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UC Davis Aggies 56
@
Cal Poly Mustangs 65
2011-02-03

Model Predictions

Model UC Davis Aggies Cal Poly Mustangs Spread Result
Elo 71.7% 28.3% - ✗
Bradley-Terry 58.1% 41.9% - ✗
Margin 39.7% 60.3% +2.3 ✓ (6.7 off)
Pythagorean 40.3% 59.7% - ✓
Efficiency 1.0% 99.0% - ✓
Adjusted Efficiency 23.7% 76.3% - ✓
Log Adjusted 23.5% 76.5% - ✓

Actual: Cal Poly Mustangs +9 (65-56). Predictions use season-end ratings.

UC Davis Aggies

Player MIN FG 3PT FT REB AST STL BLK TO PTS Numbers RAPM GS
M. Payne * 37 0-0 0-0 0-0 8 4 1 0 1 14 26 -
T. Lowenthal * 33 0-0 0-0 0-0 6 1 1 0 4 4 8 -
J. Harden * 31 0-0 0-0 0-0 10 0 2 1 4 16 25 -
E. Miller * 29 0-0 0-0 0-0 6 2 0 0 2 8 14 -
R. Sypkens * 21 0-0 0-0 0-0 1 0 0 0 5 0 -4 -
J. Ritchart 12 0-0 0-0 0-0 1 0 0 0 1 5 5 -
R. Silva 10 0-0 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -
A. Tiffin 10 0-0 0-0 0-0 2 0 1 0 2 4 5 -
T. Les 9 0-0 0-0 0-0 0 1 0 0 0 3 4 -
R. Howley 5 0-0 0-0 0-0 2 0 0 0 0 2 4 -
M. Kurtz 3 0-0 0-0 0-0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 -

Cal Poly Mustangs

Player MIN FG 3PT FT REB AST STL BLK TO PTS Numbers RAPM GS
S. Lewis * 35 0-0 0-0 0-0 8 0 2 0 1 23 32 -
D. Hanson * 34 0-0 0-0 0-0 3 3 0 0 1 10 15 -
W. Donahue * 32 0-0 0-0 0-0 9 2 0 0 2 13 22 -
M. Love * 32 0-0 0-0 0-0 2 0 2 0 2 11 13 -
C. O'Brien * 15 0-0 0-0 0-0 1 1 2 0 1 0 3 -
J. Lewis 25 0-0 0-0 0-0 5 1 1 2 0 4 13 -
D. U'u 14 0-0 0-0 0-0 5 2 1 0 0 4 12 -
J. Johnson 8 0-0 0-0 0-0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 -
B. Eisenhardt 3 0-0 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -
D. Royer 2 0-0 0-0 0-0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 -

* = starter