Maliik Love * | 32 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 13 | - |
| Chris O'Brien * | 15 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | - |
| Jordan Lewis | 25 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 13 | - |
| Drake U'u | 14 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 12 | - |
| Jamal Johnson | 8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| Ben Eisenhardt | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Dylan Royer | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
* = starter