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Arkansas State Red Wolves

Season: 2027 preview 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017
Also known as: Arkansas State Red Wolves
Program History
Coach: Ryan Pannone

2023 Team Stats (33 games)

65.7
PPG
67.6
Opp
-1.9
Margin
43.2%
FG%
35.2%
3P%
67.7%
FT%
33.6
RPG
13.1
APG
11.7
TO
64.3
Est. poss./game
61.5
Adj PPG
67.9
Adj Opp PPG
#282
Scoring Rank

Model Outputs

2022-2023
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 818 (#272) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 852 (#297) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +85 elo More → 930 (#287) HCA +85 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +3.0 More → -6.9 (#283) HCA +3.0
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.0 More → -5.1 (#258) HCA +3.0
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.304 (#288) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff -7.4 More → 0.304 (#288) NetEff -7.4
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -10.3 More → 0.234 (#279) AdjNet -10.3
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -10.4 More → 0.231 (#279) AdjNet -10.4
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 61.5 | AdjD 67.9 More → 0.357 (#282) AdjO 61.5 | AdjD 67.9
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 64.5 | AdjD 67.9 More → 0.423 (#260) AdjO 64.5 | AdjD 67.9
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.323 (#284) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.335 (#283) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 153 | GP 30 More → 861 (#283) RD 153 | GP 30

2023 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2022-11-07 vs Harding Bisons W 86 - 55
2022-11-12 @ LSU Tigers L 52 - 61
2022-11-14 vs Lyon Scots W 82 - 58
2022-11-18 @ UC Davis Aggies L 60 - 75
2022-11-22 vs UT Martin Skyhawks W 70 - 64
2022-11-25 vs Prairie View A&M Panthers L 59 - 67
2022-11-27 vs Bethel (TN) Wildcats W 90 - 65
2022-12-01 vs Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils W 58 - 38
2022-12-06 @ Central Arkansas Bears L 67 - 72
2022-12-09 @ Air Force Falcons L 55 - 80
2022-12-14 vs Southeast Missouri State Redhawks W 68 - 61
2022-12-19 vs Alabama State Hornets W 72 - 65
2022-12-22 vs Little Rock Trojans W 77 - 75
2022-12-29 @ Old Dominion Monarchs W 60 - 57
2022-12-31 vs UL Monroe Warhawks L 72 - 84
2023-01-05 @ South Alabama Jaguars L 45 - 63
2023-01-07 @ Troy Trojans L 54 - 66
2023-01-12 vs Texas State Bobcats L 58 - 61
2023-01-14 vs Southern Miss Golden Eagles L 57 - 74
2023-01-19 vs Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns L 71 - 80
2023-01-21 vs Marshall Thundering Herd L 78 - 87
2023-01-26 @ Southern Miss Golden Eagles L 57 - 73
2023-01-28 @ App State Mountaineers L 51 - 63
2023-02-02 vs South Alabama Jaguars L 62 - 82
2023-02-04 vs Coastal Carolina Chanticleers W 73 - 57
2023-02-09 @ Texas State Bobcats L 62 - 66
2023-02-11 @ Georgia Southern Eagles L 53 - 68
2023-02-16 vs Troy Trojans L 62 - 67
2023-02-18 vs Georgia State Panthers W 75 - 70
2023-02-22 @ Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns L 74 - 85
2023-02-24 @ UL Monroe Warhawks W 64 - 61
2023-02-28 @ Coastal Carolina Chanticleers W 86 - 69
2023-03-02 @ Troy Trojans L 59 - 63

2023 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM GP PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
C. Fields C. Fields - 33 31.7 11.4 3.3 4.6 1.0 0.1 2.5 8.4 9.5 -67 32 -2.1 -2.6 44.4 26.0 69.5 0.93 53.5 46.8
O. El-Sheikh O. El-Sheikh - 33 28.5 11.2 9.5 0.7 1.0 0.7 2.4 8.2 12.5 -116 32 -3.6 -5.1 48.9 14.3 60.2 -4.17 53.3 49.1
Terrance Ford Jr. Terrance Ford Jr. G 32 30.2 10.8 2.5 2.8 1.3 0.0 1.3 8.7 7.5 -91 31 -2.9 -3.9 43.3 40.6 79.5 -1.65 55.3 50.7
M. Davis M. Davis - 32 25.2 9.8 4.1 0.9 0.9 0.3 1.1 8.8 6.0 -45 31 -1.5 -2.3 44.0 32.7 89.5 -0.98 53.9 52.5
Avery Felts Avery Felts G 33 30.6 8.1 2.6 2.2 1.0 0.1 0.6 7.0 6.3 0 32 0.0 0.0 38.4 38.8 78.9 3.37 53.7 51.1
M. Farrington M. Farrington - 17 22.5 7.1 1.6 1.0 0.5 0.1 1.3 6.9 2.1 -32 16 -2.0 -3.6 33.1 38.0 72.7 -0.97 49.3 47.9
Julian Lual Julian Lual G 32 18.2 4.9 3.0 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.8 4.6 4.6 -37 31 -1.2 -2.7 41.5 29.0 75.0 -0.12 48.5 44.6
Izaiyah Nelson Izaiyah Nelson - 33 17.5 4.6 5.0 0.2 0.5 1.3 0.9 3.6 7.2 -34 32 -1.1 -2.5 52.5 0.0 49.1 -1.69 53.1 52.5
C. London C. London - 5 16.0 4.0 1.8 0.6 0.8 0.2 0.8 4.8 1.8 -18 5 -3.6 -8.9 29.2 50.0 75.0 -4.06 38.8 35.4
A. Boutayeb A. Boutayeb - 15 9.3 2.4 1.6 0.3 0.1 0.4 0.7 2.5 1.5 -16 14 -1.1 -4.9 42.1 0 44.4 -3.78 42.9 42.1
N. Tingling N. Tingling - 9 3.7 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.6 -12 7 -1.7 -22.3 40.0 0.0 100.0 -2.54 51.0 40.0
D. Reeves D. Reeves G 6 4.7 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.5 0.8 0.2 -16 6 -2.7 -22.7 20.0 0.0 0 -3.53 20.0 20.0
D. Arnette D. Arnette - 10 3.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.1 -8 8 -1.0 -11.7 0.0 0.0 66.7 -2.47 18.8 0.0
Antwon Jackson Antwon Jackson F 1 2.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 - - - - 0 0 0 -1.8 0 0
Mak Manciel Mak Manciel G 0 - 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG